Why Iran is escalating situation on border with Azerbaijan?
Expert commentary on Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  17 October 2022 - 12:44

"Tehran will respond resolutely to any attempts to change the transit route between Iran and Armenia, President of the Islamic Republic Ebrahim Raisi said at a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart," Raisi's Chief of Staff for Political Affairs Mohammad Jamshidi wrote on Twitter. The meeting between Raisi and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev took place on the margins of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in the Kazakh capital Astana.

Almost immediately afterward, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces, Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour announced a major exercise of the forces in the north of the country.

"In the coming days, a major exercise of IRGC Ground Forces called Ehtedar/Sila will take place on the northern borders of the country in the Aras region of the IRGC Ashura Regional Military Base," the IRGC Ground Forces commander said.

Here it is worth recalling that on October 4, commander of the IRGC Iran's naval forces Ramazan Zirahi called Azerbaijan "one of the places in the region where the enemies of the Islamic Republic get a refuge". And last month it became known about Iran's concentration of armoured units on the border with Azerbaijan and Armenia, during a sharp escalation on the border on September 13-14.

Let us not forget that the military and political leadership of the IRI has repeatedly stated that it "will not tolerate any violent changes to the borders of neighbouring Armenia". But what is the basis for such statements? Is there any claim to the internationally recognized territories of the Republic of Armenia? It is only about the final definition of borders with Azerbaijan and the opening of transport communication with Nakhchivan through the Zangazur corridor. These issues are under discussion. What then is Iran so worried about? And not only "worries", but, as we see, it even takes actions of an almost threatening nature, flexing its muscles on the border with Azerbaijan. What is Tehran seeking in the end?

"It seems to me that the main motive for the Iranian leadership to make such statements is the fear of being left out of the regional game," Igor Semivolos, executive director of the Kyiv-based Centre for Middle East Studies, said in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

The recent developments in the South Caucasus may well lead to a breakthrough in the settlement of long-standing Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish disputes, which would logically raise the question of Iran's role, the expert believes.

Russian-Iranian cooperation, the formation of a North-South communication axis for successful economic and strategic interaction, may find itself in a quandary because of increasing sanctions pressure.

The second, quite realistic aspect has to do with the ongoing protests inside the country, which the Iranian leadership has already dubbed "a provocation inspired from outside". South Azerbaijan has become one of the regions where protests are taking place, and it is possible that troops loyal to the regime are being deployed to the region under the guise of exercises, Semivolos said.

"Taking into account that Tehran has lost its head completely and on top of that decided to try its luck in the war against Ukraine, such actions are very similar to hysteria. As a result, it seems to me that we will not see much 'benefit' from such moves - a foolish and unnecessary waste of funds and resources against the background of a worsening economic crisis and growing protest sentiment.

It is possible that after a short time we will again hear reconciliatory statements, visits to Baku, and assurances of deep friendship and cooperation, as we have done many times in the past. This is, of course, if there is someone to visit", concluded the director of the centre.

Samir Ibrahimov

Caliber.Az