"If necessary, Iran and Russia will use Armenians to prevent stability in the region"
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  05 December 2022 - 15:18

The Russian peacekeepers temporarily deployed in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan have taken another step inconsistent with their powers. Azerbaijani media reported on December 1 that 14 citizens of Iran, who are employees of special services, have illegally entered the zone of their temporary responsibility with the permission of the peacekeepers.

Of course, it is clear that such things do not lead to anything good. They only pave the way for another escalation of tension. But why does the command of the RPC allow them to enter Azerbaijani territory? Could this fact give an impetus to Baku to take measures to set up its border checkpoint at the entrance to Lachin road?

Foreign experts have shared their opinion on this situation with Caliber.Az.

Doctor of military and political sciences Vakhtang Maisaya (Georgia) said it was difficult to understand at once, which country's special services representatives were let into the territory of Azerbaijan.

"The behavior that the so-called Russian peacekeepers are now demonstrating is in fact the main threat not only for Azerbaijan but also for the whole South Caucasus. Because when, during a peacekeeping operation, certain persons with ties to the special services of foreign states are allowed to enter the contingent's area of responsibility, it is possible to assume that a large military provocation is going to take place. It is clear who benefits from such provocations right now. I think that the Kremlin now needs a small victorious war in any region, whether in the Caucasus, Central Asia, or the Middle East, in order to somehow overcome the failures on the Ukrainian front and somehow compensate for them, to regain its status as a world power. I think that they could choose our region as such a place as well. And Russia is trying to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus," the expert said.

As for the individuals who illegally traveled to Azerbaijan, again, it is difficult to say definitely. However, based on who Russia is most friendly with now, from where it receives the appropriate offensive weapons that it uses against Ukraine, it is not difficult to assume their origin, Maisaya said.

"And I think the Russian peacekeepers will soon show their true face. Azerbaijan should be more vigilant and prepare for any military provocations," Maisaya concluded.

In his turn, Gleb Parfenov, head of the security department of the Doctrine Centre for Political Research (Kyiv) said that the actions of the Russian contingent were not aimed at the solution to the problem in Karabakh.

"This is not the first time we can observe this from their side. As it has already become a habit to help Armenian armed formations under the cover of the RPC. Therefore, it is quite possible that it can be the Armenian special services. But it can also be Iranian. Why does Moscow need this? First of all, it does not need peace in the Caucasus since it can lead to the loss of spheres of influence. They are holding on only at the expense of military force and intrigues", the expert noted.

The growing ties between Moscow and Tehran can clearly indicate a decrease in security in the region, the expert believes.

"After all, if they allow Baku to resolve the situation in Karabakh and the construction of a corridor to Nakhchivan, both Russia and Iran will lose from this. Therefore, they are interested in restraining Azerbaijan by any means. And if necessary they will use Armenians to prevent stability in the region. Because stability will emerge only after Azerbaijan takes the situation into its own hands," he said.

Accordingly, Parfenov believes that Baku should make attempts to suppress such activities on the part of the RPC.

"Sooner or later we will see how diplomatically Russia is pushed out of the formula of a peaceful settlement. We are already observing this. Moscow just doesn't want to leave, and we wouldn't want it to bring the situation to bloodshed with its stubbornness," Parfenov concluded.

Caliber.Az