Walking a tightrope between pressure and objectivity
Russia's diplomatic tactics with Armenia

INTERVIEWS  06 May 2024 - 16:45

Russia has applied a new tactic of diplomatic pressure on Armenia, apparently trying to reach Yerevan in this way. As Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told a recent briefing, "Armenia continues to be a full-fledged participant, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and should bear the relevant obligations." At the same time, she made it clear that Moscow is not clinging to Yerevan and sees the future of the CSTO even without the participation of the breakaway "little brother." "We are firmly convinced that under any circumstances the CSTO is and will remain an effective structure responsible for maintaining security in Eurasia, as well as the security of its member states," Zakharova said.

So, what is Zakharova's message aimed at and can it shake up Yerevan? Caliber.Az correspondent asked Russian experts to respond to the question.

According to Russian political scientist Vladislav Gerdin, there is a sense that Moscow is attempting to engage in a double game through the statements made by Zakharova: on one hand, applying pressure on Yerevan by reminding it of its obligations, and on the other hand, making sweeping gestures to indicate that Russia maintains objectivity and grants its Armenian partners the right to choose.

"So, for example, Zakharova really seemed to try to make it clear that Moscow is not a despot and understands everything, and gives Yerevan the opportunity for self-determination. In particular, Zakharova said that she still does not question the sovereign right of Armenian partners to independently determine their foreign policy course, including in the context of further work of the organization, and even reminded that Article 19 of the charter enshrines the possibility of withdrawal from the association. In my opinion, the Kremlin has decided to seriously change tactics and stop begging Yerevan and instead open the front door and show that they can do without it. In this context, the Kremlin is rather switching to the language of strong arguments, making it clear that it is time to make some concrete decisions, choosing sides more clearly, rather than wagging its tail at Russia and the West. In other words, if you are with us, then please fulfill your obligations within the CSTO and don't wiggle, and if you are not, please leave, we will somehow manage without you," the political scientist explained.

However, according to him, there is a sense that while this message is conveyed to Yerevan in a relatively soft manner, Moscow is exerting pressure on Yerevan, albeit not critically.

"It appears that much of this new approach is also attributed to the fact that Moscow's stance has now solidified in light of the West's revised demands on Yerevan. Experts observe that Washington and the EU have adjusted their demands to Armenia, no longer insisting on an immediate severance of ties with Moscow, but instead urging a gentle and gradual approach: for instance, it is advised against for Yerevan to completely withdraw from the EAEU, and even membership in the CSTO should not be hastily abandoned. There is a sense that the West has followed its typical pattern: initially garnering maximum support, then incrementally 'leaking' its partner when certain obligations are fulfilled. In other words, the West is now quite satisfied with Armenia's actions and the dynamics of distancing itself from Russia, and, to all appearances, was afraid of responsibility when, in the negotiations behind the scenes, the Armenian side threw itself on the neck of its Western partners with tears of joy and did not forget to hand over a list of demands as payment for betrayal and change of strategic partnership.

It appears that Armenia's demands are increasing, and the West is hesitant to take on excessive obligations towards Yerevan. The West has come to the conclusion that Armenia is a costly endeavor, whereas Moscow remains willing to provide support. Europe and the United States realize that they cannot afford to support Armenia single-handedly if Russia abruptly severs ties and withdraws economic benefits from Yerevan. This pragmatic understanding is well grasped by the West," Gerdin underlined.

At the same time, according to Russian political scientist, writer and publicist Kirill Sitnikov, all of Yerevan's geopolitical games do not take into account the main thing - the needs of the Armenian people. Yerevan's ambitions are extremely great, but such experiments to change its strategic partner and key ally most often do not lead to good, but only turn out to be a failure. Because such maneuvers, in his opinion, should be conducted very carefully, taking into account the geopolitical situation, and in this case it is not in Yerevan's favor at all.

"It seems to me that Armenia seriously overestimates its capabilities when it tries to blackmail Russia like this, relying on the fact that it is not favorable for Moscow to make a hard and sharp break with Yerevan now, to punish it for building relations with the West and selling allied ideals. Pashinyan's games are a very blatant bluff, and Zakharova's recent statement is actually another reminder of that. Pashinyan clearly underestimates the situation.

And the main thing is that with such pirouettes he is turning the Armenian people into a hostage of his experiments in the geopolitical game. Moreover, the experience of Ukraine has clearly not convinced Pashinyan that it is not worth joking around with Moscow, and things could end very badly. At some point, the West will simply change its priorities and leave Yerevan alone with an angry Moscow. So, in my opinion, Pashinyan should carefully analyze every quote coming from the Russian Foreign Ministry, even if at first glance it is not filled with direct threats. Yerevan should think more about its people, who, as a result of the sharp deterioration of Armenia's economic situation due to Moscow's sanctions, may not withstand such geopolitical experiments and stage another revolution. The people of Armenia are passengers on a bus that is going nowhere, and it seems that they are beginning to realize this themselves,” Sitnikov noted.

Caliber.Az