"The military and political sovereignty of Belarus is under threat"
Caliber.Az conversation with Valery Karbalevich

INTERVIEWS  12 January 2023 - 11:53

Caliber.Az interviewed Valery Karbalevich, a Belarusian expert and candidate in historic sciences.

- Valery Ivanovich, can we say that last year Belarus was involved in the war in Ukraine?

- We surely can. Russia involved Belarus in the war in Ukraine, so last year was quite dramatic for us. Belarus actually became a party to the war in Ukraine, as a ground offensive on Kyiv in 2022, and rocket attacks in the same direction were conducted from its territory, which was considered by the international community as complicity in aggression. On top of all this, as we were Moscow's only ally in this war, Belarus' dependence on Russia increased, and, accordingly, the military and political sovereignty of Belarus was threatened. As a consequence, Russian troops appeared on the territory of Belarus and are still here.

- Will Belarus continue to be involved in this war in some way?

- The probability of full participation of the Belarusian armed forces in this conflict is very low for two reasons. Firstly, Belarusian society has a very negative attitude towards the participation of the Belarusian military in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, the war is going badly for Russia. It is one thing to take part in a victorious war and quite another to realize that it follows an unsuccessful scenario and may end in defeat. Therefore, Minsk's participation in the war is limited to Moscow's support, which consists of the fact that Russian armed forces are stationed on the territory of Belarus, Russian missile systems are launched from here at targets in Ukraine, and there have even been cases when drones were launched from the territory of Belarus as well. Russia uses the entire military infrastructure of Belarus - airfields, railways, hospitals, and ammunition are sent from the territory of Belarus to Donbas, and training of mobilized Russian servicemen is also conducted on the territory of Belarus. I believe the involvement of Minsk in this war will not change in the near future.

- Meanwhile, Kyiv is in no hurry to break diplomatic relations with Minsk. Does this mean that Ukrainian-Belarusian relations have not become hostile after all?

- The relations between Belarus and Ukraine are very tense at this stage. Ukraine views Belarus as an aggressor country. Judging by sociological surveys, the Ukrainians have begun to treat the Belarusians sharply negatively.

When it comes to public policy, bilateral trade has virtually stopped, although Ukraine was Belarus' second-largest trading partner after Russia. Trade between Ukraine and Belarus has been minimized to very low levels. Ukraine confiscated a considerable part of Belarusian companies, and Belarusian assets and our citizens who found themselves in its territory have very serious problems. They are not given residence permits, their bank accounts are confiscated and it is very difficult for citizens with Belarusian passports to enter the territory of Ukraine, although there is still a visa-free regime between the two countries.

Ukraine does not want to break off diplomatic relations with Belarus. The Ukrainian embassy remains in Minsk, so diplomatic relations are maintained. However, the main task of Ukraine is not to allow the Belarusian armed forces to fully participate in the war.

- Do you believe the war will last a long time?

- So far, I do not see any end to this war, because there is a balance of forces - neither side has a strategic advantage, and the positions of the official Russian and Ukrainian authorities are diametrically opposed. Moscow does not want to discuss issues regarding Ukrainian territories already annexed to Russia, while Kyiv does not agree that Ukrainian territories have been lost and acceded to Russia. Therefore, there are no substantive negotiations as such. There is a war of attrition and, unfortunately, it is premature to talk about peace.

- I see. Do you think the European sanctions against Belarus will be tightened any further and how seriously did they shatter the Belarusian economy last year?

- As a result of the EU sanctions, Belarusian GDP fell by 4% last year, and the number of foreign businesses that do not want to do business with Minsk increased. There are problems with banks, which cannot make transfers, and there were difficulties with the export of Belarusian products, which until now have been sent to Baltic ports and now they are blocked. The range of goods in shops has shrunk and become more expensive because of high inflation.

And as for additional tightening of the EU sanctions, Belarus can most likely avoid this fate, unless it engages in a full-fledged war in Ukraine.

- How soon will the construction of Belarusian ports start in Russia?

- So far, the construction of the ports has not started, everything is just under discussion. Russia promises, but there is no concrete progress in this matter. The fact is that so far the main destination for Belarusian exports has been the ports of the Baltic States - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and partially Ukraine. But after the West imposed sanctions, all the ports were closed for the export of Belarusian products. This is why the idea came up to build ports in the Leningrad region in order to export Belarusian products through them. Some of these products do go through Ukrainian ports, but because they are loaded with Russian products and there are no free niches, Belarus and Russia agreed to build new Belarusian ports in Russia.

- At what stage is the process of reformatting the Union State of Belarus and Russia at the moment?

- The document on the formation of the Union State was signed back in 1999, and the process is still going on with mixed success. A union program has been signed and there is an attempt to implement it. Integration of the states in the financial, economic, energy, and logistical aspects accelerated after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine because Belarusian products now go through Russian ports. Nevertheless, the full implementation of the document signed in 1999 is, in my opinion, unrealistic, because it provides for a single parliament, a single government, a single currency, and so on. Nothing is happening in that direction. The integration process is going on, but as if apart from these points specified in the document.

- Last week, President Lukashenko said that a dialogue between Belarus and NATO was admissible. We would like to hear what this dialogue is supposed to be about.

- There is no dialogue today between Belarus and NATO because there is nothing to talk about, no agenda. And most likely, there will not be any.

- Did the past year bring something new to the relations between Belarus and Azerbaijan?

- I do not think that 2022 has changed the relations between Belarus and Azerbaijan in any way. They remain traditionally warm, and the friendly relations between Presidents Aliyev and Lukashenko are preserved. The volume of trade also remains at the same level. So everything remains quite even and stable.

Caliber.Az