Russian pundit: Greater Armenia dreams will never come true
Andrey Petrov hosted by Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  19 January 2023 - 11:17

Relations between Yerevan and Moscow are strained day by day. Armenia's statements which were unprecedented not so long ago are becoming commonplace. Yerevan's anti-Russian rhetoric, claims, and accusations are taking hold on a larger front in Russian-Armenian relations. Moscow's responses, however, are also getting tougher.

What is happening to the still "allies and partners"? At what point do relations between Russia and Armenia risk reaching? Russian political analyst Andrey Petrov, deputy director general of the information agency Vestnik Kavkaza, has shared his opinion with Caliber.Az.

- How can you characterize the recent pretentious statements of Yerevan to Moscow, in particular, statements about the "Russian threat to Armenia" and, in fact, about the exclusion from participation in the CSTO?

- The Armenian prime minister's recent statements that Russia might pose a military threat to Armenia rather than ensure its security are a natural continuation of Nikol Pashinyan's policy of disassociation from Russia and any rapprochement with the West, including in the military sphere.

In my view, back in the spring of 2018, when Pashinyan first came to power, such a task had already been set. In the first years, though, it was not so actively implemented, but after the end of the Karabakh war and Armenia's capitulation, when Russia did not support it in the war against Azerbaijan, Pashinyan's anti-Russian agenda only strengthened its motivation and additional arguments (false, of course) appeared for a disguised step-by-step movement to break relations with Moscow. To understand the essence, it is worth asking why Nikol Pashinyan wants to go to the West and distance himself as much as possible from Russia. The answer is that Pashinyan has nothing in common with Russia.

The basis of Armenia's foreign policy ties now is relations with Armenian diasporas around the world. Previously, Armenian nationalists like Kocharyan and Sargsyan had the strongest ties with Russia and the Armenian diaspora in Moscow and were well-known in the Soviet Union, relations with the US and France were secondary. Pashinyan and his team have no ties with the Armenian diaspora in Russia. That is, if Russia leaves Armenia tomorrow, Pashinyan and his people will not lose anything because they receive all the support from the West - from the Armenian diaspora in France and the US.

Since September last year, Armenia has entered an active phase of the struggle against Russian-Armenian relations. This is why I think clashes with Azerbaijan on the border were then organised - their main outcome was supposed to be an opportunity for Armenia to call on CSTO troops for help and, if they refused, to use this to sharply criticise the military bloc for "inaction" and claim that Armenia had nothing to do in the CSTO at all.

- Nevertheless, anti-Russian rhetoric in Armenia has now reached an unprecedented peak.

- Such rhetoric is now constantly heard from Yerevan, especially after the eco-activists' action on the Lachin road began and Azerbaijan managed to enforce the sixth point of the Trilateral Statement of November 10 - this road finally stopped carrying weapons to Khankendi and exporting the illegally mined Azerbaijani natural resources extracted by Ruben Vardanyan. Armenia, therefore, has no more incentives and motives to somehow hide its anti-Russian sentiments - now it is essentially believed there that if Moscow does not serve Armenian interests, Yerevan has the right to harshly criticize Russia and already openly declare that it needs to move away from it to the West.

At the same time, we see that the regime of Nikol Pashinyan has no thought-out, logical programme for leaving "the Russian ship", which, by the way, the Americans and the French demand from the Armenians. It is what Yerevan wants too, but Pashinyan and his team cannot think of how to do it with minimal losses for themselves. Such absurd statements are made in order to withdraw Russian troops and replace them with French or American, NATO forces in general. The Armenian Prime Minister himself creates a whole series of fake statements and false pictures of behind-the-scenes games between Azerbaijan and Russia in the region.

I should note that realizing that in reality such a turn of events, the emergence of external forces will only increase tension in the region, Russia seeks peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while forces in France and the US, which are now sponsoring Pashinyan, are only interested in the idea of revenge - although it will certainly be worse for Armenia first of all. All these steps are not at all thought through and analysed by Pashinyan's team, which is why they continue to make absolutely absurd statements, which cause serious indignation in Russia.

- What do you think will be Moscow's further reaction to the antics of the Armenian authorities, particularly regarding the possibility of the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base from Armenia?

- In my view, the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian base from Armenia is not yet possible, and Moscow will try its best to maintain its military presence in the country. Russia is really not just indignant but rather angered by the way Pashinyan's regime is behaving quite openly and aggressively towards Moscow. But I would like to note that Russia is not going to part with Armenia. On the contrary, it will try to do everything for the country to remain under Russian influence because a lot has been done for Armenia over the last thirty years. Just because a journalist, Nikol Pashinyan, who accidentally came to power there and is doing everything he is told to do for Western money, Russia does not intend to break off ties with Armenia. It will rather try to part with Pashinyan himself. Though it is not quite clear who can replace him now. Certainly not the representatives of the former government, Sargsyan, and Kocharyan, because the Armenian people overthrew them and will do everything to prevent their return.

This is why I think some kind of closed-door tough political dialogue is now taking place between Moscow and Yerevan, although it is not yet clear what it may lead to - because the regime of Nikol Pashinyan has no clear plan on how to ensure this break with Russia as painlessly and gently as possible. Every day in Yerevan they literally improvise. They wake up in the morning and devise ways to get out of the trap into which they drove themselves yesterday. That is why the statements from Yerevan are sometimes so chaotic and completely unconnected. In such a mess it is difficult to know what will happen next. Moreover, I believe that if we somehow manage to put pressure on Pashinyan now, he may even surrender and start giving in to those demands voiced by Russia. Or maybe he will not. But let's hope that Moscow will find the right levers of pressure so that Yerevan will finally come to its senses and return to the settlement of the situation in the region, in which Russia is certainly interested, unlike Pashinyan's Western sponsors.

- How do you see Armenia's future role in international geopolitics, what awaits it?

- In my opinion, as long as such uncaring people remain in power in Armenia, the country will remain no more than a tool in the geopolitical struggle of larger states. If the Armenian authorities do not give up their desperate plans to fight against their large neighbours Azerbaijan and Türkiye and continue to agree to any deals with anyone who offers assistance in this fight, Armenia will not have a normal, human future. Simply because in this case, it will remain a hostage of the current fortuitous state of affairs in global and regional geopolitics. If Armenia finds the strength to come to its senses, if some more constructive, reasonable forces come to replace Pashinyan, from whom I no longer expect anything, and Armenia begins to integrate into the existing structure of healthy political, economic and cultural relations of the South Caucasus, then it will have a chance to become a normal country in which the population will live and develop. But we don't see it yet. However, so far we do not see this. So far, the Armenian authorities continue aimlessly dreaming of a "Greater Armenia", which will never come true.

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