Four factors leading to loss of Armenia's sovereignty
    The process has begun

    ANALYTICS  25 January 2023 - 15:54

    Vadim Mansurov

    The EU mission to Armenia promises to be a determining factor among those that lead the country to the loss of sovereignty and disintegration. While the other three factors have already had a disastrous impact on the development of the Republic of Armenia, it was, as they say, not enough. It’s like in chemistry: you only have to add a catalyst to blow up a mixture. The role that the “French paratrooper” should play in the new European mission, with its appearance and the disintegration of Armenia can be considered inevitable. However, let’s analyze this “formula of four” one by one, how it works and why.

    The explosive mixture was accumulating in Armenia in stages, and every basic factor somehow added to the loss of its sovereignty.

    So, factor one: the 102nd Russian military base. It has been stationed in Gyumri since 1995 and largely determines Armenia’s dependence on Moscow. When you have armed men living in your house from a nearby village, you can, therefore, only be considered a part owner of your house.

    Factor two: Pashinyan, as a reason for undermining Armenian sovereignty. He came to power on a wave of American intelligence support, flooded Armenia with American NGOs, allowed Western espionage networks to infiltrate and became the backbone of the US’s covert presence in the region. For the time being, the two forces, the US and Russia, somehow get along in Armenia. The ensuing disagreements were narrowly regulated by Pashinyan himself, winking alternately at the two suzerains and alternately making faithful declarations, and sometimes giving up some of the country’s resources.

    Factor three: Iranian influence. “Two scoundrels against the young man” - this is one way to explain the nature of the attraction of the interests between Tehran and Yerevan, united against their main enemy - Azerbaijan. However, it is not only the pheromones that bring Armenians and Iranians together, which are beyond logic; the reasons for the antipathy towards Turks go far back into history, and sometimes the context of events is quite shocking. The influence of Iran on Armenia, of course, cannot be discounted, and with the arrival of “velvet” rulers in Yerevan, Russian, Iranian and American interests have become inexplicable.

    But the explosive cocktail required a fourth component.

    Factor four: the EU mission is essentially a “French landing force”. The new force arriving in Armenia threatens to turn the delicate balance inside out, because the toxic mixture that will finally erode Armenian sovereignty is almost ready. First of all, France, which lobbied for sending a large-scale EU mission, pursues somewhat different goals unlike the three previous players, who have long been in the region and are determined to work with Armenia “in the long term”. Paris intends to enjoy “fresh bites” here and now, using Yerevan exclusively as an instrument for its penetration into the region. And the US, Russia, and Iran are all undesirable competitors for France that deserve only one thing - elimination. Paris does not at all object against tearing Armenia apart by its actions, having spoiled the inevitable conflict of all parties involved in the country itself - the main thing is to settle down, and what happens later, well, we will see.

    In this sense, Pashinyan clearly outdid many and exposed himself with all his giblets, having managed to sell himself to Western patrons twice: to the US in 2018 and France in 2022. As world practice shows, however, such schemes do not go well, and the scaffold often awaits such double agents.

    The most obvious thing is that only one, uninvolved, factor could outweigh all of these and save the Armenian state. It is real and not subject to the cynical logic of political games and short-term interests. It is a healthy desire for peace and prosperity. But first, some prerequisites: Armenia’s renouncing from territorial claims and ideas of a “miatsum” in relation to the Azerbaijani state, the signing of the peace treaty, the delimitation and demarcation of borders and unlocking of communications. The main thing is to establish full-fledged and good-neighbourly relations with Baku and Ankara without any questions or problems. It would seem that it is easier to be kind and honest, to drown out pathological pretension and chauvinism, to start living in a new way. But, alas, Armenia is more ready to die, leading itself to complete self-disintegration, to go to the bottom with the stone of the unsatisfied ambitions of Armenians and the cherished “miatsum” ideology rather than to move towards peace with its neighbours. Well, so be it.


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