Iran gears up to develop nuclear weapon components
And it will take its toll

ANALYTICS  21 February 2023 - 17:45

Reports from the region signal a growing possibility of escalation between Iran and Israel. Bloomberg reported on the breaking news: Iran is close to developing nuclear weapon components. The agency cites two senior diplomats. They say Iran has already enriched uranium to 84 per cent - almost to the level needed to build a nuclear weapon. International monitors detected uranium enriched to that level in Iran last week. The level previously reported was 60 per cent.

Uranium enriched to 2-5% per cent is used in nuclear power plants around the world. Uranium enriched to 20 per cent is used in research and experimental reactors. Uranium enriched above 20 per cent is called highly enriched or weapons-grade uranium. A level of about 90 per cent is considered sufficient for developing nuclear weapons. The 84 per cent figure represents a critical step towards the production of nuclear weapon components. It is possible that Iran will produce it soon. It is believed that it will take about a year to integrate the nuclear components with the missile system. Thus, it is very likely that Iran could become a nuclear power within a year.

The current global environment contributes in no small way to this. The great powers deal differently with those who have nuclear weapons and those who do not. True, sanctions are the flip side of the coin, which ruin the economies of some countries that have developed nuclear weapons. And besides, having nuclear weapons does not give 100 per cent protection from being bombed by conventional weapons. Still, it makes them less likely. Iran seems intent on becoming a nuclear power.

However, there is a group of countries extremely disinterested in allowing this to happen. In Israel, there is a consensus among all leading politicians that nuclear weapons cannot be allowed to be developed in Iran. The recent Israeli drone bombing of Isfahan indicates the seriousness of the intentions of that country's top brass. Iran's weak response could be interpreted as an indication that Israel could continue to bomb Iranian military facilities, defence plants, and factories related to its nuclear program on a regular basis.

However, attacking the most important facility - the underground uranium enrichment plant hidden under Mount Fordow - is the most technically difficult task, and it is not certain that Israel has the necessary weapons to do so. However, the US, which is also unhappy with Iran's attempts to develop nuclear weapons, and has indicated that "all options are on the table", could supply Israel with some means to attack Iran's nuclear programme more forcefully, or could even take part in some attacks itself. In addition, Israel is interested in eliminating Iranian facilities that produce ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The reported 84 per cent enrichment of uranium makes Israeli raids on Iran much more likely, almost inevitable.

The second report is noteworthy in this regard. The Jerusalem Post writes about a mysterious Iranian attack on the commercial ship Campo Square. An "aerial object" struck the ship as it was transiting the Indian Ocean, some 300 nautical miles off the coast of India and Oman. Details of the incident became known only a week later, on February 17. Moreover, the attack followed the November 15 attack on the Pacific vessel Zircon, which was carried out by an Iranian drone, Shahed-136, launched from Chabahar. On the most recent attack, Al-Monitor reported that "at least one Iranian drone targeted an Israeli-affiliated commercial tanker in the Arabian Sea on February 10, causing minor damage and this was confirmed Friday by a US military official familiar with the incident."

Iran has repeatedly attacked merchant ships, including those associated with Israel, in the said region in the past. Such attacks pose some threat to Israel as 90 per cent of Israeli trade is done by sea.

However, Israeli political-military analyst Seth Frantzman wonders why Iran, having carried out an attack (possibly in response to the Israeli bombing of Isfahan), then did not even mention it? Regional media close to Iran remain silent about what happened. According to Frantzman, such actions by Iran could be attacks designed to test drones targeting commercial and military vessels. In this way, Iran may be preparing for massive drone strikes. These actions could be training exercises for further escalation of attacks. In the future, such drone strikes could take place over large areas of water, especially in strategic waterways such as the Suez Canal, the Straits of Hormuz, and the Bab el Mandeb.

Thus, recent reports coming out of the region can be seen as an indication of future escalation. Israel is clearly preparing for more serious strikes against the Iranian military industry and nuclear programme. Reports of uranium enriched to 84 per cent make Israeli bombings almost inevitable. Iran, for its part, is testing possible retaliation options.

Caliber.Az