Armenia on threshold of historic solution
The Inexorable Peace

ANALYTICS  24 May 2023 - 19:16

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, known for his dubious mastery of casuistry, has been slowly but surely finding his way to specifics in recent weeks. At a press conference on May 22, he said that the 86,600 square kilometres previously recognized by him as the territory of Azerbaijan, includes Karabakh.

Thus, compared to the point of view of 2019, the current position of the Armenian leader has turned 180 degrees. After all, how did the Karabakh policy of the "velvet" prime minister and his cabinet begin? The "new war, new territories" doctrine, the drunken dances in Shusha and the statement "Karabakh is Armenia, period."

We must pay tribute to Pashinyan's stubbornness: even the defeat of the Armenian army in the fall of 2020 did not immediately sober him up. For almost three years, the Prime Minister has been wiggling and twisting like a frying pan, making ambiguous statements, retreating from his words, while making efforts to reanimate the Armenian armed forces by purchasing weapons abroad and increasing the military budget, and arranging provocations on the conditional border to raise the morale of the nation.

The calculation was both on the help of the traditional patrons and on the fact that after the military victory Azerbaijan would rest on its laurels and lose its vigilance.

In other words, it would not consolidate its political triumph. However, Yerevan's calculations did not materialize. More precisely, the first factor - patronage - worked to the full: the benefactors got involved, as far as the new conditions allowed them, of course.

But as a result of Azerbaijan's decisive, proactive and consistent policy to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Pashinyan eventually had to say what President Ilham Aliyev demanded of him. Namely: "Karabakh is Azerbaijan."

Using the legitimate support of international law, building strategic relations with world and regional powers and using the full power of its armed forces, Azerbaijan forced Pashinyan to accept the new geopolitical reality.

Even Pashinyan's current confession, however important it may be, is still only words. In the post-war three years, he often said one thing and did another. However, we should recognize that the fact of the last public confession, which was clarified with the addition of Karabakh, is more than a significant fact.

Why else would not he voice it earlier? We should not forget that the Prime Minister is the first person in Armenia, and what he says, one way or another, is projected on the country itself, as well as on the international community, as a signal to action. Failure to do so will have a negative impact on the international image of the state, which should not be discounted.

Moreover, the more serious things he says, the harder it is to back down from them. Let us not forget that the previous rushes from peace to war and other provocations of the Prime Minister have always been met with a qualitatively new change on the ground in favour of Azerbaijan. Let us recall the establishment of the checkpoint "Lachin" after another escalation by the Armenian side on the conditional border.

Pashinyan, for all his strangeness, is not stupid at all and certainly understands the seriousness of the situation as well as we do. In other words, certain progress in the statements of the Armenian prime minister generally reflects the general progress in the negotiation process. Now the Armenian leader needs to take practical steps to confirm his words.

However, Pashinyan's reservation is troubling. Underlining that 86,600 square kilometres of Azerbaijani territory include Karabakh, he specified: "But it must be noted that we say that the issue of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and their rights and security must be discussed in the Baku – Stepanakert format (Khankendi - Ed.)".

He further warned that the Armenian side considers important the creation of international guarantees for these negotiations. Apparently, finally heeding the call of the Azerbaijani leader, the Armenian premier said not only "A" but "B" as well. However, being frightened of his own audacity, he hastened to pour a spoonful of tar and added a counter "C". In general, he is trying to push through a special international agenda for the dialogue between Baku and the Armenian community of Karabakh.

The narrative that the Karabakh issue is not a territorial one, but a humanitarian one, has been proclaimed by the Armenian side in one way or another for decades.

Even the most superficial check of the Armenian position for the practical use of this thesis reveals a cynical and aggressive policy of territorial claims and categorical non-recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

And in general, before declaring that Karabakh is not a matter of territorial claims, shouldn't we first change the constitution of the Republic of Armenia, which implies (only for Armenians, of course) that Karabakh is a part of Armenia? By the way, if Karabakh is part of Armenia, then what is the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic"?

Baku's position is unambiguous: the reintegration of Karabakh Armenians is an internal affair of Azerbaijan and cannot be the object of international intervention. And this case will be brought to an end.

After the 44-day war, there were and probably still are people who would like to do everything at once and do not notice the visible results of the actions of the Azerbaijani leadership. Moreover, any aggravation (and sometimes stagnation) of the situation plunges them into pessimism and despondency, which they convey to others.

As we have argued in more than one publication, the strategic vision excludes impulsive actions. Those thoughts that come to someone's mind in response to the actions of the enemy are exactly what the enemy is counting on. Azerbaijan's leadership, fortunately, acts differently. The whole dynamics of the post-conflict settlement embodies Aliyev's title thesis: "We know what to do, how to do it, and when to do it.

Azerbaijan has become one of the important players shaping the reality in the South Caucasus region. Brotherly Turkey, after decades of unfair absence, has also finally returned to the region. The alliance between Baku and Ankara has become a factor that no one in the world can ignore.

Pashinyan recognizes this reality but makes timid attempts to find a worthy place for his country in it. And to a large extent, this policy meets resistance from a large part of Armenian society, which has been nurtured by Turkophobic ideas. And these ideas are actively being fed from outside. 

It is time for the Armenian people to realize that foreign powers feeding on revanchism are using them as firewood to kindle fires in the South Caucasus.

I wonder if the masses in Armenia realize that all this separatist fiddling for all thirty years of occupation was a harbinger of a great military and mental catastrophe in 2020.

Do they realize that if anything had happened with the international recognition of the separatist entity, it would have happened in those thirty years when representatives of the Minsk Group smartly lectured Azerbaijan? Do they realize that by annexing Karabakh they fell into a trap? Do they realize that it is Azerbaijan that is offering them freedom from the bloody clutches of this mousetrap?

In any case, Pashinian is a landmark figure in Armenian history. There is reason to believe that his wags and tricks are just a forced measure in the face of the ideas of cultural superiority that still prevail in the minds of a large part of Armenian society and do not allow us to say goodbye to "miatsum" (unification) as a people- and state-forming factor.

Pashinian's struggle with the Armenian Church, for example, is such a reason. After all, it is no secret that the church is both the ideological inspirer and the logistical and financial hub of the entire expansionist Armenian project.

Admittedly, throwing down the gauntlet to the Catholicosate takes a fair amount of courage. Challenging the Catholicos is a step toward eradicating the ideas of "Greater Armenia," "miatsum" and "tsekhakron" that are destructive to the region and the Armenians themselves, a healthy impulse toward creating a new Armenian identity, free of the chimeras of national exclusivity and focused on peace and cooperation with its neighbours.

We wish Nikol Pashinyan to complete his quest for peace. If he fails to live up to the expectations placed on him, it cannot be helped - there will be a peaceful South Caucasus anyway but without Armenia.

Caliber.Az