"Armenia has no impact on the peace deal content but delaying its signing"
Caliber.Az talks to Stanislav Tkachenko
INTERVIEWS 06 June 2023 - 15:25
Vadim Mansurov Caliber.Az |
At first sight, the intensification of the negotiation process between Baku and Yerevan, which was attended by almost all international mediators - Moscow, Washington, Brussels, seems like good news - there is more chance that it will force Armenia to finally take real steps for signing a peace agreement, will warn against empty accusations towards Azerbaijan. However, it is not as simple as that - the unspoken rivalry between the centres of power for moderating the negotiations is, of course, dictated by each of their own interests. Therefore, a "swan, pike, and crawfish" situation emerges, with each dragging the negotiations in its own direction, reinforcing the overall imbalance in the process.
But how does the Kremlin feel about such active moderation by the West? Especially now, when Yerevan itself has been very active in blocking Russian participation. Take, for example, the recent statement of Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan claiming that not Russian but Armenian militaries will exercise control over the security of the Zangazur corridor. That is, Yerevan openly admits that it is not satisfied with the provisions of the Trilateral Statement of 2020. Meanwhile, it is Moscow that actively supports the launch of the Zangazur corridor, which can help it to ease the sanctions blockade by increasing the import-export of goods.
According to Stanislav Tkachenko, a Russian political scientist, doctor of economics, and professor at St. Petersburg State University, any expert on negotiations knows that "their most dangerous part, where many seemingly successful agreements fail, is the final stage".
Tkachenko told Caliber.Az that this stage comes when the parties seemingly are ready to reach an agreement. It is at this moment that the negotiating parties are trying to solve a secondary issue at the initial stage of discussion – how to convince their leaders, their parliament, or their people of the benefits of future agreements, how to make the desired agreement help solve additional tasks facing the state, its domestic or foreign policy. And such a situation, according to the political scientist, fully corresponds to the current stage of negotiations on a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia lasting for many months. And such a situation, in the opinion of the political analyst, is fully consistent with the current stage of the months-long negotiations on a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"Azerbaijan's extrinsic goals at this stage are moderate and realistic. Baku seeks to reaffirm its multi-vector international strategy, so it engages all external actors with influence on the security sphere in the South Caucasus - Russia, the US, and the European Union - as mediators. These states should clearly and unambiguously support the future peace agreement, thereby increasing its international legal weight. Of course, Russia's relations with the EU and the USA are hostile, close to freezing. But Moscow, Brussels, and Washington are generally happy about a future peace in the South Caucasus, so they are actively seeking to bring it closer," the expert believes.
But, according to Tkachenko, similar goals for Armenia, external to the text of the future peace agreement, such as the issues of transit, etc., are more complex and even contradictory: Yerevan is generally ready to recognize the state borders and Karabakh's belonging to Azerbaijan. It is also ready for the transport communication between Baku and Nakhchivan to pass through the Zangazur corridor and be operated freely in accordance with the rules of international carriage of goods and passengers. "But the immediate recognition of these issues, almost resolved at the negotiating table, would entail severe political consequences for the leaders of present-day Armenia.
And many of those politicians in Yerevan who are now empowered to negotiate and make final decisions could find themselves on the margins of their country's political system. Hence the attempts by Armenian government representatives to increase the number of foreign countries involved in the negotiations, including an active but entirely futile effort to make India a mediator. They are delaying the signing of the agreement, but have no effect on its content," Tkachenko said.
However, Russia, he said, is more interested in peace in the South Caucasus than any other extra-regional state or association of states.
"Moscow is now an ally of Armenia, is linked by large-scale economic ties with Azerbaijan, and is making active efforts to normalise relations with Georgia. In this context, the question of Russia's interest in opening the Zangazur corridor for cargo transit between the two parts of Azerbaijan, as well as for international cargo is obvious, as these steps will help start the process of restoration of economic ties in the South Caucasus and increase its transit potential. And any delays on this way, including the protection of the corridor already at the first stage exclusively by the Armenian military, without the involvement of Russian peacekeepers, will require additional consultations between Moscow and Yerevan," our interlocutor says.
In Russia, according to Tkachenko, there is no unified position on the current stage of negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
"In Moscow, they know that only an agreement that the two states will voluntarily sign, seeing in it the best way out of a conflict that has lasted for more than three decades, will lay the foundation for long-term peace. It is also important that this agreement is accepted by the Armenian people, who realise that peace in the region is the main condition for the stable development of their state. This is not an easy goal, and only politicians who put their ratings above the interests of the majority of the population can hinder its attainment. Moscow is trying its best to persuade Yerevan to act constructively, but so far it is not succeeding very well," the Russian political analyst summed up.
Caliber.Az
1
|
Iran re-evaluating its ties with Azerbaijan, Armenia Baku - more important, honest partner than Yerevan
25 April 2024 - 12:00
|
2
|
"Peoples of South Caucasus should resolve their differences independently" Foreign analysts on Caliber.Az
24 April 2024 - 17:40
|
3
|
Mark Rutte seeks Türkiye's backing for new job A new pair of hands
24 April 2024 - 16:55
|
4
|
Bilateral relations, regional dynamics, & peacekeepers’ withdrawal Key takeaways from President Aliyev's Moscow visit
24 April 2024 - 14:07
|
5
|
Air France plane safely evacuated at Heydar Aliyev Int’l Airport
24 April 2024 - 19:08
|
US National Security Advisor: Defence industry “still underestimating” global need for munitions
27 April 2024 - 03:05
China passes tariff law as tensions with trading partners simmer
27 April 2024 - 01:03
Azerbaijani, German presidents hold expanded meeting
26 April 2024 - 23:50
Azerbaijani President, German Chancellor hold joint press conference
26 April 2024 - 23:45
Mount Fuji view to be blocked as tourists overcrowd popular photo spot
26 April 2024 - 23:00
Türkiye bases its relations with African countries on win-win principle: Parliament speaker
26 April 2024 - 20:53
ICJ concludes public hearings on 'Azerbaijan v. Armenia' case, proceeds to evidence verification
26 April 2024 - 20:45
Turkic parliament committee chairmen tour Khankendi & Shusha in Azerbaijan
26 April 2024 - 20:39
ByteDance prefers TikTok shutdown in US over sale
26 April 2024 - 20:39
Health Ministry: Over 50 Palestinians killed in Gaza as Israeli onslaught continues
26 April 2024 - 20:26
Azerbaijani president meets German FM in Berlin, discusses COP29 & peace agenda
26 April 2024 - 20:22
Russia, Ukraine hand over bodies of dead soldiers
26 April 2024 - 20:11
Political analyst: Armenian leadership hostile towards Russia
26 April 2024 - 19:56
Israeli civilian fatally injured in anti-tank missile strike near Lebanon border
VIDEO26 April 2024 - 19:41
Turkish court sentences Syrian woman to life in prison for bombing in Istanbul in 2022
26 April 2024 - 19:26
Azerbaijani, Kazakh military specialists convene for bilateral co-op discussions
26 April 2024 - 19:16
Armenia, Italy agree on military-technical cooperation
26 April 2024 - 19:11
Kazakhstan hosting meeting of defence ministers of SCO member states
26 April 2024 - 18:56
Azerbaijan, Armenia install 28 markers as border clarification works reach 35% completion
26 April 2024 - 18:50
UK’s ministry: Russian forces accelerating advance west of Ukraine’s Avdiivka
26 April 2024 - 18:41
Kazakh military delegation explores Azerbaijan's defense capabilities during visit
26 April 2024 - 18:35
France, Germany push on with 2040 joint tank project
26 April 2024 - 18:26
Political analyst: Demarcation of border with Azerbaijan meets Armenia’s vital interests
26 April 2024 - 18:11
Palestinian Resistance factions fighting against Israeli forces across besieged Gaza Strip
26 April 2024 - 17:56
US Central Command conducts humanitarian airdrops into Gaza
26 April 2024 - 17:41
Azerbaijan unveils programme of sixth World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue in Baku
26 April 2024 - 17:26
Azerbaijan's energy offer signals path to normalization with Armenia
Amid geopolitical shifts26 April 2024 - 17:24
Spain to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine
26 April 2024 - 17:11
Russia's oil revenues grow despite Western sanctions
Bill of the war26 April 2024 - 17:05
US, China spar over bilateral, global issues
26 April 2024 - 16:56
Kyrgyzstan's school-building gesture in Karabakh signals deeper ties with Azerbaijan
26 April 2024 - 16:41
Armenian PM vows to tackle existential challenges
We will address this issue26 April 2024 - 16:30
Azerbaijani police find explosive devices, ammunition in Khojavend
PHOTO26 April 2024 - 16:28
IAEA: Situation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains unpredictable
26 April 2024 - 16:13
US Mojave proves its unmatched versatility in unprecedented live-fire demo
26 April 2024 - 15:58
From energy cooperation to investment expansion
Baku, Budapest forge stronger business ties26 April 2024 - 15:45
Russian operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers most immediate prospects for significant advances
ISW analysts’ opinion26 April 2024 - 15:43
Turkish president to meet with US counterpart at White House in May
26 April 2024 - 15:28
Sweden to move ahead with sending troops to Latvia as part of NATO forces
26 April 2024 - 15:13
Armenian, Serbian FMs discuss regional issues
26 April 2024 - 14:58