What does US seek in Middle East as it backs Israel and deters Iran?
Shereshevskiy has the answer

ANALYTICS  18 October 2023 - 14:38

After Hamas attacks on the territory of Israel, the country's leadership is striking Gaza, which is controlled by the organisation, and preparing for a full-scale land operation. The goal should probably be the destruction of Hamas. Israel has already promised to destroy all those involved in the raid on its territory. Gaza residents (about 1 million people) have been ordered to move to the southern part of the Strip, which the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) has not yet shelled. However, in the future, the IDF will surely try to enter southern Gaza as well.

Israel's response will be very large-scale, clearly not the same as in the case of previous clashes with Hamas. Today, the latest attacks on Israel are compared to 9/11 in terms of their consequences, but Israeli publicists and politicians themselves sometimes reject this comparison, believing that the shock experienced by Israeli society is much greater. Hence the radical plans for the total liquidation of Hamas.

At the same time, the situation on Israel's northern (Lebanese) border is aggravating. There are skirmishes between the IDF and Hezbollah. The pro-Iranian group "Hezbollah" is both a political party and an armed unit that surpasses the Lebanese army in its capabilities. With a capability of 100,000 to 200,000 missiles, including high-precision rockets, and far stronger ground forces than Hamas, Hezbollah threatens Israel with all-out war if it launches a ground operation in Gaza.

"Hezbollah" is a difficult opponent. Its tactics are based on the use of dense rains of rockets designed to flood Israel for months and paralyse its economy. If the Israeli army enters Lebanon to destroy the enemy's rocket installations and bases, 20-30 thousand fighters trained in guerrilla and sabotage operations are waiting for it there, with well-established logistics - a system of underground fortifications and bunkers. Moreover, the terrain of southern Lebanon is extremely convenient for the type of operations Hezbollah practices. Some observers consider it one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East. It is Iran's fist it is shaking to Israel.

Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad regime in Syria, the Iraqi militias and related parties that control that country's government, the Fatimiyoun Brigade made up of Afghan Hazaras, and the Houthi rebels who control a quarter of Yemen are all elements of the network of armed and political groups created by Iran's theocracy for expansion in the Middle East. The groups are distinct from one another. Almost all of them are Shiite and this points to the limitations of Iran, whose sphere of influence is largely confined to Shiite regions, but Hamas and Islamic Jihad are made up of Sunni Palestinian Arabs. Some organisations are created by Iran and are fully subordinate to it, like Fatimiyoun, while others have some autonomy and are more like allies, like the Houthis. But all of them are in one way or another linked to Tehran, which finances and arms them and provides them with comprehensive political support. The Iranians have already warned Israel that ground operations in Gaza may entail Iran's intervention. Hamas is part of their system of influence. But Tehran usually avoids direct involvement in conflicts, it engages its proxies. The long-range and cruise missiles possessed by the Houthis, and possibly Iraqi Shiite militias, could also attack Israel.

Meanwhile, the US has sent two carrier strike groups to Israel's shores. This huge force is aimed at defending Israel, a US ally. Biden warned Iran and its allies not to interfere while Israel is conducting operations in Gaza.

The fact is that the main goal of the US today is to limit the war within Gaza. The US is showing support for Israel, but they fear unpredictability. They have sent aircraft carriers to Israel's shores to threaten Iran and Hezbollah, to prevent their large-scale intervention in the conflict, and to confine the war to Gaza because they perceive a major Middle East war as a threat. Why?

First, a major war in the Middle East hits American plans to normalise Israel's relations with Saudi Arabia and to forge an anti-Iranian bloc. Since the Israel-Gaza conflict began, the Saudis have already issued a statement rather tepid towards Israel. As long as the Arab-Israeli war is going on, this state, which claims leadership in the Arab world, will not go for establishing diplomatic and other close relations with Israel.

Secondly, Washington is well aware that Arab officials and regimes are one thing, but societies in Arab countries are another, and that events in Gaza can affect Arab public opinion. And it is hard for Arab governments to ignore it after the Arab Spring. The larger the new Arab-Israeli war, the more unrest and crises there will be in the Arab world. One thing is the war in Gaza, quite another is a possible war between Israel and the Arabs on 3-5 fronts simultaneously, with Lebanon (Hezbollah almost completely controls this country), Assad in Syria, etc. The US does not need a new "Arab Spring", which can grow out of pro-Palestinian sentiments and economic problems within the Arab states, and then once again wash away many state systems in the Middle East, which can have unpredictable consequences.

Thirdly, the presence of 500 US citizens in the Gaza Strip. Ahead of the elections, Biden does not want anything to happen to these people. That is why Congress has quietly started discussing what to do with all this and what is the American plan for Gaza.

However, the main problem from the American point of view is the threat of a global economic recession if these events turn into a major war between Iran and Israel.

Bloomberg published economic forecasts for three possible war scenarios. In the first case, the war is limited to the Gaza Strip, in the second case it spreads to some extent to the allies of Hamas and Iran - Assad and Hezbollah are drawn into the war with Israel. Both scenarios threaten rising oil prices and some slowdown in global economic growth, as well as higher prices for basic commodities, but this change would not be fatal.

However, as the publication notes, there is also a third scenario arguing that a sharper escalation of the conflict could bring Israel into direct confrontation with Iran. In this case, as Bloomberg Economics points out, oil prices could quickly rise to $150 per barrel and global growth could fall to 1.7 per cent. For the world's economies, this would mean a recession that would reduce global output by about $1 trillion. This is a huge loss for the largest banks and investors. In addition, the economic downturn will inevitably affect the US, jeopardising Biden's ability to win the next election.

Therefore, the American goals today are to dampen the ardour of the players, to work closely with Israel, keeping its finger on the pulse, and at the same time to thwart a large-scale war between Israel and Iran, threatening the latter with intervention.

Caliber.Az