Is the Middle East heading for a wider war?
Analysis by Mikhail Shereshevskiy

ANALYTICS  03 January 2024 - 13:11

The hostilities that broke out after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 are growing. The war is no longer just a confrontation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It is Iran's war against the US-Israeli coalition for spheres of influence in the Middle East. It is being waged on five fronts.

Currently, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been able to advance in several areas of the Gaza Strip. In the north of the Strip, the Israelis have taken many strategically important positions, while in the south they continue their slow but steady advance. Hamas militants are waging guerrilla warfare, shelling Israeli armored vehicles, logistics convoys, and then withdrawing into underground tunnels. But even though they managed to inflict significant losses on the IDF, the fire-shaft tactics Israel uses are more or less effective in such a small area.

Lasting air and artillery strikes are turning Gaza - the most densely populated area on the planet, home to some 2.3 million Palestinians - into stone crumbs. Tunnels in the underground city built by Hamas are being blown up or flooded with seawater.

During the October 7 raids and occupation of 22 Israeli population centers, which lasted about three days, Hamas militants, according to Israeli sources, killed about 300 IDF soldiers and about 1,000 civilians, more than 200 civilians were taken to Gaza as hostages. After this action, Israel declared its intention to completely destroy the Hamas military organisation. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 20,000 people have already been killed in the Strip. According to Israeli data, 8 thousand Hamas militants have been killed, the IDF losses amount to more than 100 killed since the beginning of the offensive on Gaza.

The high civilian casualties are related to the huge population density in Gaza, the bombing of some areas of the Strip and Egypt's reluctance to accept refugees.

The possibility of a new "Arab Spring"

Despite the fact that the US negotiated about it with Cairo, the Egyptians refused to accept refugees from Gaza. There are three reasons for refusal.

First, Egypt is experiencing a severe economic crisis and its authorities fear a new "Arab Spring". Under such conditions, accepting two million people would be a big economic, social and political problem for the country, risking to cause destabilization.

Secondly, the Egyptian authorities fear that the population of the country will perceive the reception of refugees as support for Israel, especially against the backdrop of mass discontent in Egypt caused by Israel's actions and against the background of statements by some Israeli politicians (Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel) that the Palestinians of Gaza should find a new home. The situation in Egypt and Jordan - the countries neighboring Israel and Palestine - is very unstable for this reason. 

Thirdly, the Egyptian army that rules the country is divided, and there are many among the military who do not like the idea of accepting Palestinian refugees. In the case of internal conflicts, the Egyptian army usually decides to avoid them, for it is important for the military to maintain the unity it needs to keep control over 110 million Egyptians. That is why the army has stated that for it to accept Palestinian refugees in Sinai is impossible, saying it is a red line.

Three timelines for the Gaza war

As Israeli analyst Jonathan Spyer notes, there are three timelines affecting each other in Gaza.

The first has to do with the pace of Israel's operation to destroy Hamas. At this pace of the offensive, the battle could continue for many more months.

On the other hand, there is increasing diplomatic pressure on Israel from the US and Europe.

The second timeline is diplomatic. The US is pushing for an early end to the war and its pressure will gradually increase. The Americans - Israel's main allies and the world's leading power - want to end the conflict as quickly as possible. At the beginning of the war, the US sent two aircraft carrier groups to Israel's shores carrying about 200 fighter jets and helicopters. They threatened to attack anyone who launched a war against Israel. However, as is always the case with Joe Biden's administration, the Americans are behaving sluggishly. "Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, allies of Hamas and Iran, have a long history of shelling Israel, albeit limited in scope, and the US has not intervened. Apart from that, the Americans have been unable to harmonize military aid to Israel because of conflicts in Congress.

On the other hand, the US is limiting the scope of Israeli strikes. Why? They fear a repeat of the “Arab Spring”, which could destabilize the generally Washington-loyal regimes in Egypt and Jordan. In addition, within the US itself, there is growing discontent among a part of the public - people of leftist or left-liberal views, as well as American Muslims, and this threatens Biden with the loss of part of the electorate in the elections in November 2024. Finally, each new day of the war carries the threat of it turning into a global conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, which supports Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and a number of other militias in the region; if the situation escalates into a full-scale regional war between Israel and the US on the one hand and Iran on the other, the price of oil, according to Bloomberg economists' forecasts, could reach $150 per barrel, which would cause a global economic recession, undermine the US economy and destroy Biden's (already small) chances for re-election. Therefore, the growing US diplomatic pressure is aimed at getting Israel to end the Gaza operation as soon as possible, content with creating a buffer zone in the northern part of the Strip.

The third timeline relates to the hostage crisis. Hamas is trying to bargain with Israel to trade some hostages for temporary ceasefires. By stalling for time in this way, Hamas and its sponsor, Iran, would like to prevent Israel from completing the operation, reaching a point where US pressure on Israel becomes intolerable and it will end the war without achieving its goal of destroying the Hamas military organization.

What does the Netanyahu government want to accomplish?

Israel understands this. It is in the interest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose popularity has plummeted since the Hamas action on October 7, to speed up the Gaza operation. If he fails to destroy Hamas, it could cost him the prime minister's chair and will be perceived as a failure by the public and the political and economic elite. Since Netanyahu is on trial for corruption charges, he could be made a scapegoat, including a prison sentence. That is why it is important for him to ensure the destruction of Hamas, because for him it is not only a political but also a personal issue.

Military operations on four fronts

The war is not limited to the Gaza Strip. The pro-Iranian forces in the region, numerous and well-armed Shiite militias, succeeded in achieving what they had long talked about - “unity of the resistance arenas.” Thus, Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian party and the most powerful Iranian ally that controls Lebanon, opened a second front in northern Israel, shelling its territory.

Israel responds by shelling southern Lebanon. About 100,000 Israelis in the north of the country have become refugees, and this is another headache for Netanyahu, as it also undermines his popularity. However, the United States is restraining Israel here too, not wanting it to launch a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. Therefore, despite threats to do the same with Lebanon as with Gaza, Israel has not yet launched a major operation in Lebanon and it is not certain that it will.

The third front is in neighboring Syria. The Israeli Air Force has long been bombing Iranian and Hezbollah-linked targets in that country. They have been raiding Syrian airports to prevent the transfer of precision weapons from Iran to Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian formations based in Lebanon and Syria. Syria is potentially another flashpoint for a future large-scale war, for the regime of Bashar Assad is also pro-Iranian. In the event of a major war in Lebanon, Syria could become a party to it.

The fourth front is taking place again in Syria, as well as in Iraq, where pro-Iranian Shiite militias are shelling American bases. More than 100 such shellings have already been recorded since October 7. The Americans respond by occasionally bombing militia positions. The goal of the latter and Iran is to force the Americans to withdraw their troops from the areas that Iran considers its sphere of influence - Syria and Iraq - by means of increasing pressure - firing missiles and drones.

The escalation of the conflict in Gaza and American support for Israel have contributed to the Iranians' decision to increase their onslaught on America, Israel's strategic partner.

A fifth front against Israel, the United States and their allies has been opened by the pro-Iranian Houthi movement, which controls a quarter of Yemen, including part of its western coast and the capital, Sanaa. At first, the Houthis fired cruise missiles and drones at ships bound for Israel to support Hamas in Gaza, but then began shelling all ships in the Red Sea in general. Major trading shipping companies and British oil giant bp refused to carry cargo through the region, which was a major blow to the global economy. Much of Europe's trade with China, India and the Middle East passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. 12 per cent of all world trade takes place here, including 9 per cent of the global seaborne oil trade (6 million barrels per day). As a result, the cost of oil has risen. As it turned out, the Houthis and Iran behind them were capable of cutting off this most important trade artery on the planet. The US responded by announcing the formation of an international coalition aimed at protecting ships in the area. If the US mission proves ineffective, it will mean a crushing failure. After all, the status of a great power depends first and foremost on its ability to ensure the security of global production chains. If the US succeeds, it will have confirmed its status.

Geopolitics and economics in the Middle East

Overall, the situation gives the impression of confusion and increasing complexity. In fact, it is quite simple, although it includes many components.

Iran has managed to create a huge network of allies, building a sphere of influence that spans parts of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This Shiite arc allows Tehran to exert influence from Iran's borders to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Hamas is also an Iranian ally and receives financial and military aid from Iran. Iran cannot back down from Hamas as it would mean losing face. At the same time, it is taking advantage of the situation to increase its influence.

What is happening today is a global conflict between Iran and its bloc (the alliance of allies, which Tehran calls the "Axis of Resistance") on the one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other. There is a struggle between the powers for control over the Middle East.

However, as explained above, the US is not interested in a full-scale war with Iran and its allies. Iran does not want it either - after the US sent two aircraft carrier groups to the shores of Israel (in order to protect it), concentrating enormous military power there, Iran's ruling class would not want to experience a joint US-Israeli air strike. This would endanger the lives of Iran's rulers, destroy their nuclear program, and could cause regime collapse amid internal instability and political protests. Although the US has been sluggish, it is nevertheless very strong and under certain conditions, say in the event of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, may decide to side with Israel.

Since neither the US nor Iran wants a major war, they are trying to calibrate their actions carefully, avoiding escalation. However, this is increasingly difficult to do, and the threat of a full-scale war is growing. For example, the Iranians have been directing attacks by the Houthis against merchant ships in the Red Sea, using their own ships to target missiles. What happens if America or Israel sinks one of these ships?

The new year 2024 will answer the question of whether or not a major war will break out in the Middle East.

Caliber.Az