Caravans with weapons heading to Armenia
Who is the supplier – Moscow, New Delhi or Tehran?- PHOTO/VIDEO

ANALYTICS  18 January 2024 - 20:21

The movement of a convoy of cargo vehicles from Iran to Armenia was recorded. According to the operational footage received by Caliber.Az, on January 17, 2024, at 17:50, the movement of two HINO vehicles with an unknown cargo covered with tarpaulins was recorded from the settlement of Julfa of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the direction of the settlement of Nurduz. At approximately 19:55-20:15 hours, the movement of the same convoy was observed from the Nurduz border checkpoint to the customs checkpoint in Agarak of the Republic of Armenia, and at 21:17-21:31 - movement from the settlement of Meghri in the direction of the settlement of Lehvaz.

Because the transportation was carried out in the darkness, and the cargo itself was covered with a tarpaulin, clearly to hide it from prying eyes, there is no doubt that it is of a military purpose. And here nuances appear, which we will discuss below.

Let's start with the main question: who decided to supply weapons to the “land of stones” this time? There are several options here. First on the list is Russia. A couple of days ago, a representative of Pashinyan’s party, retired Gen Gagik Melkonyan, loudly announced that another batch of Russian weapons had been delivered to Armenia. At the same time, he refused to talk about what exactly Moscow supplied to Yerevan.

Let us recall that Pashinyan and his associates have repeatedly accused Russia of refusing to supply weapons already paid for by Yerevan. In this context, it can be assumed that Russia nevertheless decided to transfer the previously paid-for equipment and weapons to its CSTO ally. Or, a new batch of Russian military equipment has gone from Iran to Armenia, which was mentioned by Russian Ambassador Kopyrkin in an interview with TASS back in December 2023.

“Almost all concluded contracts have either already been completed, on time and with high quality, or are at the final stage of implementation. Moscow and Yerevan are also discussing concluding new agreements. New agreements between our countries in the field of military-technical cooperation are also being discussed,” the ambassador said.

It is appropriate to recall here that even during the 44-day war, Russian weapons, equipment, and ammunition flowed into Armenia through the territory of Iran in an endless stream. It can be assumed that Russia decided to go the beaten path and again sent a new batch of weapons to Armenia through Iran. And here a completely reasonable question arises for Moscow: how does it present itself as a mediator for concluding a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia if it continues to arm Yerevan?

The second option is India. Pashinyan himself loudly announced from the rostrum of parliament in 2022 that Armenia will actively develop military-technical cooperation with India. Armenia has shown significant interest in acquiring multiple launch rocket systems, self-propelled artillery, anti-tank guided missiles, artillery radars, anti-drone systems, and even Indian-made missiles. Thus, the Economic Times newspaper wrote that Armenia and India signed a number of agreements on arms supplies. According to the article, the total value of the contracts is about 245 million dollars: four PINAKA MLRS systems and equipment. According to Indian media, the order also includes guided missiles. However, in October 2022, the Indian newspaper The Print added AKASH anti-aircraft missile systems to the list.

In November 2022, Armenia ordered a 155mm self-propelled artillery system from India for about $160 million. The list began to expand after the visit of Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Karen Brutyan to India in February 2023. In addition, as Caliber.Az has already written, that Yerevan is set to purchase air-launched BrahMos medium-range missiles and Pralay ground-based short-range tactical ballistic missiles. It can be assumed that now the government of the nationalist Modi has continued to arm Armenia.

And finally, we cannot exclude the possibility that Iran itself decided to arm Armenia this time. As you know, this country regularly makes threatening statements regarding the Zangazur corridor and that “changing borders in the South Caucasus is a red line”. It can be assumed that Tehran, which is waging proxy wars in different directions (Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, and now Pakistan), has decided that arming Armenia is more expedient than sending its troops to its territory. This decision could have been made in Tehran in defiance of the growing military-technical cooperation of Azerbaijan with Turkey and Israel. And Pakistan is a friendly country to Azerbaijan. Why not spoil your neighbor by arming his enemy?

Whatever option takes place here, Baku will have natural questions for Tehran. According to our data, there were diplomatic agreements between the relevant structures of the two countries that Iran would no longer provide its territory for the transit of weapons to Armenia.

Apparently, the parties agreed on this after it became known last summer about the supply of Indian weapons to Armenia through Iran. And now Iran has obviously violated these agreements. Which will certainly lead to complications in the already improving relations between Baku and Tehran.

At this point, in our opinion, Iranian Azerbaijanis should also have their say. After all, it is through the territory of their residence that caravans with weapons for Armenia pass. They had already shown themselves to be a serious force during the 44-day war. Then Iran played a double game - in words it supported Baku, but in fact it helped Yerevan. In particular, it provided its territory for the transportation of weapons to Armenia.

The regime's duplicity caused massive discontent among Iranian Azeris, who began to hold rallies and protests. Tabriz, Ardabil, Urmia - all were covered in rallies. And if not for these protests, if not for the organization of the Azerbaijanis, then Iran might have openly supported Armenia. And today it is within the power of the southern Azerbaijanis to force the regime in Tehran to abandon the vicious practice of arming the enemies of Azerbaijan. Unless Tehran itself comes out first and voices its position on the issue of delivering weapons to Armenia.

In conclusion, whoever arms Armenia, we want to remind both them and Yerevan of the words of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

“In other words, we should never become complacent. The army-building process will continue, and Armenia should know that no matter how much weaponry it may purchase, no matter how much support they may receive, if there is a source of danger to us, we will immediately eliminate it. I am not hiding it so that no one can say tomorrow that something unexpected happened. Let the listeners hear that if we see a real threat to us, not the rickety French Bastions, those tin cans, but a real threat, we will destroy that threat in any location with preventive measures.”

Caliber.Az