Shot into silence
The West is preparing Armenia for a new war

ANALYTICS  13 February 2024 - 16:15

At a recent meeting with Secretary General of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) Martin Chungong, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that "there is already de facto peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and a peaceful situation has been prevailing on the border of the two countries for several months." When the European Union Ambassador Peter Michalko was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, the statement by the Ministry also emphasized that unprecedented calm reigns on the border.

However, this tranquillity was apparently at the throat of the Armenian authorities and their Western patrons, and today a shot by an Armenian sniper, which wounded an Azerbaijani border guard, undermined the silence established on the conventional border.

There is no doubt that the incident was deliberately and purposefully committed by the Armenian Armed Forces and aimed at aggravating the situation. Armenia, which has never renounced its territorial claims against Azerbaijan, has long been hatching revanchist plans, ineptly concealing them under false peaceful rhetoric. And today's shot by an Armenian sniper has become irrefutable evidence that Armenia is trying to realize its intentions under the cover of the EU reconnaissance and monitoring mission. They call it a monitoring mission in Armenia, but it is a spy organization that operates under this neutral label, which, by the way, was repeatedly written about by Armenian experts themselves, who claimed that the main task of the European landing force in the "country of stones" is to spy on the countries of the region.

The Azerbaijani side has repeatedly stressed that the expansion of this EU mission in Armenia, its activities contrary to the agreements reached, as well as Yerevan's purchase of Indian weapons manufactured under French licenses and direct arms deliveries by Paris contribute to the aggravation of the situation in the region. According to military experts, the recent trip of the French general to Armenia and his appearance on the conditional border with Azerbaijan indicate that Paris is purposefully preparing Yerevan for war.

We assume that Armenia, with the support of external players, may try to conduct a military operation on the conditional border. Such actions, supported by external forces, may lead to further aggravation of the situation and intensification of military clashes in the region. However, the outcome of these actions is obvious for Armenia, which, unfortunately, has not learned to draw conclusions from its own mistakes and cherishes pipe dreams of victory over Azerbaijan.

The fact that Yerevan is preparing another provocation against Azerbaijan was clear from Pashinyan's interview with the British The Telegraph, in which the Armenian Prime Minister allowed himself an aggressive tone and veiled threats.

And today's shot by an Armenian sniper, who was in combat positions on the conditional border, can be considered the beginning of Armenia's realization of its plans.

Video surveillance cameras clearly recorded the actions of the Armenian sniper. We see that the sniper moved forward from the Armenian Armed Forces' combat positions, took up a firing position there, lay in ambush and left after firing at the Azerbaijani soldier. The very nature of the sniper's actions testifies to the fact that this provocation was prepared in advance, and these actions can in no way be passed off as "retaliatory", as the Armenian side likes to claim in such cases.

Having analyzed the current situation, the obvious conclusion is that the sniper shelling of the Azerbaijani border guard is part of a broader strategy by Armenia and its allies to escalate tensions in the region. This provocation was designed to elicit return fire from the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, which would certainly give reason to accuse Baku of "aggressive actions" and thus provide justification for strengthening the European Union's reconnaissance and surveillance mission in Armenia.

It is obvious that Armenia's instigators and patrons are preparing it for destructive actions in the region, which will ensure support for their geopolitical interests under the pretext of "the need to restore stability". Such actions not only undermine the possibilities for peaceful resolution of long-term conflicts, but also lead to deepening disagreements between the countries, increasing the risk of further escalation. However, external actors may pursue their own goals, but the outcome of their actions will be the responsibility of Armenia. Don’t the "hotheads" in Yerevan realize this?

Caliber.Az