Will Trump regain America's top job?
Experts reflect on US electoral landscape

INTERVIEWS  05 March 2024 - 16:46

President Biden's weak leadership and lack of foreign policy strategy have diminished the power and influence of the United States on the world stage. That's former US president Donald Trump's view. "Our country is being destroyed. Our economy is being wrecked by Biden's inflationary nightmare. Our borders are being raided, our values are being attacked. Men are invading women's sports. America is weakened, it is humiliated on the world stage," he said in a video message to the people of Idaho.

Incidentally, on March 2, Donald Trump easily won caucuses (a meeting of supporters and party members) against his rival - former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley - in three states - Idaho, Michigan and Missouri. In all three states, Trump trounced Nikki Haley, his last remaining rival for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, drawing closer to clinching the nomination, according to Reuters.

In Michigan, Trump beat Haley in all 13 counties that held nominating contests, according to the state Republican Party. Overall, Trump won with nearly 98% per cent support: 1,575 votes to just 36 for Haley.

Haley is fast running out of time to alter the course of the Republican nominating race. Next up is Super Tuesday on March 5, the biggest day in the primaries, when 15 states and one territory will vote, Reuters reminds us.

With victories in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the US Virgin Islands, South Carolina, and now Michigan, Missouri and Idaho under his belt, Trump is far and away the frontrunner in the race, with Haley hanging on thanks to support from donors keen for an alternative to the former president, the US media noted.

Put differently, the chances of Trump becoming the sole Republican nominee for president are increasing. And it is most likely that he will have to compete with the incumbent Biden for the American vote. How likely is it that Trump will regain the top job in the US? And does he really threaten world stability, as many write and say? Would it be better for everyone if Biden remained in the presidential chair on a global, planetary scale?

Renowned American experts shared their opinions with Caliber.Az.

John Varoli, a political observer, said that he saw no chance of Donald Trump winning.

"None. Zero. The oligarchs will never allow it. Four years of his rule have been very traumatic for them. Remember their vicious media campaign and the phony Russiagate investigation against Trump? Now look what they're doing: they've fabricated several criminal cases and charges against Trump to put him in jail before the election. Such open political persecution has never happened before in US history. If this does not work, they are going to physically neutralise Trump," he said.

But in his view, the next president is likely to be Camila Harris, as Biden is clearly no longer competent to lead.

"She is going to continue the policy of empire and war that is at the heart of the agenda of the US oligarchy and she is going to claim global hegemony," Varoli said.

Irina Tsukerman, an analyst, geopolitical and security expert and editor-in-chief of The Washington Outsider, says it is impossible at this point to predict the outcome of the November elections.

"Both candidates are extremely unpopular for a variety of reasons, including age, corruption allegations, policy decisions, and image and reputation. Turnout is likely to be low. Ultimately, key swing states could go either way depending on economic and political conditions closer to election day. Fuel prices, rising or falling inflation and other factors could play an unexpected role. Depending on the state, if absentee ballots result in significant early voting, the process will probably favour Joe Biden," the analyst said.

Presidential election years are also notorious for "October surprises", she said, such as political events that lead to a last-minute boost for a candidate and an unexpected fall from grace.

"It is also possible that health problems may arise in older candidates. Ultimately, Joe Biden's political stance is predictable, whether you like or dislike him. Trump, on the other hand, is much more radical in his rhetoric and has no clear future platform. Although most of his supporters support him because of his first term as president, the US is now in a different position economically and politically. Moreover, many of the top Republican officials who have curbed Trump's worst instincts, provided invaluable advice and been responsible for some of his best policy moves will no longer be able to join his team. Most importantly, Trump has not significantly increased his base of support among independents who are likely to gravitate towards more stable policies by breaking down the ideological boundaries between the parties and appealing to a diverse, formerly fringe and now increasingly dominant, isolationist and radical element, especially in light of the multiple international crises facing the country," she said.

"While Biden has been criticised for being weak and performing worse than Trump in his first term, Trump's increasingly open support for US adversaries, including most recently China, may make even some of his staunchest supporters concerned about foreign policy and genuinely committed to hawkish positions rather than supporting Trump as a person," Tsukerman notes.

She believes that if nothing changes between now and November, Biden will have a slight advantage over Trump in the election.

"While Trump has been able to seize power in the Republican Party and get most officials to support him even against their will, his inconsistency is becoming more visible and disorderly, and while many of his supporters may continue to praise him publicly, it's enough if they just stay home, and that may help an incumbent president who is already in a stronger position for institutional reasons," Tsukerman believes.

Caliber.Az