Pundits assess Russia-Armenia growing discord amid recent statements
Alliance on the brink?

INTERVIEWS  08 March 2024 - 14:25

The Russian Foreign Minister's statement on revising relations with Armenia became a subject of discussion among political analysts, and Yerevan even seems to have come to the opinion that Moscow has shown Armenia a red card. At least, after the Diplomatic Forum was over, the media were flooded with concerned comments from Armenian experts.

How far is Moscow ready to go with regard to Yerevan? How do Russia and other CSTO countries perceive Armenia's actions and its policy of militarisation? Caliber.Az asked foreign experts about these questions.

Farhad Kasenov, head of the A+Analytics research centre and Kazakh political scientist, believes that the disagreements between Armenia and Russia are related to the CSTO actions, and Kazakhstan is the CSTO chairman this year, so Astana also bears its own responsibility in settling this issue.

“Let us get to the heart of the matter. Kazakhstan has always advocated strict compliance with international agreements, and the CSTO charter has always assumed that in the event of a threat to the borders and security of the bloc's member countries, CSTO troops are ready to stand in their defence. In this sense, Armenia's position and its grievances against the CSTO are incomprehensible if, in fact, Armenia's internationally recognised borders were not violated during the 44-day war. Azerbaijan was merely restoring its territorial integrity recognised by international law and the UN.

Therefore, all these insinuations by Armenian politicians that the CSTO has failed to fulfil its obligations are legally unlawful. Azerbaijan has neither crossed nor violated Armenia's borders - this applies both to the seven de-occupied districts and the territory of the Karabakh region, which is part of Azerbaijan. Therefore, all Yerevan's claims to the CSTO and its member states are untenable," the political analyst stressed.

Moreover, as Kasenov noted, Armenia itself is now violating CSTO protocols by building configurations of military cooperation with countries outside the bloc. At the same time, these countries are openly hostile to the CSTO - France, Greece and India.

«Of course, being a free country, Armenia can build its own security strategy and conclude international agreements. But it should be borne in mind that Russia regards the alliance of friendly and partner countries with NATO member states as a hostile move towards itself. It is no secret that the CSTO was originally a microanalogue of the Warsaw Pact countries. Now we realise that relations between Russia and NATO countries are even worse than during the Cold War. And Ukraine, as we remember, only became a target of military action as a result of its intentions to become a member of the EU and NATO. It is at least strange for Armenia, which is actively increasing its cooperation with NATO, not to take these geopolitical realities into account. Given that Azerbaijan has never violated international laws and rules, it is unclear why Armenia is now so concerned about its security, and why it is even putting forward some of its own proposals, such as a non-aggression pact? Maybe instead it would be better to conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, confirm each other's integrity on paper and start building a new configuration of peaceful development in the South Caucasus?

Recently, presidential elections were held in Azerbaijan, including in the de-occupied territories, and the country now faces only one agenda: peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Interestingly, the same peace agenda is also relevant for Armenia. Since it is Armenia that is the "white crow" with its revanchist position in the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia adhere to exclusively peaceful principles in their development. Kazakhstan sincerely hopes that a sober, rational approach to building a peaceful life in the South Caucasus will prevail in Armenia," Kasenov emphasised.

At the same time, as Russian political scientist Renat Savin believes, Armenian claims against Russia have reached such a high level of absurdity and intensity that a storm is bound to erupt. And the statements of the Russian Foreign Minister are a harbinger of this.

"As far as I understand, Moscow's actions are also dictated by the situation that arose on the margins of the Diplomatic Forum in Türkiye, where Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan avoided meetings with Sergey Lavrov for three days on principle. And the latter expressed his serious concerns about Armenia within the framework of the forum. In essence, this is a political scandal, which is inadmissible between allied states and which was obvious to all participants of the international forum. As a result, Lavrov had to communicate with Mirzoyan and discuss important issues on the phone after his return to Moscow. An absurd situation.

So Russia sees from such actions of Yerevan that partnership and respect are out of the question, Armenia is aimed at escalating military confrontation in the South Caucasus. Therefore, I think, Russia will react, and it will be very painful for Armenia, how exactly - we will see," Savin concluded.

Caliber.Az