Pundit sheds light on Armenia's game causing Moscow's displeasure
Anti-Russian demarches and EU dreams

INTERVIEWS  10 March 2024 - 13:21

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Stas Pritchin, a Russian expert and senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences.

- Do you admit the possibility of Armenia's accession to the European Union, which Yerevan has been dreaming about lately?

- Objectively, Yerevan's membership in the European Union seems to be a long-term prospect, if it is possible at all. The fact is that there are certain criteria of the EU - the standard of living, standards of democracy, economy and everything else, and Armenia, of course, is not a country that can be considered a candidate by any parameters.

Yes, today there are cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which, except for Georgia, were included in the list of EU candidates for political reasons in advance, and in the case of Armenia, there is a possibility that it may become a candidate for EU membership for political reasons. But this does not mean that Armenia will become a full member of this structure for political reasons.

- Can Armenia become a member of the EU while the country is a member of the EAEU?

- It seems to me that Armenia's candidate status to the EU will be linked directly to its withdrawal from the EAEU. Whether Armenia is ready to do that is a big question. After all, as you know, Armenia has many privileges in the EAEU, including the possibility for Armenian labour migrants to work without a patent, duty-free trade with Russia and many others. Deprived of a solid package of advantages, Armenia will face enormous economic difficulties, which will not be compensated by any assistance from the EU. So, this is a very serious fork for Armenia, and it is even more fundamental, I would say, than its withdrawal from the CSTO. Yes. Armenia's membership in the EAEU is also an interesting aspect that is not discussed in the Armenian public sphere. While criticism of the CSTO is constantly voiced, there is no silence regarding the EAEU.

- Do you think that Armenia will decide to withdraw from the CSTO?

- It is difficult to make predictions. On the one hand, we see constant criticism of the CSTO, but at the same time, the question of Armenia's final withdrawal from this organization is not raised. Membership is suspended, representation is withdrawn, and in a word, a game is being played. I think that in many respects the final decision will depend on Russia's decisive actions, on whether it will take any real tough steps towards Armenia. This is also a big question. Nevertheless, I admit that withdrawal from the CSTO is possible.

- What practical actions can Moscow take in relation to Yerevan?

- So far, we see a toughening of Moscow's rhetoric at the level of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, which is a clear indicator of dissatisfaction with Armenian policy. And if Armenia continues its policy in the same vein, sooner or later Russia is likely to move from tough statements to practical actions against Yerevan. However, it seems that Armenia wants to receive some tough actions from the Russian Federation in order to justify its anti-Russian demarches related to the withdrawal of Russian border guards from the country, and then justify itself by saying that, you see, it was not us, but the CSTO that forced us to leave the country. So this is also a kind of shifting of responsibility for the final resolution of the issue. The withdrawal of the Russian military base has not yet been announced in Yerevan, although it is in the air, and accordingly, in the event of a complete breakdown of Armenian-Russian relations, such a scenario may also be possible.

- Do you consider it possible for French military bases to appear in Armenia?

- This is also possible. Although the deployment of French bases will not guarantee Armenia's security in the region.

Caliber.Az