Carbon dioxide emissions and sea level rise
Is the connection obvious?

WORLD  14 March 2024 - 16:37

Among the many problems troubling humanity, the most pressing and capable of disturbing the minds of the public is global warming. According to some scientific communities, global warming is caused by human activities, particularly the emissions of carbon dioxide produced by the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal.

Global warming, in turn, causes glaciers to melt, causing water levels in the seas and oceans to rise. This is the simple formula used by the press and politicians for decades to achieve their short-term and long-term goals.

We will try to figure out how much this formula corresponds to scientific standards with the help of expert opinion.

Rising sea levels on planet Earth may be partly explained by astronomical influences involving the Sun, Moon, and other planets, according to a new Heritage Fund study analyzing media reports on climate change that fixate on carbon dioxide emissions at the same time while ignoring other factors.

The gravitational interactions of celestial bodies throughout the solar system are among a broader set of natural phenomena affecting the oceans highlighted in a special report by the Heritage Fund. (The Daily Signal is a news publication of the Heritage Fund.)

Unfortunately, many media outlets and academic journals incorrectly believe that only warming periods and human activities can have a significant impact on sea level rise, usually seizing on definitions that are "ambiguous" and "insufficient." David Legates, climate scientist and professor emeritus, writes about this. at the University of Delaware, who is a Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Fund.

“A more useful definition of sea level rise, or coastal flooding as it should be called, is a rise in water level relative to adjacent land,” Legates said in the report.

The new research paper could be a vital tool for policymakers, said Diane Ferchtgott-Roth, director of the Heritage Fund's Center for Energy, Climate and Environment.

"Professor Legate's work is extremely important because it shatters the myth that carbon dioxide emissions and industrialization are causing sea levels to rise," Furchtgott-Roth told The Daily Signal. “It is important to understand the true causes of sea level rise to have cost-effective policies to combat it.”

In the document, Legates cautions policymakers against halting all man-made emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the U.S., as climate activists have called for, because there is “no evidence” that these actions will mitigate any processes, natural or man-made, causing sea level rise.

To assume, as many media definitions do, that land is “immovable” is a mistake, he writes. The ground can rise or fall depending on several factors, Legates explains:

Isostatic processes—when [the Earth's] crust returns to a state of equilibrium due to the addition or removal of surface forces—usually occur over long periods, often involving the formation and disappearance of ice sheets. However, changes in coastal elevation can also be caused by glacial erosion, changes in river courses, groundwater pumping, and changes in land-use irrigation systems.

Sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age about 22,000 years ago, and it's not just carbon dioxide or CO2, Legates said.

The scientist refutes climate alarmists' views on rising sea levels as part of a broader media narrative about "extreme weather" and related issues, which he says falsely conflates recent climate trends with human activity.

“Sea levels rose at an accelerated rate between 7,000 and 15,000 years ago, and this change in the rate of global sea level rise was not due solely to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations,” Legates writes. "A much better explanation is that most sea level rise is a response to the interglacial period and that balance of the polar ice caps has not yet been achieved."

Frequently heard in the press and scientific community, the idea that sea levels will rise 15 to 30 feet from 2023 to 2100 is “political hype and does not reflect the science, even when promoted by climate alarmists with science degrees,” Legates writes.

The climatologist calls for a more responsible and deeper awareness and understanding of the natural processes.

“Understanding the mechanisms of how sea levels rise and fall is much more complex than simply linking sea level rise to temperature changes due to carbon dioxide emissions,” Legates writes, citing the jurisdictions of Florida and Virginia as examples.

“Clearly, when news coverage of places where coastal flooding has been greatest (such as Miami Beach and Virginia Beach), reporting journalists and scientists must have a more compelling theory than sea level rise caused by global warming. Otherwise, such a picture would be the same in all coastal areas of the world at the same time.”

Factors other than CO2 “play nontrivial roles in sea level fluctuations and variability,” Legates writes. This is where the effects of planetary rotation and gravitational interactions come into the equation.

According to his research, solar activity affects parts of the Pacific and Indian oceans, while the gravitational pull of other celestial bodies can change the Earth's orbit, which can lead to a significant impact on the parameters of our planet, including climate.

Legate describes astronomical dynamics in his work as follows:

Changes in the Earth's rotation are caused by interactions within the Sun-Earth-Moon system (including the influence of Jupiter and nearby planets) and the solar wind acting on the Earth's magnetosphere. As a result, water is redistributed between the tropics and the poles due to an increase in the equatorial diameter of the Earth, which occurs as the Earth's rotation increases.

Thus, sea level rises in the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans during the Great Solar Minima and decreases during the Great Solar Maxima. The observed 20-to-26-year sea level variability may be related to the Earth's rotation. The Earth's gravitational pull is also an important component of global and regional sea level changes.

In general, where gravitational forces are stronger, sea levels will be higher, which is counterintuitive. As an ice sheet melts, the sea level decreases near the melting ice sheet but rises well away from the melting ice sheet due to changes in gravitational forces. Because gravity is not constant across the planet, there are local and regional variations in sea level that occur due to differences in gravity.

Legate also addresses some of the concerns associated with sea level rise, such as the potential for storm surge and coastal flooding. The professor concludes that coastal warning systems are much more effective at protecting life and property than any attempt to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

That's because sea levels are rising for natural reasons that have nothing to do with man-made circumstances, and the impact of greenhouse gases is "extremely small," the scientist writes.

Thus, this study introduces some dissonance into the harmonious chorus of scientists, journalists, and politicians who insist that there is no alternative to the anthropogenic factor in the problem of increasing sea and ocean levels. Whether such sprouts of such independent, alternative research will be able to break through the consciousness of frightened humanity, time, and perhaps the upcoming COP29 environmental forum in Baku will tell.

Caliber.Az