Which side Kazakhstan to choose - Turkish or Russian?
Review by Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  18 April 2022 - 12:28

Establishment of a military-political alliance of Turkic states cannot be ruled out, it can start establish around the Organization of Turkic States. However, here much, along with Turkey and Azerbaijan, will depend on position of Kazakhstan, the largest Turkic state by territory. By the example of Kazakhstan, we will consider today the possible choice of Turkey or Russia by Nur-Sultan as its main military-political ally. Yes, now Kazakhstan is a member of the CSTO, but the situation in the world is changing rapidly and here are possible different options. 

Kazakhstan is a huge state, with 19 million people, rich in natural resources. More recently, the country invited Russian troops to protect the government of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who was threatened by strikes of skilled workers in Western Kazakhstan and the revolt of low-skilled workers and the unemployed in Almaty and Shimkent. However, very soon the authorities of this country asked the Russian Federation and other CSTO states to withdraw their armed forces. However, the fact that they called in Russian troops and not Turkish ones is remarkable.

In Turkey, the decision sparked a lively discussion and press commentary that Moscow had taken a step ahead of Ankara. Some commentators said that Turkey should work to turn the Organization of Turkic States into a full-fledged military-political alliance.

Today, Kazakhstan's position is changing. "Kazakhstan will not help Russia circumvent sanctions imposed against it by the United States and European Union countries," Timur Suleymenov, first deputy head of Kazakhstan's presidential administration, said in an interview with Euractiv. 

The Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that Suleymenov said it was important for Kazakhstan to demonstrate to its European partners that the country would not become a tool for Russia to circumvent sanctions. "We will comply with the sanctions. Despite the fact that we are part of an economic union with Russia, Belarus and other countries, we are also part of the international community. Therefore, the last thing we want is for secondary sanctions to be applied to Kazakhstan by the United States and the EU," he stressed. 

What's next? Russia says it has its own interests in Ukraine and has deployed troops on its territory. Northern Kazakhstan is largely populated by Russians and Russian-speaking people. Many Russian patriots today would say that Russia has its interests there as well. The whole question is how the Kazakh government will act.

The Shusha Declaration provided the military protection of Turkey to Azerbaijan. Is it possible that the government of Kazakhstan will agree to a similar agreement in time? We live in a new era when the world is changing rapidly. History is becoming more malleable, tensions between countries are rising, and their pre-existing borders may become "blurred". In this case, Kazakhstan may go for a direct military alliance with Turkey, which has made no secret of its intention to expand its sphere of influence. What if Ankara and Nur-Sultan's interests coincide? 

There is another aspect here - the economic one. Russia, being under growing sanctions, may become a problematic place for Kazakhstani companies. However, the same Suleymenov says that Kazakhstan will continue to trade with Russia, invest in the country, and attract investment for it. But even China, which says it will not comply with sanctions that do not come from the UN, nevertheless reduces trade with Russia and freezes investment in it for fear of falling under U.S. and EU sanctions.

If we add that a huge part of Kazakhstan's economy and natural resources are controlled by international business, the situation becomes even more interesting. On February 2, Forbes reported that 25 foreign taxpayers contributed more than 28% of all taxes to Kazakhstan's budget. There are American, European, Japanese, South Korean, as well as Chinese, and Turkish companies. There is no doubt that their voice matters in this country's policymaking as well.

However, in light of recent events, political considerations may come first. Kazakhstan, of course, will not sever ties with Russia, it may be too traumatic. Most likely, it will demonstrate a moderate policy, gradually strengthening ties with Turkey.

Caliber.Az