Analyst: Armenia prefers to postpone solving problems for long time

INTERVIEWS  10 May 2022 - 14:05

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Professor of Hankuk University of Regional Studies (South Korea), Rovshan Ibrahimov.

- What are the possible results of protests in Armenia? Is the "Karabakh clan" able to overthrow Pashinyan? 

- Given the weakness of Armenian state institutions, these protests can result in anything, including the overthrow of the current government. In order to carry out a coup, or, as it is called in Armenian, a revolution, there is no need to have the support of the majority of the population. Only those who take to the streets are enough. If you remember, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan himself came to power from the streets in the same way in 2018. So why shouldn't the Armenian opposition repeat his successful experience? In general, there is nothing stopping it.

Of course, Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party won a majority of seats in parliament as a result of the latest snap elections, but this does not mean anything. As I said above, the small number of people who will take to the streets of Armenia is enough to consolidate with the aim of staging a coup in the country. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the opposition forces have consolidated to the maximum this time. This is one of the largest protests in recent times, including the post-war period in 2020. I think that if they do not manage to do something now, this protest potential will soon subside. The opposition is unlikely to repeat its current success. Therefore, Pashinyan undoubtedly needs to hold on to power during the current protests. However, this largely depends on which side the Armenian power structures would take, as their loyalty plays a major role. A lot depends on whether the security forces remain loyal to the current government or change their direction.

There is another important aspect of the protest movement in Armenia. In Armenia itself, trust in former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan is at a minimal level. In general, the Armenian people do not want to return to the past under the leadership of the "Karabakh clan". The people are not happy with them. That is why they are not an alternative to Pashinyan. But again, I repeat, there is no need for majority support to change the government, if the minority manages to do so, the situation is unlikely to be changed.

- Can Pashinyan use protest sentiments to delay the negotiation process with Azerbaijan?

- Pashinyan knows how to take advantage of any situation, even one that goes against his wishes and does not correspond to his interests. Undoubtedly, he will now take advantage of the current situation. Judging by the current agenda and actions of the incumbent government, Armenia has chosen the traditional way of postponing the solution of problems for a long time. In the meantime, Armenia's history shows that procrastination does not solve problems, on the contrary, problems only grow, and with time, become a huge burden for official Yerevan. They face a harsh reality that is difficult to cope with.

- Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan suggested a possible solution to the "enclave problem" between Armenia and Azerbaijan at a parliamentary briefing. "The possible solution is as follows: the enclaves of Armenia remain to Azerbaijan, the enclaves of Azerbaijan that are on the territory of Armenia remain to the Republic of Armenia," he said. Is the option mentioned by Grigoryan possible?

- This is one of the options that Armenia will offer. Presumably, there are approximately equal territories here. So this could be one of the working options for resolving this problem. But other factors also play a role here. For that reason, I think it is very early now to say that Armenia’s proposal will be accepted by Azerbaijan.

In any case, the issue of enclaves is a subject of discussion in the negotiations between the parties, because we should not forget that any change of Azerbaijani territory is possible only if there is a referendum in the country. Even if we are talking about small territories, the enclaves are part of Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory.

Caliber.Az