"Europeans have sufficient leverage over Armenia"
Aleksandr Shatilov for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  31 May 2022 - 17:18

Russian political analyst, Dean of the Sociology and Political Sciences Faculty of the Financial University under the Russian government Aleksandr Shatilov, has said that the Europeans have sufficient leverages over Armenia.

"Presently, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashyanyan is caught between a rock and a hard place," Shatilov told Caliber.Az.

"On the one hand, pressure is exerted on Pashinyan through Azerbaijan and the European Council, on the other hand, the opposition and public opinion also exert pressure as the loss of the Karabakh region is likely to provoke mass riots. Therefore, I think that Pashinyan's team will either try to protract the discussion of the Karabakh problem as much as possible or will partially make concessions," the political analyst said.

He noted that European mediation greatly affects Pashinyan's policy.

"Taking into account that once Pashinyan and those Armenian elite clans that stand behind him relied on priority interaction with the West, I think that the Europeans have sufficient leverages of influence on Armenia," Shatilov said.

He added that Armenia will strive for differentiation, trying to put off the Karabakh issue "for later".

"In turn, taking into account the favourable situation, Azerbaijan will actively promote a comprehensive format, trying to kill two birds with one stone," the analyst said.

Shatilov added that the Armenian opposition protests against Pashinyan affect the negotiation process.

"The protests of the Armenian opposition influence the position of the authorities, creating a hypothetical threat of regime change. However, no one is interested in a political explosion, except for the opposition itself. On the whole, the West is pleased with Pashinyan, Russia is busy in another direction and at the moment it is rendering Armenia only moral support," he noted.

While speaking about the statement made by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova that Moscow sees "the EU's stubborn attempts to intervene in the process of implementing tripartite agreements at the highest level" and expects "Brussels to help to implement them, rather than try to play geopolitical games", Shatilov said that another attack on the EU, which opposes Moscow in the clashes with Ukraine, rather than Russia's desire to actively intervene in the negotiation process, is observed.

"I think that the Russian leadership expected the negotiations to be mainly held with Turkiye as it is always easier for Russia to agree with it than with European bureaucrats unable to accept a different point of view," the analyst noted.

In conclusion, Shatilov said that presently, there are no objective prerequisites for a regime change in Armenia.

"Even if the opposition succeeds in overthrowing Pashinyan, the geopolitical situation at this stage will still remain unfavourable for Armenia," he added.

Caliber.Az