“Armenia has already started the path to self-destruction…”
Caliber.AZ interviews State Counselor of Russia

INTERVIEWS  02 June 2022 - 21:14

Tatyana Poloskova, Doctor of Political Science, First Class State Counselor of Russia, Director of the “Vostochniy Vektor” Consulting Center, commented in an interview with Caliber.Az on the political situation in Armenia, which is currently caused by anti-government protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for his intention to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

- Given the massive protests in Yerevan caused by dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities, do you think that the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Russia and Europe, will normalise relations between the two countries in the foreseeable future?

- Armenian President Vahagn Khachatryan stated that he is optimistic about the prospects of the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue. I do not share this optimism. Just recently, the Armenian Foreign Minister accused the Azerbaijani of “militant rhetoric”. In the leadership of Armenia and the political establishment of this country, there is a fairly large proportion of those who say that they will never accept the option of returning Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

As for public sentiments, large-scale rallies are unfolding right before our eyes not only in the capital of Armenia but even in rural areas. If at the level of the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia there is mutual understanding on many key issues in the development of bilateral relations, then tough rhetoric remains at the level of civil society. And it is impossible to achieve a real normalisation of relations without including not only the elites but also the populace of the two countries in this process.

Regarding mediation efforts, I can say that this is certainly an important factor. But amidst the economic and humanitarian catastrophe caused by the “special operation” in Ukraine, which resulted in a split in the world and severe sanctions against Russia, the topic of the South Caucasus faded into the background. And the very phrase "Russia as an intermediary" causes a sarcastic smile for many in the world. As well as the presence of peacekeepers on the territory of the Karabakh region.

- Can street protests and revanchist moods lead to a change of power in Armenia?

- They can, but Armenia started the path to self-destruction even before them. The population is leaving, as migrants say, "from the cold Sevan to the warm waters of the Atlantic." The Armenian diaspora is disappointed in official Yerevan and no longer wants to allocate huge subsidies, which instead of helping children go to luxury cars and villas of the Yerevan elite. According to experts, in recent years the potential of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the United States has increased significantly. In alliance with the Turkish one, it is no longer inferior in the potential to the Armenian one. And among the Armenians of Russia, the voices of those who call Armenia a “failed project” are getting louder. Revanchist moods are not only a reaction to the lost war but also to the fact that in 30 years it was not possible to create a really independent, economically strong state. This is agony. And if the Armenian society continues to follow this path, then this country will disappear from the world map.

- Five basic proposals of Baku. Will they be carried out by the Armenian side?

- The Armenian media and many politicians give a different interpretation of this issue. “A vile, anti-national and anti-state deal is being made behind the Armenian people by the government of Nikol Pashinyan,” said Deputy Chairman of the Republican Party of the country (RPA) Armen Ashotyan. The Armenian authorities are accused by the opposition of concealing the content of Yerevan's six proposals, and so on. When these proposals appeared in the public space, it became clear that official Yerevan was continuing the ridiculous game of delaying the signing of the peace treaty. He appeals to the Minsk Group, which has shown complete political weakness, and tries to change his mind in no time. We are witnessing the sabotage of the negotiation process by a significant part of the Armenian elite. And in any peaceful settlement, the signing of a treaty is not as important as the steps to implement it.

- Why does Pashinyan not stop the daily shelling of the positions of the Azerbaijani Army by the Armenian military?

- Pashinyan is trying not only to maintain power. This is a stage that already passed. Passed without much success. We are talking about preserving freedom if opposition forces come to power. And, perhaps, lives, if the protests take on a massively and spontaneously. There have been such precedents in history. On June 1, in Yerevan, relatives of those killed in the 2020 war in Karabakh went to a protest in front of the building of the Investigative Committee, demanding that Pashinyan be brought to justice. A trifle? But constant dropping wears away the stone. And Pashinyan is by no means a "people's favorite" and even more so not a "people's tribune". As prime minister, Pashinyan does clearly not control the processes in the Armenian state, even at key points. He does not have a serious support group in power structures, much less the presence of an international pool of "friends of Prime Minister Pashinyan." He is a tragic figure in his own way. And, oddly enough, the development and strengthening of relations with Azerbaijan, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with Turkiye can strengthen Pashinyan's position. But he does not fully decide on these steps either. I don’t know if it was because of personal qualities or under the pressure of external forces.

- So will a peace treaty be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

- Someday it will be. But I don't think it will be any time soon...

- How do you assess Moscow’s stance on Baku and Yerevan at the moment? What factors irritate Russia?

-Yes, Russia is not up to Baku and Yerevan now. The blitzkrieg did not work out in Ukraine, the sanctions are hurting the Russian economy and the lives of ordinary Russians... The spiritual state of society, of course, is not the rosiest. Ordinary Russians have no wish to deal with South Caucasus right now. And not only ordinary ones. Possibly, Central Asia will soon be flare up as well - the situation there is complicated. But I will share these observations in a few months when I finish monitoring the Central Asian region. With what I am busy now. And a lot of things irritate the Kremlin now. More and more things are perceived as a revelation. This always happens when subordinates seek to please the authorities and do not show the real picture of what is happening. A moment of truth comes somewhen. Unfortunately, with a high cost.

- What is the probability of normalisation of the Armenian-Turkish relations?

- I think it's very big. Armenians have lived in Turkiye for centuries and still live there. Moreover, they take quite strong positions not only in the economy but also in politics. Unfortunately, little is known about this side of the life of Turkish society in Russia. As well as about the real history of the creation of Armenia with its capital in Yerevan, about the role that political games played in the formation of the country's territories. Who benefited from setting fire to the Ottoman Empire using the Armenian factor, and for what purposes. If not for the mentioned political games and Dashnak provocations, then the Armenians would have lived in Turkey. In peace with other nations. So I don't see any serious obstacles to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Moreover, despite the closure of the border, contacts between the peoples of Armenia and Turkiye did not stop. But this is a separate and large topic.

Caliber.Az