Why Türkiye getting closer to Pakistan?
Analysis by Maxim Petrov

ANALYTICS  20 June 2022 - 13:10

The modern Middle East keeps dividing into blocks. The US is gradually losing interest in the region as it is engaged in a standoff with Russia in Europe and China in East Asia, creating a power vacuum there. Various powers are seeking to fill it. As they compete for domination in the Middle East, they create blocs that oppose one another. Three main alliances are being formed.

The first is the Iranian-Shiite alliance. This alliance includes a number of Shiite groups, parties, militias and influential politicians and militaries in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon along with the Iranian theocracy. This alliance gained strength after the American withdrawal from most of Iraq, resulting in the domination of Iranian influence in that country, stretching through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. The latter is controlled by the pro-Iranian armed Hezbollah party.

The second, the Arab-Israeli or Sunni-Israeli bloc, includes countries that joined the Abrahamic agreements. These agreements were a major diplomatic success of former US President Donald Trump's administration. They involve the normalisation and building of diplomatic relations and, potentially, a close economic and military partnership between Israel on the one hand and a group of Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, on the other. Another influential and wealthy Persian Gulf monarchy, Saudi Arabia, is in alliance with these countries, although it has not officially joined the Abrahamic agreements. Egypt and, to some extent, Jordan also cooperate with them.

The Arab alliance with Israel is a result of the confrontation with Iran. This country is today the main rival of both the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf and Israel. The Arab-Iranian conflict has come to the fore and has led to a rapprochement between a number of Sunni Arab states and Israel. This has overshadowed Israel's conflict with the Palestinian Arabs, a conflict that has caused the vast majority of Arab countries to refuse to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel.

A third bloc, the Sunni bloc, was formed by Türkiye and the Persian Gulf's rich gas princedom, Qatar, as well as a number of movements associated with Sunni political Islam, from Libya's Tripoli-based government to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, the Palestinian Hamas movement and most Sunni Arab and Turkoman rebels in Syria, fighting against President Bashar al-Assad and his pro-Iranian regime. The bloc maintains a complex, at times very tense relationship with the other two alliances.

But it would be a big mistake to think that the influence of the three blocs is limited to the Middle East.

The US patronises the Israeli-Arab bloc while maintaining a partnership with the alliance of Türkiye and Qatar, while at the same time opposing the Iranian bloc to varying degrees.

India, a rising superpower, while getting closer to the US, maintains close ties with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Israel. The Saudis and Emiratis, as major oil powers and financial centres, have become India's trading partners and attractive investors. Saudi Arabia is the country's fourth-largest trading partner (after China, the US and Japan) and a major source of energy, as India imports about 17 per cent of its crude oil needs from there. Israel, the Middle East's leading high-tech and defence industry centre, has become one of India's key arms suppliers, while for Israel, India is the N1 importer of its military-industrial complex products.

For its part, Türkiye has been just as active in developing ties that extend far beyond the Middle East. While the Trump administration bet on cooperation with Türkiye in the last year of its administration, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had a cool relationship with President Biden. This factor, as well as the attraction by Türkiye's rival blocs of various partner states, such as India, further encourage the Turkish state to actively seek partners and form independent international alliances. Such alliances include economic, military, and political cooperation with Azerbaijan based on the Shusha Declaration.

This includes the development of ties within the Organisation of the Turkic States, which in addition to Türkiye itself includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. This union of countries with a total population of 160 million people and a total GDP of $1.5 trillion was originally more of a cultural and economic association. However, after the uprising in Kazakhstan in early 2022, the Turkish media started talking about the need to turn the organisation into a military-political alliance.

Another focus of Türkiye's efforts is to strengthen ties with Pakistan. This country, India's eternal rival, is necessary for Türkiye as a counterweight against India, which is getting increasingly closer to Israel and the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf. But it would be wrong to reduce everything to geopolitics, that is, the struggle of powers and blocs for control over geographical space and other resources. Although this is an important part of reality, the whole is more complex and interesting.

First of all, it is worth pointing out the importance of Türkiye's economic partnership with Pakistan. Commenting on Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif's recent visit to Türkiye, independent public policy analyst Zubair Faisal Abbasi said that the visit "appears to be a multifaceted diplomatic attempt to revive cooperation between the two nation-states and a step necessary to attract investment and prevent a financial crisis knocking on the door". Sharif spoke of the need to increase Pakistan-Türkiye bilateral trade to $5 billion over the next three years, pointing out that the current trade volume of $1.1 billion a year is "insufficient". To put it bluntly, the numbers are not great indeed, given that Türkiye's trade with Russia is $33 billion, compared to about $25 billion with the United States.

Abbasi notes that "Pakistan needs to invest in export-oriented industrialisation". In other words, countries should develop export-oriented industries - this is considered to be the key to economic success in the modern world, and Pakistan counts on Turkish capital and technology in this area. But not only there. Sharif invited Turkish investors to invest more in Pakistan, saying, "Pakistan's energy sector, with its huge potential for hydro, thermal, coal, wind and solar energy, could prove ideal. Pakistan, for its part, would like to use Turkish experience in building dams and other infrastructure facilities".

Another important aspect of the bilateral relationship is the arms trade. Türkiye has become one of the most important arms exporters to Pakistan, playing a role similar to the one Israel plays in relation to India. This has been the result of a series of major defence deals between Pakistan and Türkiye. Erdogan tweeted: "We intend to expand our trade, which exceeded $1 billion for the first time since 2011, [to] $5 billion. We are happy with the defence industry cooperation we are developing with Pakistan. We appreciate our cooperation on corvettes under the MILGEM project." A warship of this type entered service last month.

Interestingly, despite the growing tension between Ankara and Tehran, Pakistani and Turkish leaders are discussing the possibility of building an Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul railroad. According to Sharif, such a route, by linking Iran and Central Asia with Türkiye and Europe, would facilitate regional trade.

Michael Tanchum, a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, made the following curious statement in connection with the Türkiye-Pakistan talks: "Türkiye is looking at the big Eurasian chessboard and is looking for ways to include Pakistan in new connections. It is paving the way through Central Asia, through the Organisation of Turkic States. Pakistan provides landlocked Central Asian members with critical access to the Indian Ocean."

In addition, Pakistan has a major influence on the Taliban, which has recently become the master of Afghanistan. For its part, Türkiye is interested in increasing its own influence in Afghanistan, because the position of members of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Central Asia depends largely on the policies of the Taliban. Thus, Pakistan's and Türkiye's interests largely coincide in this area as well.

It is true that Türkiye has recently diversified its international ties. It has become closer to the UAE and Israel, as well as to India. Turkish politicians do not put all eggs in one basket. In addition, Türkiye might want to make the policies of its rival blocs less hostile by expanding economic partnerships with them.

Nevertheless, strengthening Türkiye's alliance with Pakistan is one of Ankara's key policies.

Caliber.Az