Are Israel and Lebanon heading for another war?
Review by Maxim Petrov

ANALYTICS  04 July 2022 - 14:27

Anyone can read on Wikipedia that Karish is a gas field that belongs to Israel and is located in the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. It was discovered in May 2013 and its initial, i.e. discovered by researchers, gas reserves amount to 45-57 billion cubic meters.

But not everything is as simple as the authors of the know-it-all Wiki believe. Karish is located in disputed waters because Lebanon also considers this area to be its own. According to Reuters reports, Lebanon has demanded that drilling be frozen until a border demarcation treaty is signed.

Negotiations on the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon began in October 2020 and were brokered by the US and the UN. They did not lead to any solutions - Lebanon still claims Karish while Israel rejects its rights.

In June, the Israelis advanced into action. They secured the delivery of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) platform Energean Power to the field. The Lebanese vehemently protested and demanded that Israel stop all work immediately.

Besides that, their ability to influence what is happening is quite limited. The Lebanese army is weak, while Israel has probably the most powerful military force in the Middle East.

But Lebanon has a trump card, and it is called Hezbollah. It is a pro-Iranian Shiite militia that has the most serious armed militia in Lebanon, outnumbering the local army. Hezbollah has guerilla forces - sabotage, reconnaissance, and guerrilla units geared to fight the Israeli army, as well as tank units, artillery brigades, and special forces. Its main trump card is its impressive missile capability, built with Iran's support. It has 100,000 to 200,000 missiles aimed at Israel, including high-precision missiles. The organization also has attack drones in service. Moreover, with the support of Iran, underground factories for the production of high-precision missiles are being or have been built in Lebanon. Hezbollah has been quite effective against Israel in the past. Its rocket rains have dealt painful blows to the country's cities, paralyzing the Israeli economy, while its guerrilla actions have forced the Israel Defenсe Forces to withdraw from Lebanon every time the Israelis entered in an attempt to stop the shelling. The second Lebanese-Israeli war in 2006 ended unsuccessfully for Israel, according to the reports of the Israeli Eliyahu Vinograd Commission.

This begs the question: is Hezbollah ready to use its military capabilities against Israel today? Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah noted that his organization has all the necessary resources at its disposal to defend Lebanon's borders.

Will the war break out?

In today's world, the situation easily descends into armed conflicts, as it has happened more than once, so nothing can be ruled out. In addition, because of the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the collective West on Russia, gas prices have risen. The cost of gas fields has increased, and there is a fight over who will supply gas to the European Union instead of Russia. Moreover, the Europeans began to diversify their gas sources even before February 24, 2022. Hence the conflicts between Türkiye on the one hand and a group of European countries (Greece, Cyprus, France) on the other hand over disputed gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. The new Lebanese-Israeli dispute is of the same nature.

There are other factors that could cause war. "Hezbollah is not completely independent; it is an armed hand of Iran. The organization receives financial and military aid from Tehran to the tune of $700 million annually. Iran and Israel have been constantly exchanging military strikes in the last couple of years and a major war could break out between the two countries at any time. Moreover, Israel considers Hezbollah's production of high-precision missiles in underground factories to be a red line, and, according to some analysts, it is already underway. So all the prerequisites for war are in place.

Nevertheless, right now is a very inconvenient time for a Lebanese-Israeli war. First, it is inconvenient for Israel. There is a severe political crisis, the government has fallen, and new elections are coming. According to preliminary estimates, they will take place at the end of October. Yair Lapid is becoming the head of the transitional government. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet is now head of the Foreign Ministry. In this situation of chaos, the Israeli authorities have no time for war.

Second, there is also a political crisis in Lebanon. Hezbollah and its allies suffered a major electoral defeat. The party is very unpopular in Lebanon today. It has 13 of the 128 seats in parliament, its supporters were defeated, and about 60% of Lebanese did not come to the elections at all, considering them a farce or nonsense.

In truth, it is Hezbollah that rules Lebanon, regardless of any elections, with overwhelming military power. "We are held hostage by a religious militia," Lebanese protesters wrote on their posters in 2019-2020, referring to Hezbollah. But these are all words, and in practice, this organization continues to dictate its will to them. So one could say that it is not Lebanon that has a trump card in the form of Hezbollah, but that Hezbollah disposes of Lebanon as its own property.

And yet, given Hezbollah's small popularity, the party is trying to rule Lebanon through large coalitions of different forces. And it would be dangerous for it to completely ignore public opinion.

Theoretically, Hezbollah could try to oppose Israel. But it is doubtful that in the current circumstances this would enhance its credibility. There have already been cases where the population of Lebanese villages reacted very nervously to the appearance of Hezbollah fighters and tried to kick them out for fear that they would shoot at Israel and retaliate against the population of those areas. For example, the Druze drove the party's fighters out of their villages. And Hezbollah people are well aware of this.

In addition, as Hezbollah integrates into the political system and economy, corruption within the organization grows. Hezbollah ministers and their associates run various ministries and agencies. They are, as they say, clinging to the financial flows, and this has a strong influence on the worldview.

As a result, an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is not beneficial for either party at the moment. But it cannot be completely ruled out, especially if it is seen as part of the Iran-Israel armed confrontation.

Caliber.Az