"After joining NATO and in case of war, nuclear strikes could be launched on Finland" Caliber.Az interview with Russian military expert Vladislav Shurigin

Russia's war with Ukraine has significantly accelerated the adoption of serious political decisions in the Western countries aimed at deterring Moscow. These included arms supplies to Ukraine, an impressive package of economic sanctions against Russia, and the imminent NATO membership of two hitherto neutral Scandinavian states, Finland and Sweden, which raised the expected concern and displeasure of Moscow.

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and President Sauli Niinistö has recently announced at a press conference held at the presidential palace in Helsinki that Finland had officially applied to join NATO.

In Moscow, the Finnish government's decision is regarded as an unfriendly step taken within the framework of NATO policy towards Russia. Earlier, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Finland's NATO membership would entail Russia's elaboration of security measures. According to Peskov, Moscow's practical actions in response to Finland's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance will depend on the degree of advancement of the bloc's military infrastructure to the country's borders.

Russian military expert Vladislav Shurigin shared his views about what measures Russia will take, as well as the possible threats posed by NATO expansion, in an interview with a Caliber.Az journalist.

Karelian direction

The Russian expert said that, according to Dmitry Peskov's statement, Moscow implies a review of Russia's security in the direction of Finland.

"Until then, the border with Finland was de facto and de jure regarded as the border of a neutral state. We did not concentrate or deploy large military forces there. Apart from the border units and a few units that were there as an operational area, there was nothing there. Indeed, we assumed the probability of Finland's joining NATO before. Because Finland and Sweden said repeatedly back in the 1980s that if the security situation deteriorated they would come under NATO control. Therefore, Russia did not rule out such a scenario of events, but at the same time did not build up a special military grouping on the Russian-Finnish border. But now, under the present circumstances, Russia will introduce additional military forces in the Karelian direction.

It will not be difficult for us to cover and create a defence area there. There is something worse. According to our doctrine and the documents we signed in due time, first the Soviet Union and then Russia pledged not to use nuclear weapons against third countries that do not possess these weapons. If Finland joins NATO and, accordingly, becomes part of this military alliance, then according to the treaty of the bloc, nuclear weapons, at least tactical ones, can appear on the territory of the country. That is, American bombers with atomic bombs will land on Finnish airfields. Even theoretically, the appearance of nuclear weapons on Finnish territory implies an adequate response from Russia. Therefore, I do not really understand the Finns with their desire to be in an alliance, membership in which promises them such a prospect," the military analyst said.

The process is underway...

"Finland was not threatened by Russia at all. Traditionally, for the last 80 years, Russia has respected and understood Finland's sovereignty and valued it as a neutral country. Through Finland, it was possible not only to successfully trade and develop economic ties, but also to solve many political problems and tasks that the neutral status of the country allows.

Let me remind you of the basic document: the famous Helsinki Act, which was signed when Finland was neutral. There would be no Act if it wasn't a neutral country. I believe that over the last three months there has been a huge information attack on the consciousness of the Finnish population, during which they were led to believe that Russia threatens Finland and that they should immediately flee to NATO. According to Finnish population surveys, the mood in Finland has changed dramatically, with more than 70 per cent of citizens supporting Finland's accession to NATO. Of course, the Finnish political establishment took advantage of the public's willingness to be oriented toward the United States and set this wheel in motion. Unfortunately, it is impossible to stop this wheel, and Finns will soon become aware of the consequences of these decisions," the expert said.

Real risks and threats

"After joining NATO, in case of any large-scale conflict, nuclear strikes could be launched on the territory of Finland and Sweden.

NATO is a bloc, obliged by statute to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of a member of the military alliance if necessary. For example, in Europe, there are stockpiles of U.S. nuclear weapons and free-falling atomic bombs. They are now on the territory of Germany, but during exercises, they are moved to the territory of Italy, and Spain. American bombers fly into these countries and train local pilots. So if nuclear bombs end up on the territory of Sweden or Finland during the threat period or in the course of military operations after they join NATO, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will retaliate against them. That is, in fact, Finland and Sweden themselves are getting into the nuclear trap," the expert believes.

Moscow's miscalculations

According to Shurigin, the situation in Ukraine became a catalyst for serious geopolitical events and completely blew up the entire information and propaganda space around the world.

"However, one must understand that the war in Ukraine was inevitable. Russia's strategic mistake is that it has not dealt with Ukraine at all for 25 years. Moscow viewed Ukraine as its inactive "appendix", in which nothing happens, believing that traditional ties with it are stronger than any other factor. Russia would very much like to avoid this war, I judge this from our policy of the last 8 years. After the active part of the fighting in Donbass was over in 2015 and the Minsk agreements were concluded, we had hoped for a long time that these agreements would begin to work. But they never did.

During this time, Ukraine has been preparing for war. As an independent military expert, I believe that there were no options for us to avoid this war other than to completely surrender the interests that we have been defending all these years. The only option to avoid the war could have been Russia's withdrawal from Donbass, the return of Crimea to Ukraine, and the subsequent payment of a contribution," the expert said.

In his opinion, the U.S. initially prepared Ukraine to clash with Russia.

"This plan worked. For the last 3-4 years, American bases were already on Ukrainian territory. They were placed de facto near Lviv. During the same years the training of Ukrainian units was in full swing, up to 1,500 American, British, Polish and other NATO instructors were working in Ukraine. Bases were built in Ochakov, in Mariupol, near Poltava. In short, Ukraine was being actively adjusted by NATO," the Russian military expert concluded.