What "Brussels get-together" bodes
Exclusive by Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  03 April 2024 - 19:37

According to reliable sources, Nikol Pashinyan's April 5 meeting with Ursula von der Leyen and Antony Blinken in Brussels is expected to approve a plan of political, economic, military, and humanitarian assistance to Yerevan to initiate Armenia's integration into the Euro-Atlantic space. Among other things, it is expected to agree on security cooperation unprecedented for the CIS countries.

Thus, in the sphere of cooperation in cyberspace, the sides plan to launch the format of the US-Armenia and EU-Armenia cyber-dialogue. This format will also become a platform for regular consultations on cyber threats and critical infrastructure protection issues. Yerevan, with the help of Western partners, intends to strengthen the capabilities of rapid response teams to computer incidents. This step may actually lead to the transfer of control over Armenia's Internet and IT infrastructure to its Western partners. At the same time, in the fight against hybrid and cyber threats, Europeans will offer Yerevan cooperation with the European Operational Working Group on Strategic Communications - STRATCOM.

In the energy security sector, Washington and Brussels intend to help Armenia decommission the Metsamor NPP after the end of its operation. At the meeting, Yerevan will be promised the provision of technology, equipment and financial resources from the EU and the US for the construction of a new nuclear power plant. In addition, the Pashinyan government is interested in installing energy storage facilities and modular nuclear reactors in Armenia.

It should be noted that since the end of last year, consultations have already been underway between Armenia and the US on the conclusion of a framework agreement on nuclear energy - the so-called Agreement 123. The US and the EU also plan to support Armenia's transition to "green" energy per the provisions of the Paris Agreement and provide assistance in the development of renewable energy by investing in the construction of solar and hydroelectric power plants. All of this points to the realization of an aid plan for Armenia, which is preparing for an energy blockade by Russia in response to Yerevan's betrayal.

One of the key elements of European support to Yerevan will be the inclusion of the Armenian initiative Crossroads of Peace in the EU's Global Gateway strategy, which is part of the EU's trade policy to promote trade and investment on a global scale and implies investments in infrastructure development and green energy projects. For these purposes, the EU is ready to allocate 20m euros in one lump sum at the initial stage.

Notably, the US and EU commit to supporting Armenia's inclusion in regional economic and infrastructure initiatives, such as the Black Sea Submarine Transmission Line and Black Sea Broadband Network projects. In addition, the EU and Armenia intend to launch a dialogue on visa liberalization and start negotiations on a Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement as soon as possible.

A landmark achievement of the Brussels meeting will be the allocation of additional financial resources by the United States and the European Union to provide budgetary support to Armenia to enable Yerevan to cope with the economic and social consequences in the event of Russia's restrictive measures. In particular, the Western partners intend to ensure Armenia's unimpeded access to essential goods and services, as well as strategic consumer products, in addition to supporting the Armenian government's efforts to mitigate the risks of low liquidity and high inflation. To improve Armenia's financial stability, it is envisaged to discuss options for emergency cancellation of Yerevan's external debt or restructuring.

In case of force majeure in the traditional markets, the EU plans to consider provisions on quotas for Armenia's agricultural products, similar to Ukraine. At the same time, the US and the EU are ready to help Armenia create strategic fuel reserves to ensure energy supply in case of crises. It is planned to create a special aid fund for the implementation of the energy efficiency program through the modernization of Armenian power grids and the application of energy-saving technologies. In addition, an agreement is expected to be reached to help Armenia diversify energy supplies and reduce dependence on Russia.

In this way, a plan to transfer Armenia to the contentment of the West, similar to the one that was implemented in Georgia after the Rose Revolution, will be activated.

However, the plans for military cooperation and assistance to Armenia by the US and EU, including the transfer of advanced military technologies and weapons systems, an increase in the number of training programs for the Armenian military, and joint exercises, are of the greatest interest. In particular, to meet Armenia's military needs, the EU is committed to utilizing the European Peace Facility, which is currently the key instrument for financing Ukraine's military support in its war with Russia.

Following the meeting, a plan will be agreed upon to provide the Armenian army with advanced military equipment and technology under the US Foreign Military Financing program. At the initial stage, the US plans to supply Armenia with modern anti-drone and air defense systems. Through the US International Military Education and Training program, the US will plan measures to train and improve the qualifications of Armenian servicemen in American military educational institutions. Americans promise to help in the sphere of professional training of the Armenian army's non-commissioned officers. In addition, the number of joint US-Armenian exercises is expected to increase to improve the level of combat capability and interoperability of Armenian military units with the US Armed Forces.

In the future, the US will also train Armenian special operations forces, in particular, the special unit of the National Security Service of Armenia, allegedly created to organize the protection of international communications passing through the country's territory. Plans to establish close cooperation between the Armenian special service and Western partners can also be traced in the planned dialog between Frontex (European Border and Coast Guard Agency of the EU) and Armenian border guards, which are part of the Armenian National Security Service. At the same time, it is expected that Brussels and Yerevan will consolidate their joint efforts to ensure the long-term functioning and empowerment of the EU Mission to Armenia.

It should be noted that following the summit, the sides will start working on upgrading the US-Armenia bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, as well as accelerate the adoption of a new expanded EU-Armenia cooperation program. In this vein, Brussels and Yerevan plan to launch regular consultations on security and defense.

According to Intelligence Online, a media resource close to the French intelligence service, the Pentagon has already launched plans to provide military assistance to Yerevan through private military companies. In particular, according to the publication, the Virginia-based Culmen International Group, a subcontractor of the US Defense Department, is already working on bringing Armenia's military infrastructure in line with NATO standards.

This company advises the Armenian Defense Ministry on strategic planning and support, arms procurement, and the creation of logistics supply chains. The company is tasked with ensuring the transition of the Armenian army from the Soviet model to Western standards. This is a repetition of the scenario embodied by the West in Ukraine, where the Pentagon-affiliated PMCs were initially deployed to train the Ukrainian army.

In this way Armenia is being Ukrainianized - a dangerous game that can lead to a disruption of the balance in the region and will definitely provoke a harsh reaction from Moscow and Tehran, as well as Baku and Ankara, which are closely watching what is happening and will lead to the creation of new dividing lines in the South Caucasus.

Caliber.Az