Pashinyan's dreams of West face harsh reality
Moscow does not trust crocodile tears

ANALYTICS  09 September 2022 - 18:05

In November last year, at the next meeting of the Armenian radicals in Yerevan, one of the members of "Sasna Tsrer" Vahe Gasparyan, who didn't hide his antipathy to Moscow, called Armenia a "bargaining chip of Russia" and finished his emotional speech with the words of Mikhail Lermontov: "Farewell, farewell, unwashed Russia..." Pashinyan himself does not quote Lermontov in reference to Russia, but he tries not to miss Euro-oriented gatherings. On May 20 this year, Pashinyan, members of the Armenian government, and government lawmakers took an active part in the "Armenian Democracy" forum organized by the notorious Freedom House. Remarkably, representatives of the pro-Russian opposition were not allowed in.

Less than a year has passed since Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, armed with his lousy Russian, goes to Vladivostok to make a vis-a-vis confession of loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian prime minister's solemn declaration of eternal "love" for everything Russian passed with flying colours and applause.

In essence, both the radicals and the Armenian authorities cherish the same dream - to please the West, they just express it in different ways. The former may be narrow–minded, but they are straightforward because they have nothing to lose except terrorist ideology, which today you can't go far - at most to the Middle East or neighboring Iran. The latter, on the contrary, are more cowardly, but also more cunning, which corresponds to the instinct of self-preservation - they have something to lose. Moreover, unlike "Sasna Tsrer," Armenian authorities clearly understand that Western values will only be in their dreams for a long time; although their glitter sometimes makes Pashinyan lose his composure and he forgets that his dignity, including financial, is in the grip of Russian conjuncture. But after the clamps start to tighten, the Armenian leader and his team come out of the trance and shout in falsetto: "God Save the Tsar!" This, incidentally, is what Pashinyan's final solo, "Hail, Russia!" from the stage of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, is about. However, while there is nothing remarkable in the main ode to Russia, Pashinyan's mention of Türkiye and Azerbaijan in his speech speaks to the geopolitical situation around Karabakh, which is clearly in favour of Azerbaijan.

"The conversation with Türkiye has started, we hope to establish relations between our countries with Russia's support. There is an intensive conversation with Azerbaijan about the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. And in this context, we also hope for the support of Russia - not only as a strategic ally of Armenia but also as a close partner of Azerbaijan. This opens opportunities," Pashinyan said stressing Russia's role as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is "engaged in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem".

It is clear that rapprochement with Türkiye and "the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem", in other words, the signing of a peace agreement, is a priority in Armenian-Russian relations or even a trigger that sets the above-mentioned clamps to tighten. The statement by the Russian and Armenian foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Ararat Mirzoyan, at their meeting in Moscow on September 5, also points to this. So Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Vladivostok will have not only economic but also serious political significance. Even in terrible Russian, Pashinyan's speech looked like a report to the host that everything was going according to plan.

Meanwhile, while Yerevan's geopolitical dependence on Moscow is more situational and volatile, Russia's economic influence is long-term and fundamental. It is no secret that Russian money controls the strategic spheres of Armenia. Capital from the north controls the energy sector, the infrastructure sector, transport, power grids, satellite communications, and much more. In fact, Russian finance stands in opposition to Western infusions, which, through diaspora channels, are trying to colonise Armenia. But the scale is clearly not comparable.

After the collapse of the USSR, Armenia, among other countries, received a powerful blow to its economy, but unlike its neighbours, it is still unable to recover, although more than 30 years have passed. This is not surprising, since Armenia cannot make money from gas and oil transit, and no transit pipelines or highways pass through its territory. Armenia has no access to the sea, hence no opportunity, like Georgia, Estonia or Latvia, to benefit from seaports.

The Armenians themselves put it down to a lack of resources, but the absence of oil and gas did not prevent Georgia, for example, from raising its economy to a qualitatively new level. And by the way, the availability of energy resources does not guarantee economic prosperity. History is replete with examples when a country's natural resources caused internal strife and resulted in a loss of independence. In reality, the cause of Armenia's economic backwardness is a suicidal desire of Armenians to see their country stretch "from sea to sea" and a sick fantasy of a "greater Armenia". While Georgia has participated with Azerbaijan and Türkiye in transport and logistics projects such as Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, Yerevan has made anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani statements, while forgetting that two of its four borders are blocked by those countries precisely because of such rhetoric. Characteristically, this factor also means for Armenia that all its roads lead to Russia and increase its influence. Communication with Iran in the south is difficult because of the high mountains, in fact, the only exit in the north is via Georgia to Russia. The Upper Lars border crossing is Armenia's only land access to Russia, and there are constant delays due to weather conditions or a conflict situation between Moscow and Tbilisi. Nevertheless, for Yerevan, this is the "window" from which fresh air comes. So the country is forced to publicly acknowledge the Kremlin's role in creating the Armenian agenda.

Farhad Mammadov, a political analyst and director of the South Caucasus Research Centre, holds precisely this view. He writes on his Telegram channel that Pashinyan's statement at the forum is "a confirmation of the recognition of Russia's special role in Armenia's security and economic development". That is to say, "we are nobody without Russia", and the fact that the Armenian prime minister "has also attached Russia's role to the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations, although the Armenian-Turkish format does not involve Russia" suggests that "the Russian leadership needs to hear Pashinyan's declaration of loyalty."

In a word, Armenia, which is dependent on Russian finance and plays the role of an outpost of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus, regardless of the growth of money transfers from Russia and other situational factors, has been dancing to the Russian balalaika for 30 years already. The only difference is that today it is in tune with the Azerbaijani tar.

Caliber.Az