"United States' main task is to force Russia out of Armenia"
Vladimir Kireyev in touch with Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  21 September 2022 - 15:52

Caliber.Az presents an interview with the head of the analytical department of the International Eurasian Movement, Russian political scientist Vladimir Kireyev.

- How do you assess American diplomat Nancy Pelosi's visit to Yerevan from the viewpoint of Armenian-Russian relations?

- Pelosi is an iconic figure in American politics, and her visit is a signal to all regional players, primarily Russia. As you know, a significant pro-American lobby in Armenian politics has existed for a long time, but after 2018, a dialogue was openly conducted within and around the government itself about breaking or at least minimising relations with Russia and reorienting towards France and the United States. All this has destroyed and is destroying Russia's trust in Armenia as a long-term partner.

But Türkiye and Azerbaijan are trying to enlist Russia's support on a variety of issues. Although Russia's and Türkiye's interests do not converge in everything, there is some drift in the destruction of trusting relations between Moscow and Yerevan and, on the contrary, the formation of more intensive relations with Baku and Ankara.

- How would you interpret Pelosi's statements on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement? In particular, regarding defence cooperation.

- Pelosi's main task is to squeeze Russia out of Armenia and the region, if possible taking control of Yerevan's policy. At the same time, there is pressure on Türkiye, which, as you know, is a NATO partner. But the further it goes, the more difficult it is for Washington to put pressure on Ankara. A few years ago, even the American curators of the Armenian pro-Western political environment recommended not to break off relations with Russia, since the West, represented by both the United States and France, is not able to ensure Armenia's security. Today, in the process of a growing global conflict, in fact, the initial phase of the Third World War, such issues are gradually receding into the background. The main thing is victory over the enemy, even at the cost of any sacrifice. So Armenia is another bargaining chip in this case, as are Taiwan, Ukraine, the Kurds and many other countries and groups.

- What, in your opinion, will be Moscow's response to Armenia's demonstrative flirtations with the United States and anti-Russian sentiments in Yerevan, calls for withdrawal from the CSTO and so on?

- Russia will strive to maintain relations with Armenia for a number of reasons, both geopolitical and emotionally moral. The need for dialogue with all parties in the region is the key to resolving the issue of peace. At the same time, the Russian leadership is not ready to break off relations with partners unilaterally. It is believed that this is a matter of principle. A dialogue will be held with the Armenian elites, where the risks that threaten Armenia after leaving the CSTO, as well as the economic consequences of the rupture of relations with Russia, will be indicated. These are rational arguments, but they are not very convincing for people who assume that Armenia's problems will be solved by severing relations with Russia and establishing a partnership with the United States.

- Do you think that Moscow can allow Armenia to change its orientation to the West?

- Moscow does not have an unambiguously effective mechanism for influencing Armenian politics both at the level of elites and at the level of society. So Moscow is not capable of preventing the rupture of relations. Armenia for the United States and the West as a whole is only an instrument of foreign policy, the task that is being set is to squeeze Russia out of the region, put pressure on Türkiye and threaten Iran.

Armenia's policy towards the United States and France will lead to the fact that it will be untenable in front of Türkiye and Azerbaijan because the United States will not enter into a direct conflict with its NATO ally, which is very significant in the Middle East, albeit obstinate. In turn, this will become a red line for the Russian Federation, after which it will be pointless to support Armenia. This is a negative scenario for Russia and Iran because their influence in the region will decrease. In this scenario, the interests of Russia and Iran will be dealt a blow, which does not mean that the United States will stand up for the interests of Armenia. Armenia's withdrawal from the agreements with Russia will mean a rupture with Iran and, as I noted, its transformation into a province of Türkiye.

- How clearly do you see the future of Armenia without Russia's support?

- With Armenia's reorientation to the United States and NATO, there will be a direct conflict with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, which will seek to put Armenia under their full control. In turn, Russia will have no mechanism to influence the situation, and Iran will have no motivation to support it. Without Russia and Iran, Armenia will naturally turn not even into a part of the American mirage, but into a Turkish colony, which is considered by many in Armenia as an acceptable solution.

Caliber.Az