“I doubt in Yerevan's political will for resolution of the conflict with Baku”
Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert

INTERVIEWS  13 October 2022 - 17:57

Caliber.Az's interview with Denis Denisov, Director of the Russian Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflict Studies.

- A few days ago in Prague, during the European Political Community summit, Armenia not only recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but also agreed to facilitate the work of the EU civil mission along its border with Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani side agreed to cooperate with this mission exactly to the extent of its relevance. Can these actions of Yerevan be regarded as another step of Yerevan towards the collective West?

- Indeed, yes. The involvement of representatives of the European Union is another attempt to strengthen the security component in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation. Despite the fact that the mission is civilian, in the interpretation this may mean that the presence of Europeans will reduce the level of tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Potential hostilities will be lower than they currently are.

Another thing is the effectiveness of such missions. As the practice of the last decades has shown, the missions of the EU, the UN, the OSCE can hardly be called successful on the whole. If we consider individual conflicts, then there were situations where they showed themselves effectively, but in general, it is not necessary to talk about efficiency. In this case, we also see the process of internationalization of the ongoing conflict, but whether this will be beneficial is also a big question. However, the fact that after this mission the EU will be more actively involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement process is obvious. The question is whether this will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the conflict or, on the contrary, will be a destructive step.

- Can the EU civilian mission on the territory of Armenia develop into a military one after some time?

- It is unlikely that this can happen quickly. In addition, in order for a civilian mission to develop into a military one, the consent of all parties involved in the conflict is necessary. First of all, of course, Azerbaijan and Armenia. As part of peacekeeping and military missions, the consent of all parties that have effective management is always requested. Especially if they control certain combat units in the conflict zone. Therefore, I think that this issue is unlikely to be on the agenda. Moreover, given the bureaucracy of all procedures in the EU, I doubt that this can happen within a short time.

- Does the presence of the European mission in Armenia contradict Russian interests and allied relations with Yerevan?

- As long as the EU mission will have a civil mandate, and not peacekeeping or military, there will be a minimum of direct clashes of interests at the first stage. But of course, they will. However, regarding interests and allied relations with Armenia, we are unlikely to find a document that states that European civilian missions somehow contradict relations between Moscow and Yerevan. But this is de jure and de facto, clear to everyone that the involvement of the EU means the erosion of existing and established formats for the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian events, the EU is trying to play a more significant role in the settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus. However, this does not negate the fact that Russia can also work as actively as possible on these tracks.

- What is your general assessment of the results of the meetings on the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement that took place in Prague on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit? Will Armenia finally move from words to deeds?

- In this issue, the key aspect is the presence of a political will. The interest of the parties in continuing the negotiation processes, including at completely different venues, is understandable. The implementation of the tripartite statement of November 10, 2020, is important for Azerbaijan. In principle, this is acceptable and is consistent with the resolutions adopted within the UN.

However, Armenia has a slightly different situation. There are serious problems associated with military-technical equipment and incompatibility with the Azerbaijani army.

The second point is the constant political turbulence. By this transition to other formats, the Armenian leadership is trying to minimize Baku's possible attempts to resolve the conflict by force. However, according to observations, this can give a minimal and short-term effect. A comprehensive settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani issue requires the political will of the Armenian leadership, but there are serious doubts about its presence. The absence of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which was held in Samarkand, was very symbolic. It was attended by the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, but he was not there. At the same time, Pashinyan is trying to actively promote tracks with the participation of the US and the EU, which is a serious strategic mistake in the context of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.

Caliber.Az