Azerbaijani expert: Yerevan will overanalyze, but will still sign peace agreement with Baku

ANALYTICS  13 October 2022 - 15:56

Negotiations in connection with the preparation of the text of the peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, although they received an effective impetus, according to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, they continue in a very difficult time. The Armenian side does not stop provocations at the border, and the Yerevan political elite arranges verbal provocations, calling for the Karabakh issue to be removed from the future peace agreement. The situation is tense to the limit, although there is clear progress - on October 14, a new meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia will take place in Astana, on the agenda of which, apparently, the draft Azerbaijani-Armenian document on peace will also be put on the agenda. But what will happen next, will Azerbaijan finally be able to force Yerevan to sign the most important agreement for the entire region?

So far, in any case, there is no need to look closely: a wasp swarm of Armenian politicians is buzzing hysterically after the Prague agreements, trying to disrupt the process of negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia or distort the text of the peace treaty with some chauvinist-populist amendment. Nevertheless, everything inexorably develops in the spirit of the well-known saying "Dogs bark, the caravan moves on." The planned trilateral meeting in Astana of the foreign ministers of three countries: Azerbaijan - Jeyhun Bayramov, Russia - Sergei Lavrov and Armenia - Ararat Mirzoyan, is obviously aimed at continuing substantive work on this document.

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu added food for thought for the public in the region, who said that Azerbaijan and Armenia had already reached agreements on the fundamental points of the peace treaty. “Agreement has been reached on the fundamental points - there were five of them. This includes the recognition of each other's territorial integrity, the demarcation of borders, and so on. It remains only to implement them,” Cavusoglu stressed in an interview with TVNET. According to him, the process of normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan and the preparation of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan cannot proceed separately from each other.

It must be said that the Armenian Foreign Ministry reacted to the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister without the usual tricks or evasiveness, noting that negotiations with Azerbaijan are ongoing, but after the statement following the meeting in Prague, there are “no other developments” on this issue.

But who would be surprised, because the Armenian Foreign Ministry is known for its persistent unwillingness to share information with the public if it is at least some positive for the Azerbaijani side.

So, can we expect a breakthrough at the meeting in Astana, will the course of negotiations stall as a result of some other provocation by Armenians on the border, as happened in September, how realistic are the prospects for concluding a peace treaty shortly?

According to Azerbaijani Parliament MP, political scientist Rasim Musabayov, expressed by him in a conversation with Caliber.Az, one should not expect any global breakthroughs in Astana. However, work on a peace treaty, Musabeyov believes, will undoubtedly continue in the context of this meeting.

“Surely in Astana, a concrete signal will be given to the negotiating teams to start working on the text of the agreement. At the same time, the date and place of the meeting of the working groups of the two sides will be announced,” Musabeyov believes.

The dynamics of the work, the deputy notes, today is being spurred on by a certain common requirement, the directive of the United States, the European Union and, of course, Azerbaijan, aimed at ensuring that a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan is concluded no later than November-December this year.

“And if the Russian side joins this demand, then the peace agreement can certainly be signed without delay. Another thing is that the Armenians would not have been Armenians if they had not started to play around. Even though Pashinyan has a constitutional majority in parliament, I am almost sure that the Armenians in parliament will also blur the ratification of this agreement, trying, if not to change, then at least add some of their comments to it. Similar toxic red tape should be expected when considering the treaty in the Armenian Constitutional Court.

Paper, a peace document, of course, is important, but the main thing is the power behind this document. And the force belongs to Azerbaijan,” Musabeyov emphasizes.

Political scientist and diplomat Fikrat Sadikhov also has no doubts about new delays with the signing. As he told Caliber.az, Armenia is not a country that can agree on all issues at once. It is well known how Pashinyan disavowed the agreements reached at previous meetings. The Armenian prime minister, according to Sadikhov, "generally showed himself not as a stable politician."

Nevertheless, according to the diplomat, Prague should be viewed as a new stage of negotiations, in which the leading players in world politics took part. In addition to EU President Charles Michel, French President Macron was also present, who sympathizes with Armenia and does not hide it.

“And even they did not question the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in Prague. And the issue of Karabakh and “status” was not raised at all. This is an important positive indicator of the success of Azerbaijani diplomacy,” Sadikhov is sure.
In any case, he believes, another step towards peace, a peace agreement and the signing of this document was taken at the Prague summit. And it is clear that the key, important points of the upcoming agreement will be discussed at a meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries.

“I think there is a chance that this time the ministers of the two countries will work out some outlines of the upcoming document. Of course, there will be difficulties, no doubt, there will be problems on the Armenian side, including those of an artificial nature. But at the same time, I do not doubt that the Azerbaijani side will use its entire arsenal of diplomatic and military means to force Armenia to peace. And, in fact, our offensive diplomatic steps and our foreign policy priorities, as well as the results of the Prague summit, should force Pashinyan to sign this document. Moreover, all its points meet the interests of Armenia itself,” the political scientist added.

Caliber.Az