Peace in region: what prevents Armenia from advancing in this direction?
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  14 October 2022 - 15:25

Armenia's desire to seek solutions to its security problems abroad has recently become obvious to everybody. Yerevan is either appealing to France or the US, let alone Russia which it used to view as such a guarantor for decades. Why does this continue in the new circumstances? Wouldn't it be easier to try to conclude a comprehensive peace with Baku, normalise relations with Türkiye, and live normally? All the more so because they are immediate neighbours, not distant friends, and will have to coexist with them one way or another.

Well-known foreign experts - Alexander Rahr, professor of the WeltTrends Institute for International Policy (Potsdam, Germany), Anatoly Pinchuk, head of the board of the East European Security Institute (Kyiv), and Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of St. Petersburg State University, shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

"I can only confirm from the experience of post-war Germany that the main diplomacy of a country, big and even smaller, should focus on reconciliation and skillful coexistence with its immediate neighbours.

Relying only on the 'protection' of strong external powers is fraught with the risk of losing one's sovereignty. The example of post-war Germany is relevant here, which went to great lengths to negotiate peaceful coexistence with France, Poland, and the Benelux countries. This helped Germany to integrate into the new European order," Rahr underlined.

Anatoly Pinchuk noted, in his turn, that ethnically-based territorial conflicts are the most complicated ones. Their resolution is possible only on the basis of honest negotiations.

"As far as I understand, the Armenian leadership feels its weakness, both concerning the right to territory, and concerning its own forces, including military ones. Hence the desire to find a guarantor. But if there is any logic in having France as a guarantor, Russia is simply using Armenians for its own selfish purposes," the Ukrainian analyst said.

Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, said that he sees two motives guiding Armenia's behaviour.

"First, the delay in solving the most important problem for the country's security (an agreement with Azerbaijan and the end of the conflict in the international legal field) is caused by the inertia of a conflict that has lasted more than 30 years. Armenian public opinion perceives any step towards peace as a concession to Azerbaijan, so such steps are rarely taken and are often followed by retreat or a long pause.

Secondly, by turning to various mediators and potential 'helpers', Armenia is laying the foundations for its multi-vector diplomacy in the future. All small states on the planet that protect their sovereignty act in this way.

Until recently, Armenia relied solely on Russia for security. But this policy, while providing it with some kind of stability, has made Yerevan completely dependent on Russia's turbulent and at times conflicting domestic and international policies. Even if today Yerevan's attempts to approach Brussels, Paris, and Washington look chaotic, they fit into a strategy of diversifying ties and forming a wider and more stable 'circle of friends'," Tkachenko said.

Samir Ibrahimov

Caliber.Az