Yerevan will have to accept new regional realities
Afterword to three leaders' Sochi meeting

ANALYTICS  02 November 2022 - 12:38

The recent meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian, and Armenian leaders, Ilham Aliyev, Vladimir Putin, and Nikol Pashinyan, held in Sochi at Moscow's initiative, has confirmed Baku's advantage in the fundamentally important issues of settling relations with Yerevan.

This is confirmed by the parties' new final statement, which fully reflects Azerbaijan's position. And this is a key moment for Baku: three parties - Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia - have signed a document of critical importance to the regional countries. And its text makes no mention of Karabakh's "status". However, there is not a single word about Karabakh itself, implying that the region is unconditionally recognised as Azerbaijan's territory and that everything related to it is an internal affair of the country. As stated by Aliyev during his meeting with Putin. This is the joint statement's first major emphasis, followed by a discussion of Azerbaijan's and Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The document emphasizes that "the negotiators agreed to refrain from the use of force or the threat of its use, to discuss and resolve all problematic issues solely on the basis of mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders in accordance with the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991". This fully corresponds to Azerbaijan's position and requirements. That is, the principle of territorial integrity, sovereignty and inviolability of borders is exactly what Baku has been insisting and insisting on and what Armenia has been avoiding all this time. However, one way or another, Yerevan will have to come to terms with this unpleasant reality for it.

According to the document, "the negotiators agreed to refrain from using or threatening to use force, to discuss and resolve all problematic issues solely on the basis of mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and border inviolability in accordance with the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991." This perfectly matches Azerbaijan's position and requirements. That is, the principle of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and border inviolability is precisely what Baku has been insisting on and what Armenia has been avoiding all along. However, Yerevan will have to come to terms with this unpleasant reality one way or another.

By the way, Armenia has repeatedly failed on this and many other controversial issues, including at European negotiating platforms. It is enough to recall the results of the third meeting of Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels with the participation of [EU Council President] Charles Michel. Then it was the president of the European Council, instead of the phrase "Nagorno-Karabakh" familiar to the West, who called the region Karabakh, as required by official Baku, actually recognising the territorial affiliation of Karabakh, including Khankandi, to Azerbaijan. And it was not by chance at all - later, at the fourth meeting in Brussels, there was no mention of the Karabakh issue, although Armenia unsuccessfully pushed it through the negotiations. That is, the trend has taken a natural character.

The bilateral meeting between Aliyev and Putin was no less significant, where the Azerbaijani leader confirmed Baku's unshakable position in settling relations with Yerevan.

"Azerbaijan has recently put forward five basic principles on which relations with Armenia should be normalised. These are fundamental principles of international law, and I think that normalisation can be achieved on this basis... The Karabakh conflict is already history, it was resolved two years ago, so there is practically nothing to discuss in this context. And the normalisation of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations is a format that requires, of course, very serious steps," Ilham Aliyev said.

This most important message of the Azerbaijani president was, of course, addressed not only to Armenia but also to all interested parties - mediators of the negotiation process - Russia and Europe. Thus, Ilham Aliyev actually made it clear that two years ago Baku turned the page on the almost 30-year conflict and that there is no point in returning to this issue. Therefore, in full accordance with the logic of events, following the results of the Sochi meeting, a statement was signed on the normalisation of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and not the "Karabakh conflict" at all.

As for Armenia's diplomatic miscalculations in Sochi, according to informed sources, there were not one or two of them. This is also indicated by the results of the Russian negotiation platform.

Firstly, Pashinyan failed to push a paragraph into the final statement indicating that Azerbaijan allegedly "invaded" the "sovereign territory of Armenia" in May 2021, and therefore it is necessary to restore the status quo. Secondly, the final statement again did not mention the events of September 12-13, in which Armenia accuses Azerbaijan, of traditionally arranging provocations and incidents on the conditional border itself. And the fact that there is not even a hint of resuscitation of the topic of the "status of Karabakh" in the final statement shatters Armenians' last illusions about this region.

In general, the Sochi summit, against the background of the activation of the European flank in the negotiation process, showed that Moscow is still managing to be one of the moderators in the settlement of Baku-Yerevan relations and that it will continue to try to maintain itself in this capacity.

At the same time, a number of important meetings of the foreign ministers and expert groups on the peace treaty in Brussels will take place this month. And how effective the Sochi negotiation platform was will become clear from the results of the upcoming meetings.

In an interview with Caliber.Az, the leading expert of the Russian International Affairs Council, Alexei Naumov, commented on the Sochi meeting outcomes and said that when the difficult and long process of concluding a peace agreement comes to the finish line, specific formulations become very important.

"And it seems to me that the key thing here is that we did not see the word 'status' in the Sochi document. Indeed, as the Azerbaijani president noted, the issue has been resolved, and it makes no sense to discuss it for a long time and now. I think it is important that the positive role of the Russian peacekeeping contingent temporarily stationed in Karabakh was noted, and it was stated that Russia will continue efforts to establish relations between the parties. That is, the West's attempt to take advantage of the situation in Ukraine and displace Russia, a country directly involved in the settlement and closely familiar historically and culturally with both sides of the conflict, was not crowned with success.

If we talk about which side received more attention, it is enough to analyse how much time President Putin spent in a conversation with the Armenian leader, in a meeting with the two leaders at the same time and in a conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Everything is obvious here. As for the question of whether the Sochi meeting will bring the signing of a peace treaty by the parties closer, I think final conclusions can be drawn after the Brussels meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. It will be seen there. If the Brussels agreement is more concrete and moves the issue of a peaceful settlement faster, then the Sochi meeting, as we understand, was not the most successful. If not, then we note the return of negotiations to the Russian platform and the approach to peace through the mediation of the party that is directly involved in this conflict and, as President Putin rightly noted, "understands the parties involved in these negotiations much better", Alexei Naumov said.

Caliber.Az