CSTO’s Yerevan meeting not to cause breakthrough
Moscow’s dying dreams

ANALYTICS  22 November 2022 - 16:35

On November 22, Armenia will host the next summit of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) with the attendance of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The high-level event comes at an uncertain time for Armenia, which is highly critical of the organization’s role in ensuring the security of member states. Hence, numerous sources reported ahead of the summit that Armenia seeks ways to terminate its membership in the CSTO and to turn to the West for security partnership and guarantees against Azerbaijan.

When the war in Karabakh erupted in 2020, resulting in Azerbaijan’s military victory, Armenia appealed to the CSTO to intervene militarily, albeit unsuccessfully. Due to the fact that the CSTO has no legal means to intervene in internal conflicts of non-member states, all appeals to the military bloc were eventually declined. Indeed, the position of the CSTO led by Russia, the main security patron of Armenia, triggered anger and outrage in Armenia.

Although no tangible steps have been taken until now, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan several times criticized the CSTO for its inability to reach out to member states in case of necessity and did not rule out the option of quitting the bloc. However, with Russia still maintaining a crucial role in the security sector of Armenia and influence within the pro-Russian political groups, leaving the bloc sounds a bit unrealistic.

Also, it is unlikely that Yerevan would terminate its membership in the CSTO while hosting the annual meeting of member states' leaders. On the contrary, the current leaders' meeting and the attendance of Vladimir Putin at it are supposed to give a clear message regarding the deepening partnership between Armenia and Russia. Nevertheless, it is evident that Russia's image as a security partner and military power has downgraded significantly, given its military's poor performance in Ukraine and the quality of defence products that were fatally damaged and destroyed by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Karabakh.

According to the Armenian media, the top agenda of today’s CSTO meeting in Yerevan includes the development of the bloc’s response means to real threats and new military aid for Armenia. Therefore, a new document could be adopted during the meeting in Yerevan in a bid to reincarnate the military bloc and make it more attractive. Last time the tensions between the CSTO and Armenia occurred as a result of September 2022 hostilities on the borderline with Azerbaijan that claimed dozens of lives and fatal injuries on both sides.

Prior to the CSTO summit, Prime Minister Pashinyan proposed his own version of peace resolution with Azerbaijan by returning to the 1991 borders and establishing of borderline to be guarded by border service, not regular army units of warring parties. However, Azerbaijan categorically denied such a plan.

Obviously, the Armenian leadership apprehends the reality that new appeals to the CSTO will not yield significant results, and harsh criticism of the organization during the recent event is inevitable. By exerting more pressure on the CSTO, Yerevan attempts to discredit the block as it sees the chance to decrease Moscow’s influence and seek alternative military support, namely from France, Greece, and the US. However, the actual means of the influence of France and Greece in the South Caucasus region suggest that it is unlikely that Armenia could receive direct military aid from those countries, whereas the US cannot supply Yerevan with necessary weaponry due to the possible diplomatic repercussions with Azerbaijan.

Also, hosting a Russian military base on its soil and close links with Russian security agencies largely neglects the chances of receiving Western military aid for Armenia. In this regard, the criticism of Armenia does not target only Russia, the main sponsor of the CSTO, but also other member states and their unwillingness to support it in critically important times. Ironically, member states like Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan enjoyed cordial relations with Armenia’s arch-rival Azerbaijan for many years. However, the current rapprochement between Central Asian states and Azerbaijan within the framework of the organization of Turkic states (OTS) and in a bilateral format automatically neutralized those countries' activities against Baku within the CSTO.

In the post-war period, Azerbaijan signed a "strategic partnership" document with Kyrgyzstan and a "Strengthening strategic partnership and military alliance" document with Kazakhstan, thus establishing close links with landlocked Central Asia. Moreover, the new cooperation format within the OTS will boost regional trade volumes and increase transportation volumes stretching from Central Asia to the Caucasus via the Caspian Sea.

Hence, during the summit in Yerevan, the stability in the South Caucasus region and recent border hostilities between Baku-Yerevan will definitely be put on the table, though the reality of adopting a new anti-Azerbaijan document is unlikely given the latter's particular relations with certain member states.

For now, the post-war realities in the South Caucasus region shifted the balance of power in favour of Azerbaijan. Although sustainable stability in the region has yet to be achieved, it could be done through the final peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. In this regard, it is doubtful that the Russia-led military bloc could play a positive role in the process and contribute to long-term peace.

Caliber.Az