"If Armenia sees its future in NATO, it will have to negotiate with Türkiye"
Dmitriy Solonnikov on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  08 February 2023 - 15:41

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Director of the Russian Institute of Modern State Development Dmitriy Solonnikov.

- How do you assess the deployment of a long-term EU mission in Armenia and this step's consequences for Yerevan?

- The EU mission in Armenia is a continuation of the purposeful policy of modern Yerevan towards rapprochement with the European Union and the United States and a gradual withdrawal from partnership relations with Russia. Armenia will definitely move towards the Euro-Atlantic space, will no longer be considered part of the Eurasian space and, of course, will stop focusing on the CIS. In principle, this process has already begun and continues step by step. Please note: first a small EU mission visited Armenia, now a long-term one is expected, and then the deployment of NATO military there will follow. Such a scenario is quite likely, because [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan, who came to power thanks to the support of American non-profit organisations and the funding of the Soros Foundation, is unlikely to pursue a different policy that does not suit the US. I think Armenia will move to the West, but at the same time, it will try to get the maximum benefit from relations with Russia, while maintaining economic ties with it. At the same time, political relations between Moscow and Yerevan will cool down and military-technical cooperation will cease altogether.

Pashinyan's participation in the intergovernmental commission of the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union], which was recently held in Almaty, suggests that Armenia will continue to participate in Eurasian projects since it is profitable for it. In general, it will act according to the principle: "We will earn at the expense of Russia, and as for politics, we will move in a different direction." We've already seen what this has resulted in with the example of Kyiv, and now Yerevan is following suit.

- Armenia refused Russia's offer to send CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation] peacekeepers to its territory. Has Moscow drawn conclusions from this for itself?

- It has been stated that Armenia is stopping cooperation within the CSTO framework. On the one hand, Yerevan fears that some of the CSTO countries are more complimentary to Azerbaijan than to Armenia, and this is a pretext for which Armenia suspends its participation in this structure. On the other hand, if Armenia is guided by the European Union and NATO, then it will have to stop participating in a joint military-political bloc with the Russian Federation. She will still be allowed to maintain economic ties for some time. Therefore, Yerevan will not allow CSTO peacekeepers to be deployed on its territory but will attract EU representatives and NATO military personnel there. Moscow and other CSTO members will probably not take any counter-actions.

- Armenia is trying to present itself as a victim, imposing on the world the myth of the blockage of 120,000 Karabakh Armenians because of the Azerbaijani eco-activists' peaceful protest on the Lachin road. Do you agree that this is completely Armenian speculation?

- Everyone understands that the figures presented by Armenia are incorrect. There can be no mention of any 120,000 Armenians in Karabakh. The true number of Armenians who live there has been greatly exaggerated. There will be a few tens of thousands of people there. Because there hasn't been a full-fledged population census in the region in 20 years, all estimates are very rough. At the same time, those who have been living in Yerevan or even abroad for a long time are often given out as "Armenians of Karabakh". However, they get registered as the region's population. But the question is not only in numbers but also that it is necessary to regulate economic activity in Karabakh. You cannot plunder Azerbaijan's national and natural resources, and then go to negotiate, setting your own conditions. If economic activity in Karabakh within the framework of the integration of its entire infrastructure into Azerbaijan is carried out legally, it does not matter which part of the Armenian population wants to integrate into this process. It will be 10,000 or 30,000 people - what's the difference? If these people decide for themselves to integrate into Azerbaijan's peaceful life, then it means that it will be possible to agree on this. Therefore, the question is not in numbers, but in the legal grounds for actions and the consequences of these actions.

- When do you think the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan can resume?

- We should always talk about returning to the negotiation process between Baku and Yerevan. At least because the possibility of negotiations can never be removed. Even Russia, being in a difficult situation on the western borders with Ukraine, assumes the possibility of negotiations. So the negotiation track has a perspective. But the question is where to hold them, who will be a participant and what documents will be on the table as part of these negotiations. I think this is the most important thing for such a process.

- What do you think about Armenian-Turkish normalisation?

- Türkiye stands for normalisation in general and will try to make the process move in this direction. It is important for Ankara to create a transport and logistics corridor with access to the Russian transport space and to the Caspian Sea. Therefore, Türkiye will use relations with Armenia to solve its geo-economic and logistical issues. It is clear that both countries pursue their interests in this regard, so most likely normalisation of relations is inevitable.

At the same time, the settlement of Turkish-Armenian relations is a movement on both sides. If Armenia sees its future within the framework of the European Union and NATO, then it should negotiate with all structures, taking into account the factor of Türkiye's membership in the North Atlantic Bloc. Therefore, for Armenia, the track to the West is also an opportunity to get closer to Türkiye. In other words, the settlement of relations with Türkiye is one of the mandatory conditions for the normalization of relations with NATO and Armenia's involvement in the NATO program. After all, if we talk about Türkiye, it always pursues a multi-vector policy, and above all in the interests of the Turkish people. Nevertheless, Ankara, being a loyal ally of Baku, is always for the settlement of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but at the same time taking into account the interests of Baku and insisting on their implementation.

Caliber.Az