"China will be next after the West pushes Russia to the brink of collapse" Experts share their forecasts with Caliber.Az

The leadership of the People's Republic of China seems to have picked the side in the Russia-Ukraine standoff. In this connection, Beijing started to seriously consider the possibility of transferring unmanned drones and artillery systems to Russia for use in military operations.

CNN and The Wall Street Journal reported about it almost simultaneously, citing informed sources familiar with US intelligence.

The American media outlets are echoed by German Spiegel, which reports on ongoing Russian-Chinese negotiations to supply the first batch of one hundred drones.

CNN notes, however, that China has probably not yet made a final decision. Nevertheless, the channel is convinced that negotiations on price and supply volumes are ongoing. It also claims that US intelligence has obtained information in recent weeks which may indicate that Beijing is leaning in favour of transferring arms to Moscow.

As to the exact scope of China's possible military assistance to Russia, the information circulating in the media varies. Some of them claim that it is mainly small arms and ammunition. Others state that in addition to the delivery of drones, Beijing may consider the transfer of ammunition for "artillery and armed drones".

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken earlier accused China of supplying Russia with non-lethal military aid. He claims Beijing is considering sending weapons to Russia.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, told reporters that if China were to send arms to Russia, it would "change the rules of the game" between Washington and Beijing.

One wonders whether China would dare to support Russia militarily in such a clear-cut way. After all, it would put it in the position of violating the sanctions of the international community. Accordingly, it will also lead to sanctions against itself, which could deal a powerful blow to its economy, which is very dependent on Western consumers. Does China's leadership foresee such risks for its country? Maybe Beijing will not agree to escalate things like this and refuse to help Russia with arms. Is there such a probability?

Well-known foreign experts have shared their views on this issue with Caliber.Az.

Kazakhstan political observer Gaziz Abishev is of the opinion that China is in the process of global negotiations with the US. And the threat to support Russia with weapons is an additional argument in negotiations with the United States on a number of issues: trade barriers, Taiwan, and others. In addition, Beijing views Russia as a shield against full-scale Western interference in China's affairs.

"Therefore, the Chinese would not want a complete defeat for the Russian Federation. I think that there will be no full-fledged assistance similar to that provided by the US to Ukraine. Probably there will be a transfer of some drones, artillery, and ammunition, but they may disguise it as some kind of joint production. In general, it is not necessary to rearm the Russian army, but to fill only a number of positions necessary for stable defence," the expert said.

Volodymyr Fesenko, director of Ukraine's Penta Centre for Political Research and analyst, first of all, noted that one should take into account not only information about possible deliveries of Chinese weapons (or their components) to the Russian Federation but also the official public position of the PRC on the war between Russia and Ukraine.

"After PRC leadership voiced its position in 12 points on February 24, we are talking about official political and ideological attitudes. And it is not a military alliance with Russia, but a call for a peaceful settlement of the war between Russia and Ukraine on appropriate principles. Another thing is that this 'peace plan' has been met with scepticism and even criticism in the West. It is important that China has officially stated its position in this way," the expert said.

At the same time, it should be kept in mind that China does not benefit from an escalation and excessive prolongation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, as it would have a negative impact on international trade and China's economic interests, he says. But China also does not benefit from Moscow's military and political defeat in a war against Ukraine, as it would drastically weaken Russia's position and potential, and increase the influence of the United States. And China views the war between Russia and Ukraine in the context of its confrontation with the United States.

"From this, we can conclude that China will not go for direct and large-scale military support to Russia, as it did not do last year. But unofficial and indirect support - the supply of chips and other electronic components, spare parts, and individual elements of weapons to be assembled in Russia - is possible. Naturally, there will also be supplies of dual-use goods, as well as the purchase of Russian oil and gas and other natural resources. There could also be financial services in the long term. Supplies of weapons components can go through intermediaries, or through little-known firms that do not cooperate with the US and Europe. Sanctions could be imposed on such firms, but they would not be critical to the PRC. Thus, it is highly likely that the PRC's dual policy towards the war between Russia and Ukraine (formal neutrality) will continue in the near future," Fesenko believes.

As Kyrgyz political scientist and regional security expert Mars Sariyev said in his turn, the situation is very tense now, and the question is whether China will supply lethal weapons to Russia.

"That is why even the CIA director said that they have information that China is likely to do so. He made that public for a reason since the States have strong concerns about it. I think the probability of supplying drones, artillery shells, ammunition, etc. to the Russian Federation is very high. China is now trying to push through its peace initiative in this way, which the West and Ukraine have not accepted. Deliveries will greatly change the picture in the theatre of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

Why would Beijing take such an unprecedented step, which could have a very strong impact on the Chinese economy and on the political situation of the country? At the same time, the close economic interdependence between America and China is known, and the latter may decide to supply only as a last resort," the political scientist said.

What factors might be at play here?

"If the West finally pushes Russia to the brink of collapse, then China will inevitably be the second stage in line. Beijing sees the situation close to its western borders deteriorating badly. Its weak point there is Afghanistan. China has now closed its embassy in Kabul. Afghanistan is in chaos, there is infighting within the Taliban; the country is on the verge of civil war. The penetration of militant groups into the countries of Central Asia is not excluded there. According to some reports, some 20,000 armed militants currently stand on Afghanistan's northern borders. Should an invasion occur from there, China would immediately lose its supplies from the region - a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan, and an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan. There are plans to build a railway from China to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and from there to Türkiye and Europe. In fact, the Silk Road is being cut off. Uyghur's Xinjiang will rise following Central Asia and destabilise Tibet and China's inner regions," he said.

That's apparently why Chinese authorities decided to mobilise reservists back on December 30, he said.

"It will last until March 15. That's several million people. Beijing is seriously preparing. That is, they believe that they are in a desperate situation, and if they do not help Russia to reverse the situation so that the theatre of military operations remains only near the borders of Russia and Ukraine, the next stage will be Central Asia. And that will be the second front that the West wants to open up so that Moscow can't handle the two directions.

So I think China, despite all the economic and political risks, will start supplying equipment and weapons to Russia. Although for now there is still a pause," Sariyev concluded.