“Russia will not intervene in event of new war in Karabakh" Dmitry Solonnikov on Caliber.Az

Interview with Caliber.Az with the director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary State Development, Dmitry Solonnikov.

- In view of Armenia’s latest armed provocations on the conventional border, how much do you think the likelihood of a new war in the South Caucasus has increased?

- Unfortunately, the possibility of war is always there, and if we are talking about the South Caucasus, then yes, it remains, and that is why the parties are one way or another preparing for such a scenario due to the principle “if you want peace, prepare for war”. In general, preparation for war is in many ways a factor that restrains it and even stabilizes the world. I think that now the situation in the South Caucasus is balancing on this brink.

However, soberly assessing the current situation, neither side will probably fail right now at the peak of the war. There is an understanding that this is the last chance, when all other methods have been tried and one can try to alter the situation militarily. However, neither side has yet approached such a milestone. We see that the Armenian prime minister makes personnel decisions, but they clearly do not want to fall into a new war, and are not ready.

It’s another matter if at some point, again due to provocations, the situation gets out of control. The fact is that at this moment it is important for Armenia to maintain some kind of external umbrella over itself, which ensures its security. And the guarantee of its security is now the CSTO, so Armenia will not leave this organization until it is one hundred percent sure of the NATO guarantee.

I believe that in this case, the scenario could be as follows: first, Armenia carries out complete rearmament under NATO standards, concludes all agreements with this military alliance on cooperation and submits an application there. And only when it is accepted into NATO, it will leave the CSTO. So Pashinyan will try very hard to ensure that there is no time gap between the CSTO and the NATO umbrellas.

- The fact that Armenia will one day become part of NATO can only be discussed hypothetically. Nevertheless, do you believe that it is precisely for this reason that Yerevan is betting on open confrontation with Russia, blackmailing it with a turn to the West?

- The question is not even that Armenia is making a move towards the West, blackmailing Russia. In fact, it is not Armenia that needs this, but its current leadership, since Pashinyan was appointed leader for this reason. The political coup in Armenia, as a result of which he came to power, was organized by the United States through the media and NGOs it financed, the Soros Foundation and other American sources.

In essence, Pashinyan is now implementing a contract, a program, a scenario, whatever you want to call it, in exchange for his political future and financial well-being. That is, it aims to take the country out of the Eurasian contour and into a pro-American one. He has no other options. In parallel, Armenia today is using integration opportunities within the EAEU and CSTO in order to pay for the transition to the western flank through funding and support from these structures.

- Is there now a possibility of a change of power in Armenia, given the activation of revanchists and the Karabakh clan?

- There is always a danger of a violent change of power in Armenia. Pashinyan himself came to power in exactly this way. That is why Pashinyan closely monitors the internal political situation, periodically carrying out personnel shake-ups at the Defence Ministry and the National Security Service, maneuvering very carefully so as not to be thrown out of office.

- How will Russia behave in the event of a new war in the region? Will it provide military support to Armenia?

- This is a very hypothetical question, because we do not know when this war will happen and whether it will happen at all, what external conditions will be at that time, what the status of relations between Russia and Armenia will be. If, let’s say, Armenia had already left the CSTO by the beginning of the war, then why would Russia be scared to fight for it? Otherwise, if Armenia remains part of the CSTO, then all obligations within the framework of this organization on the part of the Russian Federation will be fulfilled. Let’s assume that military operations will be carried out on the territory of Armenia and aggression will be carried out against it by some state.

Then Russia will begin to take measures to protect the security and sovereignty of its ally within the CSTO. This agreement is still in effect today. Despite the fact that Armenia has not participated in CSTO events for two years now and has withdrawn its representative from this organization, formally its status in this military bloc remains. For now, Russia proceeds from this, and, accordingly, the Russian Foreign Ministry also speaks out based on this fact. De jure, Armenia and the Russian Federation are allies in one defensive bloc.

If the talk is about some kind of military clashes outside the borders of Armenia, for example in Karabakh, then in this case it has nothing to do with the CSTO. Karabakh is Azerbaijan, accordingly, Russia will not participate in hostilities in this situation, but can offer exclusively its peacekeeping capabilities, say, for conducting negotiations and concluding an agreement.

We must understand that the Russian Federation does not need a second front at all; it has no need for participation in the war in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Moscow will make every effort to resolve relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia peacefully, according to the Tripartite Statement of November 2020, which also includes the opening of the Zangazur corridor and the unblocking of important transport communications in the region. So, the Russian Federation sees the future in the South Caucasus exactly like this, without any military intervention.

- And finally, how would you comment on the recent statements by the Iranian defence minister that there will be no war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and also that Tehran does not accept changes in the borders between states?

- The first part of the statement is very optimistic. Let us all believe that there will be no war. Of course, no one wants this. Probably including Iran. As for the second part of the statement, regarding borders, in fact, no one is suggesting changes in borders. The task is to sign an agreement on border demarcation, and nothing more. The existing borders in the South Caucasus are generally recognized, even by the leadership of Armenia. You just need to sign a full-fledged agreement, and not make loud statements from Yerevan. So, the Iranian minister is saying approximately what other participants in international processes are saying. Mutual recognition of borders and the signing of an agreement are required, without any military action. Let's hope this happens.