Thirty-six “lost” congress members against Azerbaijan Experts say Trump unmoved by pro-Armenian petition

Thirty-six U.S. congress members have called on Secretary of State Marco Rubio to impose sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act against Azerbaijani officials “responsible for gross human rights violations against Armenians, including illegal detention, torture, and sham trials of prisoners of war and the former military-political leadership of Artsakh.” This was reported by the Central Office of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun’s “Hai Dat” Bureau.

The signatories of the letter stress: “To this day, Azerbaijan continues to illegally detain at least 23 known Armenian prisoners of war captured during and following the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh,” adding that “ these political hostages [...] have been subject to abuse and degrading treatment in custody.”

“The sham trials of high-profile Armenian figures undermine confidence-building measure necessary for a sustainable peace. Releasing political prisoners and prisoners of war is a critical step toward achieving a just and lasting resolution…we believe Magnitsky Sanctions are a critical tool to leverage the release of POWs and deter further aggression against Armenia,” the letter states.

One can’t help but wonder: will such a petition by pro-Armenian lobbyists in Congress have any tangible effect at all? What exactly are they hoping to achieve under the new President Trump, who, not long ago, expressed firm U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in a written message congratulating President Aliyev on Novruz?

Well-known political experts shared their views on the matter with Caliber.Az.

Doctor of Political Science, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, and diplomat Tatyana Poloskova (Russia) first pointed out that Trump is a pragmatist, a man of action, and naturally believes that good relations between the U.S. and Azerbaijan are far more important for his country than tales of a mythical “Great Armenia” or a “Turk-enslaved Artsakh.”

“Moreover, he’s a billionaire, and the Armenian diaspora simply doesn’t have the resources to buy his support. Trump certainly won’t jeopardise relations with Baku. Especially given that there’s no evidence of any unlawful prosecution of former ‘Artsakh’ leaders and their associates. If there were, the congressmen behind this protest petition would have publicised it. As it stands, this is clearly a politically motivated attack on Azerbaijan. And frankly, the U.S. government and its citizens have no interest in spoiling ties with Baku just to please individuals accused of war crimes who are now on trial.

The trials currently taking place in Baku against separatists who committed grave crimes—those who effectively organised and took part in the genocide of the Azerbaijani people—are an internal matter of Azerbaijan. The opinions of U.S. congressmen can have no influence on this process. The signatories of this letter are well aware of this fact themselves, but they need to fulfil an assignment. I'm not saying all of them are doing it for financial gain. Some, due to poor awareness or innate sentimentality, have chosen to stand up for outright thugs. These individuals could find far more appropriate causes to champion in the United States itself—where, unlike in Azerbaijan, the death penalty has not been abolished. Let them write petitions in defence of those sentenced to death or lengthy prison terms. Yet even in the U.S., defending murderers, maniacs, and terrorists is unlikely to gain much public sympathy.

I am confident that Trump will not change his policy toward Azerbaijan under the influence of such appeals. He may even urge the signatories to focus on their own country instead of interfering in others’ affairs—especially to defend individuals who themselves have admitted guilt in the crimes they are charged with. The defendants have repeatedly confirmed this in court, as well as the fact that no unlawful methods were used against them," the diplomat stated.

International affairs expert and head of the “South Caucasus” Political Scientists Club, Ilgar Velizade, noted that this type of appeal is the first of its kind during Trump’s presidency, making the U.S. reaction difficult to predict—especially considering that Marco Rubio himself once showed considerable sympathy toward Armenians during his time as a legislator.

“However, times have changed, and so have priorities. We can see that the current U.S. administration is trying to act based on pragmatic interests. Moreover, Trump previously worked with Azerbaijan during his 45th presidency.

That past cooperation could play a significant role in this context. Furthermore—as mentioned in Trump’s letter to President Aliyev—the special ties between Azerbaijan and Israel are also a factor in the current U.S.-Azerbaijani relationship.

We know that most of the lawmakers who appealed to Rubio belong to the camp of Trump’s opponents and are outspoken critics of both his domestic and foreign policy. To expect the current administration to listen attentively to them—let alone rush to fulfil their demands—is entirely unrealistic.

That’s why I believe that, considering the current administration’s pragmatic approach and its tendency to view relations with other countries through the lens of realpolitik, these efforts by certain American lawmakers are unlikely to have any significant impact.

Especially now that the electoral cycle is over, there is no real need to court the Armenian lobby. Therefore, I think this appeal will ultimately be ignored,” Velizade concluded.