Pashinyan between rock and hard place as West has new protégé in mind
Karabakh clan's new face takes the stage?

ANALYTICS  31 January 2024 - 11:53

A curious piece of news, or probably a hoax, has appeared in the Armenian daily "Hraparak" about the growing row between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan.

"Relations between Grigoryan and ruling Civil Contract deputies have heated up because Grigoryan once broke from the political team and came to the fore. It is clear to all that Grigoryan, who is in denial about his Karabakh origins, has been singled out in the West and even seen as Pashinyan's successor. And if Pashinyan does not meet the West's demands, and does not pursue a clear policy towards Russia, it is not excluded that he will be replaced by Grigoryan, who gladly implements Western programmes. Internal party discussions show that if at first, Pashinyan did not take this scenario seriously, now he is worried about Armen Grigoryan's independent game with the West," Hraparak writes.

Well, we've already written about the fact that Pashinyan may not be a 100% pro-Western politician in one of our articles following Baku and Yerevan's landmark statement on exchanging soldiers on December 7 last year. We were even of the opinion that under these circumstances the West had no choice but to seek a replacement for Pashinyan.

From this point of view, it is quite logical that the Europeans are on the lookout for a figure who could be Pashinyan's replacement in case he loses his loyalty to the West. And it is doubly logical that this choice should have fallen on the person who is in charge of relations with the EU, namely Armen Grigoryan. It is also worth reminding our readers (and this was also mentioned in our materials) that it is Grigoryan who oversees Yerevan's interaction with the EU intelligence mission, including the espionage sabotage of the Russian military base in Gyumri.

There is another factor that helps to make this happen. Grigoryan is from Karabakh. He is an ambitious politician, and the main engine of any ambitious politician's career is ego. Can there be any doubt that Grigoryan's ego has been bruised by Azerbaijan's glorious victory? Moreover, it can be expressed in ordinary things. For example, Pashinyan can go to his native Ijevan in the summer, Vahagn Khachaturian - to Sisian. But Grigoryan will not be able to go to his "little homeland", to Khojavand. More precisely, he can go, but only with a foreign passport. This will be a source of great humiliation for him. It will probably be an incentive to implement the ideas of revanchism. Moreover, Grigoryan is the nephew of Movses Hakobyan, one of the leaders of the armed separatist groups and "Minister of Defence" of the fake entity "NKR". No, of course, a nephew is not responsible for his uncle, and yet, in the sum of the factors, it can be assumed that Grigoryan is the new face of the Karabakh clan. The question is why, unlike the older generation, he is betting on the West rather than Russia? The answer is simple. The clan decided not to put all its eggs in one basket, especially after being convinced in April 2016 that tectonic shifts are underway in the South Caucasus.

It should be added that Grigoryan is no fool; he is gradually gaining political experience and has extensive contacts in the West. There is therefore a very high probability that the West will have its eye on Pashinyan and, in the event of his loss of control, on Grigoryan.

Grigoryan is less charismatic than his boss, but that may play into his hands. An apathetic society may well elect an apathetic man. As an experienced technocrat, he could come to power. I would not be surprised if Grigoryan becomes a compromise figure for the post of prime minister for those forces that are against peace with Azerbaijan, starting with the Dashnaks and ending with the madmen of "Sasna Tsrer". He is very similar to a person who comes to power for a short time but stays in power for a long time. Pashinyan should be very worried if the forces that are not happy with him do not have time to wait until the next parliamentary elections.

Pashinyan has apparently been able to maintain relations with Grigoryan to the extent that he has been able to pursue an anti-Russian policy. However, the contradictions and conflicts between the two are growing as Yerevan approaches the point where a foreign policy choice must be made. Perhaps that point has already been reached, and that's what Hraparak is trying to say by publishing this. If it didn't make much sense to talk about it before, now that the conflict has reached its peak, it's time to bring Grigoryan out into the light.

It is not even a question of whether this version of events reflects the true state of affairs or not. Let's pretend they don't. Then another question arises: why does the Karabakh clan need to artificially inflame the Pashinian-Grigoryan conflict at this moment? Hraparak" has always opposed Pashinyan. Perhaps, as we have said, the H-hour has already come to determine the vector of foreign policy. Pashinyan cannot dare to take a decisive step towards the West. After all, he never withdrew Armenia from the EAEU and the CSTO. In other words, the revanchists and their Western patrons have their eyes on Grigoryan.

Even if Grigoryan himself has no inkling of this fact.

Caliber.Az