Armenia faces Moscow's warning amidst growing EU relations
Can Kremlin unravel Yerevan's Western ties?

ANALYTICS  16 February 2024 - 17:38

Yerevan's systematic drawing closer to the European Union is taking place against the backdrop of a marked cooling of Armenian-Russian relations. This is rightly displeasing to Russia, which remains Armenia's main ally and guarantor of security in the Caucasus despite its negligent outpost's constant glances towards the West.

Moscow, mainly through Lavrov's office, periodically reminds Armenia that its geopolitical antics that run counter to Russian policy, such as its accession to the Rome Statute, to put it mildly, may not have very good consequences for Yerevan.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova once again spoke in a similar vein. Commenting on the issue of Armenia's accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), she said that Moscow plans and expects to receive relevant assurances from Armenian partners on a bilateral line, which is well known in Yerevan.

"Armenia's accession to the Rome Statute of the ICC does not affect bilateral relations in the best way, forcing Yerevan to make some kind of choice between the ICC obligations dictated by the West and political dialogue with Russia, interaction within the framework of Eurasian integration," Zakharova noted.

Armenia officially became a member of the International Criminal Court on February 1. Moscow has repeatedly hinted to Yerevan that by indulging the West's interests in the Caucasus, Armenia risks losing the remnants of its statehood. In fact, Zakharova has also made it clear to the Armenian side that it has significantly reduced Russia's credibility by going along with its European partners.

The Russian side has voiced such messages many times, and moreover, in October last year the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the European Union had betrayed Armenia and was not providing “any stability and de-escalation, but was engaged in intelligence monitoring in the interests of Brussels and provoking the situation”.

Russia has been showing its discontent with the presence of the EU mission in Armenia, which, under the pretext of monitoring the border zone, is actually engaged in espionage. Back in February last year, Zakharova said that Moscow sees the EU mission in Armenia as purely geopolitical, far from the interests of normalization between Baku and Yerevan, and as an attempt to squeeze Russia out of the region.

However, not heeding Moscow's fears, the Armenian side, on the contrary, supported the possibility of expanding the observer mission, and the decision of official Yerevan and the EU to start working on "an ambitious expansion of the partnership", which was announced recently by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, well-known Armenophile Josep Borrell, showed that Yerevan firmly "got hooked by the EU".

Moscow clearly realizes that it is losing Armenia. The Armenian prime minister's recent interview with the British newspaper The Telegraph, in which he outlined the programmatic provisions of the country's new security strategy, has finally enraged Russia.

Thus, declaring the rejection of allied relations with Russia, the Armenian prime minister voiced the thesis that Yerevan sees no possibility of developing the former allied relations with Moscow, which is becoming only one of many partners, along with, for example, the US and the EU. Pashinyan's bold rhetoric outlined the contours of Yerevan's emerging new military strategy, in which Russia should not take centre stage.

In this regard, Pashinyan may be reminded of the fate of his predecessor. I remember that Sargsyan also talked a lot about Armenia's path to Europe and European integration. However, after his trip to Moscow in September 2013, Sargsyan had to forget about Europe. He declared that from now on Armenia's priority was to join the Eurasian Union. That is, Moscow then showed that it is the master of the situation and only it can dictate the terms and rules of the game to its outpost.

Now Russia is trying to convey to Armenia that its games with the West may cost the "country of stones" dearly. At the same time, Russia is showing that it has no intention of ceding its position in the region, despite the vain efforts of the West.

So far, Russia is "gently" pressing Armenia through the Foreign Ministry to choose the future course of development. But Armenia does not seem to notice this. Euphoria from rapprochement with the EU reigns there. But Moscow's patience is also running out. Will the Kremlin manage to pull Armenia out of the West's embrace? Time will tell.

Caliber.Az