"EU and US push Armenia towards new regional conflict"
Russian experts talk to Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  03 April 2024 - 12:45

The closer we get to April 5, when the EU-US-Armenia summit will be held in Brussels, the more aggressive Yerevan becomes both towards Azerbaijan, on the conventional border with which the Armenian army is preparing for new provocations, and Russia.

Pashinyan has, in fact, decided to legitimise his betrayal and the severance of his longstanding ties with Russia. According to Russian analysts, if Yerevan "lies down" to Brussels and Washington, the gates for a Western military and political invasion of the South Caucasus will be practically open.

Foreign experts shared their views on the situation with Caliber.Az.

According to military expert, reserve colonel, professor of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Russian Federation Alexander Tikhansky, the statement of Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan that the US and Europe are Armenia's main partners was premature. Simply because Pashinyan's expected April 5 meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will not bring concrete pro-Armenian actions.

"The US and Europe are currently only trying to deprive Russia of influence in this region with at least some promises in the sphere of Armenia's military security.

Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said that the meeting was not directed against either Russia or Azerbaijan, although Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow was concerned about it because "the United States and the EU directly tell our partners that their main focus is exclusively against Russia. It has long been known that the European Union perceives Armenia exclusively as a source of its own benefit and is indifferent to the real needs of the republic. And the U.S. generally views cooperation with Armenia as an opportunity to damage relations between Yerevan and Moscow. In Moscow's opinion, the West is turning Armenia into a tool for the implementation of its own plans, which causes concern in Russia, especially since NATO plans to open a second front against Russia in the South Caucasus," Tikhansky noted.

According to him, it is worth remembering that the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, emphasized that it was the CSTO that has repeatedly defended the interests of Armenia in difficult situations, and “at the moment Yerevan is distorting the history of recent years.” According to A. Tikhansky, the practical embodiment of the Western vector of Yerevan’s foreign policy could be Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO and even the deployment of a small NATO contingent in the country; moreover, the Armenian leadership is trying to blackmail Moscow with this in order to get it to take a tougher position towards Azerbaijan or at least beneficial financial assistance for yourself.

"The Armenian demands for the CSTO to recognise its borders, meaning that then the CSTO will be obliged to defend them from external aggression according to its charter. Unlike Karabakh, which no one has recognised as Armenian territory, including Armenia itself. Yerevan thus wants CSTO support in the process of border delimitation with Azerbaijan. And if it has to cede part of the territory, then in this case, as in the case of Karabakh, it will again be possible to accuse Moscow of betraying Armenia and thereby tearing it away from the CSTO and the Russian Federation. Leaving the CSTO is much more dangerous because of Armenia's conflict not only with Azerbaijan, but also with Türkiye. Neither France nor the US, NATO members, will actually defend Armenia from another NATO member country. The transfer of non-capable military units to the borders of Azerbaijan is simply an attempt by Yerevan to show its determination for something more than negotiations and an opportunity to bow its head before the "victim" of the Karabakh Armenians", Tikhansky said.

According to Ruslan Aysin, a Russian political scientist and blogger, editor-in-chief of the "Truly" portal, Armenia has lost its political subjectivity and the ability to determine its political course, its sovereignty is in the hands of Brussels and Washington.

"They are quite unceremoniously using Armenia to have a presence in the South Caucasus. And the region is key, especially after Azerbaijan has returned the territories seized by Armenia and also in alliance with Türkiye has gained serious political weight, and this worries many in the West. Armenia is a toy in their hands. Of course, the fact that Armenia refuses to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan indicates that there are forces that prevent this and suggest that Yerevan sign a cooperation and security treaty. And this indicates that Armenia will acquire a military-political patron in the face of the West and will be pushed towards a new conflict in the region," the political analyst noted.

According to Aysin, the West does not feel sorry for Armenia at all, but it is necessary to disrupt the plans of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. And, naturally, this will lead to clashes with Russia.

"Because Armenia is also a member of the CSTO, the 102nd Russian military base is stationed there. And I think this will eventually lead to a serious confrontation between Moscow and Yerevan. Of course, now Russia is busy on the Ukrainian front and can't always react fully, but Armenia's recent actions and the pact of military cooperation with the West expected to be signed on 5 April threaten to change the entire geopolitical landscape in the region. There is no way Moscow can allow the West to strengthen in this direction. We see that Moscow's rhetoric, in fact, indicates that it has no intention of accepting NATO's growing influence in the region, as it considers the South Caucasus as a zone of its interests. So there will certainly be a reaction, and, in all likelihood, a very tangible one for Yerevan and all those who want to invade the region," he said.

Russian expert on Eurasia Alexander Razuvaev is sure that Armenia received its statehood as a result of the collapse of the USSR. Otherwise, Armenia would have hardly been able to form itself as a state. So Armenia's sovereignty is the result of Russia's position.

"I would like to point out once again that Armenia is now for Russia a suitcase without a handle; it is a pity to throw it away, it is hard to carry it. There is practically no benefit from Armenia for Russia - for example, the long-term occupation of Karabakh has only harmed Russia in developing economic and cultural ties with the countries of the Turkic world. For example, I heard about this at the Islamic Financial Forum in Kazan five years ago, that is, even before this forum received official status in Russia. But it happened last year, and Islamic financial flows started working in Russia," the political scientist said.

According to him, it is clear that the West is trying to invade the South Caucasus through Armenia, and if that happens, there will be a situation of permanent threat and instability in the region.

"In my opinion, security issues in the South Caucasus should be solved by regional countries, i.e. Russia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Iran. Taking into account the fact that Armenia, with the help of the West, is really preparing for revenge. But this is an obvious suicide, of course, and it may end with the complete end of Armenian statehood. The most interesting thing is that as a result of the defeat of their country in the war, Armenian refugees will run to Russia, to warm regions where they are comfortable, warm and at ease, to the same Krasnodar and Stavropol regions," Razuvaev believes.

Razuvaev said Russia also does not need Armenia as a military partner or as a market for the sale of weapons, because, as facts show, many years of practically free supply of Russian weapons to Armenia only resulted in a geopolitical betrayal of Yerevan. Who needs such a treacherous ally?

"If war breaks out, which seems to be imminent as Armenia is preparing for it, it [the war] is likely to be short and end with the defeat of the Armenian army. Because, as the 44-day war and the events of autumn 2023 have shown, Armenians are not fighters and cannot count on victory. Even if the West suddenly and somehow supplies them with some super weapons, there is also professionalism, strategy and fortitude. War is a strength of spirit in general. This is what the Azerbaijani army is strong in - just remember the legendary liberation of the city of Shusha. Moscow looks at all of Armenia's endeavours even with some irony - if the Armenians want to commit suicide voluntarily, no one is going to prevent it," Razuvaev added.

According to Russian political scientist Vladislav Gerdin, EU and US politicians are blatantly hypocritical when they claim that their intentions in the South Caucasus are transparent - this is absolutely not true.

“Is it even worth talking about what is practically obvious - having felt the support of the West, Yerevan will begin to revise the negotiation process, delay it, put forward its own conditions. That is, such unilateral support for the recent occupier will certainly encourage Yerevan to attempt armed provocations. Simply because the Armenians will be confident that whatever performance Yerevan starts, it will be supported by Brussels and Washington. So, Yerevan is ready to plunge into the abyss of intrigue and provocations, and the shelling on the conditional border with Azerbaijan is a direct confirmation of this,” the political scientist is sure.

He also noted the hypocritical game of the EU spy mission in Armenia. An element of this game are the assurances of the Armenian Foreign Minister about the desire to establish peace with Azerbaijan and the words of the EU Special Representative Klaar that "the EU mission in Armenia is open for interaction with Azerbaijan".

“One can argue and speculate a lot about why such one-sided and one-sided support for Armenia was launched - it is obvious that this is a multi-step with far-reaching consequences. Thus, a blow is dealt to Russia’s strategic position in the South Caucasus and to Baku’s confident position in the region, and, if we dig deeper, to the tandem of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. But the fact is that Europe and the United States are bluffing Armenia, promising it support. If Armenia crosses the red line in the South Caucasus and begins to receive change from both Baku and Moscow, the EU and the US will throw up their hands and leave Armenia alone to deal with its problems. This is where the failure of all Yerevan’s calculations lies,” Gerdin is sure.

Caliber.Az