Ukraine-Russia confrontation: is it endless?
Analysis by Yaroslav Osintsev

ANALYTICS  15 April 2022 - 18:04

The Russian troops have been conducting military operations in Ukraine for about a month and a half. It would seem necessary to get used to it, to perceive the situation as ordinary, but it still does not work. Apparently, I still remember the peaceful coexistence of the two countries not only during the period of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) but also during the first two decades of their independence. I have been to Ukraine and Russia many times when I was a child and in adulthood. I saw that there was no enmity between the peoples of the two countries. Sometimes Russian and Ukrainian people made fun of each other because of cultural and linguistic peculiarities. The disputes over the price of gas and the situation with the fleet were conducted at the top level. But in the end, the disputes were either resolved somehow, or their decisions were postponed for the future.

It is hard to perceive such an expression as "Ukraine and Russia are enemies". It is so strange, for example, if someone would say that the sum of the angles of a triangle is 270 degrees. Nevertheless, we have to get used to this new geopolitical "geometry". There will be no more old world. A watershed occurs. It is more correct to say "bloodshed".

I do not know how this drama will end in a political sense. How will the borders be drawn? Which territories will be transferred to Russia and Ukraine? Which autonomous rights will Ukraine’s problematic territories receive? Which military-political blocs will Ukraine enter? Who will act as its guarantor of independence? What will be the fate of millions of refugees? Which processes will take place among the leaders and elites of the two countries? Which conclusions will the armed forces and special services draw for themselves? How will both Ukrainians and Russians re-perceive the world and their country in it? But I know that citizens will remember the war for a long time, perhaps, for a century or even longer. Bloodstains are the most difficult to remove.

Even when guns and tanks are not used, people, beginning from political analysts and ending with housewives will not be silenced. Fathers and mothers, grandfathers and grandmothers will tell their children and grandchildren about the war. The younger generation will continue hating the other side.

“The Ukrainian crisis continues intensifying,” Spokesman for the Turkish president Ibrahim Kalin commented on this topic. “We have entered a new era of the Cold War. The consequences of this war will persist for decades."

Hostility, enmity, and hatred are like radioactivity. There will never be complete decay. It is only possible to talk about partial decay or about one level of decay or another. Slight hostility will remain even in 50 years when embassies will open, some photo contests or sports competitions, and even such events as "Slavic Bazaar" will be held to bring Russian and Ukrainian peoples closer.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia will disappear from the political map of the world, and once they exist, then, unequivocally, disputes will continue between them.

Can Ukraine become pro-Russian? The formulation of such a question is simply ridiculous in the near foreseeable future. I'm sorry for the impropriety of this word in such a tragic case. It cannot be pro-Russian as a result of the ruins of Ukrainian cities, the funerals of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, and civilians, after several million people became refugees. Anything can happen in Ukraine. Power may change there, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be responsible for failures in the war (or for losing it if it will be so). There may be certain Eurosceptic tendencies in the country among some people amid resentment that EU countries did not get involved in an armed conflict. But one thing remains unchanged. In the future, Ukraine’s next few generations will perceive the country that is located to the east of their country as something hostile.

"There is no chance for Russia to keep at least some ideological control over Ukraine,” Russian sociologist and philosopher Grigory Yudin said via "Tell Gordeeva" YouTube channel. “This has been lost forever,” Yudin said. “Proceeding from the long history of coexistence between Russia and Ukraine or Russians and Ukrainians, there was an opportunity to offer them something that, on the one hand, would respect them, and on the other hand, would be attractive to them from the point of view of integration into some common area with Russia. Presently, such a possibility is excluded, I think that forever."

However, the West may have certain views related to Ukraine. Let's remember the history. The Cossacks in the steppes of the Don, Kuban, Volga and Terek served medieval and imperial Russia as a shield protecting the central regions of the country from the Muslim peoples of the Caucasus, as well as the Turkic peoples of the Steppe. A similar function was performed by the Dnieper, that is, the  Zaporozhian Cossacks but for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Cossacks were passionate people. They loved freedom and lived their own, independent life. They did not tolerate dictates. Of course, there were clashes between the Cossacks and the center, but if the center did not violate their rights, then the Cossacks were useful to it.  Having accurately recalled the line from Ukraine’s anthem - "We will show that we are the Cossacks brothers", the West may consider the Ukrainians as a shield in front of the unpredictable, traditionally wary of the West - Russia.

The power is unstable, not sacred in Ukraine, but the paradigm of development that’s the awareness of oneself as a young, strong, independent nation, ready to fight for its ideals is rather stable. Ukraine’s ideology is national-Europeanism.

The situation is more complicated with Russia. This country has changed its development vector and its platform of existence several times over the past 200 years. The power is quite stable in the country in peacetime, but the situation may be unmanageable during the upheaval, force majeure. Anything can also happen there beginning from the fact that nothing will happen and the existing political regime will remain and revive in the future easily, and ending with the events comparable to the era of the Time of Troubles or the period of wars and revolutions of 1905-1922.

The Russian society is quite complex both in terms of social composition and thoughts because an ordinary Russian citizen thinks that mutually exclusive political concepts can get along. There are many social groups in the society of the Russian Federation that differ in their habitat, income, education, outlook, adherence to one or another ideology, and the degree of integration into the world situation.

Taking into account the ambiguity of Russian society, I think we can distinguish some correlations. Educated people, living in megacities, representing the middle class and upper class, are inclined to the liberal ideas, while, the Russians who, due to some circumstances (income, habitat) were deprived of an opportunity to get an education, to explore the world through the internet or travel, are more committed to the ideas of isolation, exclusivity, as well as radical patriotism. The first category is more inclined to condemn the "special operation", while the second category is more loyal to the actions of their president and his entourage, as well as the army. We will not consider such an issue whether it comes from personal grievances against the more successful people, lack of access to alternative information, or the habit of supporting the government constantly.

Now the Russians are under sanctions. But even these sanctions have a dubious effect. The West assumed that the current situation affected people’s income. The Russians, who found themselves in a difficult financial situation, went to anti-war protest rallies or even joined the opposition.

But so far, the sanctions have some opposite effects. A lot of citizens who are living worse now, who have lost their usual favourite things, join the ranks of the "patriots". They think that we live worse now as a result of the imposition of sanctions. Who imposed the sanctions? West did. Who is fighting the politics of the West? Putin is. So, the West is bad, and Putin is good."

It is hard to understand Russia.

Will Russians become more pro-Western? I don't think so. Russian philosopher and fantasist Vladimir Solovyov wrote that "it is necessary to be pleasant to be accepted". The West was pleasant when its benefits were available, but when the Russian citizens are deprived of all this, it is not pleasant for them anymore. Old grievances for the destroyed country, the events in the 1990s, support for color revolutions that clearly had an anti-Kremlin sentiment, and the non-inclusion of the Russian Federation in the Eastern Partnership program are coming to the forefront. Many Russians think that the West teased them with its advertisements, and coloured showcases, but then abandoned them, or even took advantage of the difficult political situation in the growing country. Maybe one day there will be more democracy in Russia. But it is not a fact that a liberal politician will be chosen through democratic methods.

The reason why Ukraine will not become pro-Russian is obvious.

Thus, both sides will perceive each other as an enemy for a long time. The war will last for a long time, and if not hot, then at least Cold War.

"How long do you think this war will last? A month? A year?", my neighbour once asked me.

I thought and replied that the war will last at least several decades and this answer surprised my neighbour.

I think about my relatives living in eastern Ukraine and millions of families like them. They did not want war and did not participate in rallies. They thoroughly built their house and planted fruits and vegetables. They raise children. Now they are shocked because something terrible has occurred.

Today I have turned 45 years old. I want only one gift-peace. If there is no peace, then at least let the war not be hot.

Caliber.Az