Turkish and Armenian analysts on progress of relations in future
Turkish analyst, Armenian former political prisoner comment for Caliber.Az

ANALYTICS  01 May 2022 - 13:42

As for the relations between Armenia and Turkey, another round of negotiations is planned to be held within the normalization process between Yerevan and Ankara. Press secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Vahan Hunanyan wrote on Facebook that the third meeting of the special representatives of Turkey and Armenia will be held on May 3.

The previous two meetings with the special representatives of Turkey and Armenia were held in Moscow and Vienna on January 14 and February 22, respectively. As is known, presently, there are no diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia as bilateral relations were suspended by Turkey due to the occupation of Azerbaijan’s Kalbajar district by Armenia in 1993. As a result, the land border was closed.

The intentions of Turkey and Armenia to restore bilateral relations were mentioned in December 2021, after Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity following the 44-day second Armenia-Azerbaijan Karabakh war in 2020, thereby removing the main obstacle to establishing a dialogue between Turkey and Armenia.

The diplomats of Armenia and Turkey are currently trying to expediently use the new power structure in the region, envisaging the promotion of a peace agenda in the foreseeable future. However, it is clear that it is still early to say that the sides are ready for trusting relations. This is a fairly long process that can cover several years. However, frequent meetings of the special representatives show that Turkish and Armenian governmental circles are interested in rapprochement. 

Everybody knows that there are problems of historical significance in relations between the two countries mainly due to Armenia’s biased attitude towards Turkey in connection with the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire, which the Armenians have been trying to present as “genocide” for over a hundred years.

Armenia still has territorial claims toward Turkey, as well as towards Azerbaijan, despite the fact that the Karabakh problem has already been resolved. Therefore, the arguments that Armenia will have to abandon its biased policy correspond to logic and common sense. This is also an objective approach because Armenia, which is still in a protracted social and economic crisis, will primarily benefit from rapprochement with Turkey.

However, the efforts of only politicians and diplomats are not enough. The need of normalizing relations with Turkey, as well as with Azerbaijan, must be consciously perceived by the Armenian public as a real way out of the impasse. However, proceeding from the protests in Armenia, some citizens of this country are not ready for such a process. On the contrary, the rallies in Armenia show that the Armenian public is rather hostile towards Turkey.

This is mainly connected with the current status of Yerevan as the losing side, for which the Armenians blame Turkey. In this case, the Armenian media outlets, which are engaged in counter-propaganda of the Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, aggravate the situation. Thus, Yerevan’s several opposition media outlets regard the possible normalization of relations with Turkey as a betrayal of the authorities and this greatly intensifies anti-Turkish hysteria.

That is, in general, the normalization of the Armenia-Turkey relations seems to be a rather complicated process, which requires a long work of diplomats and a change in the mood of the Armenian society. In turn, Azerbaijan fully supports the normalization of the Armenia-Turkey relations and hopes for the economic development of the South Caucasus as this is beneficial for all regional players.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated during a meeting with participants of the international conference entitled "South Caucasus: Development and Cooperation" that Armenia needs to put down territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey. “At the same time, I think that there should also be an understanding in Armenia that they cannot continue to live like an isolated island in this region. They need to normalize relations with us. They need to put down territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey and not be hesitant in any interaction on a trilateral level in the South Caucasus,” the president said.

“We suggested the levels of foreign ministers. Armenia refused. Then, there was a suggestion to have this meeting on the level of experts. Again Armenia refused. Then we suggested having this meeting on the level of civil society representatives, and again Armenia refused. Our partners know this, and we do not understand why. Because we think it is counter-productive if we look to the future of the South Caucasus as an integrated area of security, cooperation, and shared prosperity, then this policy of Armenia is beyond any logic,” the president added.

While speaking about the normalization of the Armenia-Turkey relations, one more important detail must be stressed. Turkey, as opposed to Armenia, is optimistic about the normalization of relations with Armenia.

For example, Turkish political analyst Engin Ozer regards this process positively.

“First of all, Armenia itself needs normalization of relations, given the extremely difficult economic situation in this country,” Ozer said.

“Obviously, the Armenian government is interested in restoring diplomatic relations with Turkey, which is welcomed by Turkey as well. However, Armenia must sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. This is necessary to avoid a new Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the future,” Ozer added.

“There are already de facto humanitarian ties between Turkey and Armenia. A schedule of flights from Turkey to Armenia has been established. About 60,000 Armenians live and work in Turkey. All this gives reason to think that diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey can be established within a year. At the same time, the establishment of the Armenia-Turkey relations can give impetus to the further development of the Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and the entire region,” Ozer told Caliber.Az.

During an interview with Caliber.Az, a former Armenian political prisoner living in Canada, and editor-in-chief of “The Literary Canada” newspaper Vahagn Karapetyan also stood for support of the normalization of the Armenia-Turkey relations.

“My position on this issue is well known. The Armenian people will primarily benefit from the improvement of relations with Turkey and therefore I am in favour of the normalization of ties. It's time to forget the past, painful moments. It is necessary to turn over the old pages and start to write a new history of good neighbourliness and mutual understanding. I hope the representatives of the Armenian side who are authorized to conduct negotiations understand this,” Karapetyan said.

By the way, Ara Gochunyan, editor-in-chief of the Yerevan Zhamanak newspaper in Istanbul, has a similar opinion. “The third meeting of the special representatives is a positive development as it means the continuation of the process. The significance of continuing the process is that Ankara and Yerevan, despite their different expectations from each other, can now find public speakers to continue this work,” Gochunyan said.

In conclusion, it is worth stressing that such comments on the Armenian-Turkish agenda give some hope that calls for the restoration of a normal dialogue with neighbouring countries can be heard by Armenia itself, where the opposition forces most often openly demonstrate anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani hysteria on the eve of important negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Caliber.Az