Will Russia-Ukraine war spill over into Moldova?
Russian political analyst’s point of view

INTERVIEWS  08 May 2022 - 12:20

Armenia will have to go through a difficult period given the participation of the leaders of the "Karabakh clan", namely, war criminals ex-president Robert Kocharyan, ex-president Serzh Sargsyan, former defence minister Seyran Ohanyan in actively fueling the situation in the country. Protest actions are rapidly gaining momentum in Armenia. Street rallies of Armenian revanchists are held under the slogans such as “Saving Armenia and Artsakh from Nikol, the capitulator” who, by the way, was brought to power as a result of similar street protests in 2018.

Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, political analyst Alexey Naumov, shared his opinions in an interview with a Caliber.Az.

Faceless Armenian opposition

Naumov is convinced that despite the protests and actions of disobedience, the internal political situation in Armenia remains to be unpredictable at all.

“There is no real threat of a coup in Armenia. There are such suggestions that if the Armenian opposition uses the methods that Pashinyan once used, then it can win. However, I do not think so,” Naumov said. “When Nikol Pashinyan tried to come to power, he had an image of the future. The current opposition has no vision of the future. Opposition parties are gaining a total of about a quarter of the votes, which was obvious as a result of the last year’s elections. The opposition lacks a well-defined program, as well as an action plan for the future. Therefore, the Armenian society has the right to ask the opposition clear questions: what will change in Armenia after opposition’s return to power? Are Kocharyan or Sargsyan ready to abandon the 2020 tripartite statement [signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan]? Are they ready to tell President Putin that a tripartite statement is not in Armenia's interests? Certainly, no. This will not happen. Therefore, in the current situation, when Armenia is in a political crisis, it is very convenient to play the role of the opposition and fulfill its tasks. That is, to scold the authorities for betrayal, for indecision and the bad situation in the country, but at the same time without offering anything specific in return.”

“The reality is that the opposition, which is now trying to destabilise the situation in Armenia, after coming to power, will be forced to do everything that Pashinyan is doing today. This is also clear. Armenia has no foreign policy alternative. The opposition is just trying to score political points; however, it does not long for power. Therefore, I would regard the current events in Armenia as an internal political struggle aimed at undermining the position and prestige of the current Armenian leadership, rather than coming to power,” Naumov said.

War will not be waged!

 “Armenian society does not want a new war with Azerbaijan. Even in case of opposition’s hypothetical, impossible, to my mind, rise to power, I think that no one will support a new war with Azerbaijan. Armenia understands that it will be completely defeated as a result of the war and the war will be ruinous for Armenia itself,” Naumov said.

“On the other hand, being in power in Armenia entails an indisputable establishment of relations with Azerbaijan and, in general, the pacification of the South Caucasus. I think that there is no reason to worry about a possible new war with Azerbaijan. I have already said earlier that the vector of appeasing the South Caucasus remains unchanged. I think that Armenia, having gone through all these political “diseases” and the whole uncomfortable process of adaptation to new realities, will continue to move towards the conclusion of a peace treaty, as well as the demarcation and delimitation of borders.

Moscow’s goals have not been achieved

Naumov has further expressed his point of view on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

 “Russia has not achieved its goals in Ukraine yet, otherwise it would have announced the end of the special operation. Currently, the main confrontation is Donbas, Moscow considers it necessary to take control of the territories within the borders of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions (on the territory of the so-called “LPR” [Luhansk People’s Republic] and “DPR” [Donetsk People’s Republic], as well as to protect the inhabitants of Donbas,” Naumov said. “These are official goals, among which "demilitarization" and "denazification" were also declared. We mean by demilitarization the restrictions on the composition and strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and by denazification - the exclusion of radical nationalist formations from the decision-making process of the country's political system. Now, these goals have not been achieved, and it is obvious that military operations will continue in the near future.”

War of attrition …

“The situation in Donbas has become protracted, local clashes and artillery duels continue. Therefore, I think that military operations will continue for several weeks or months. In fact, there is taking place a war of attrition. Moscow hopes that Ukraine will not withstand the losses and will compromise on the Russian language, the status of Donbas and the official status of Crimea,” the expert noted.

“Ukraine, for its part, hopes for Western assistance, for continued resupply of weapons and Western funds, which will force Russia to withdraw to those borders where it was before February 24, 2022, or even before 2014. However, such a scenario is unlikely real.”

Is Russia too busy to think about Transnistria?

 “The war in Ukraine will not spill over into Moldova, as Russia’s main military forces are concentrated in Donbas. The Russian Federation sees no sense of thinking about Transnistria,” Naumov said. “If the Ukrainian troops do not consider it possible and acceptable to attack Transnistria on their own, then I would not expect a conflict on Moldova’s territory. The expansion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not favorable and is not in the interests of Russia, because Moscow's goal is clearly formulated and limited to a certain perimeter. Russia has no claims to other countries. It is concerned about the main issue - ensuring its own security and protecting the population of Donbas, as it has announced. Accordingly, Russia does not feel necessity for any additional actions on Moldova’s territory.”

Caliber.Az