"Russia can theoretically compel CSTO members to send troops to Ukraine"
Are the bloc's members prepared for this?

ANALYTICS  08 June 2022 - 17:58

The Russian-Ukrainian war may move into a new phase - with the involvement of the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] member states in it. This is the conclusion that emerges from the recent statement by the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defence Andrei Kartopolov in the Russian media, in which he voiced several important political theses of Moscow at once.

First, the deputy noted that the CSTO member countries (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan) can send their peacekeepers to the territories of Ukraine controlled by the Russian Federation, including the "Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics".

Second, he said that Russia would never agree to the introduction of peacekeepers from NATO countries.

Third, the CSTO troops may be needed after the end of hostilities and the fulfilment of all the tasks of the "special military operation".

The fact that Russia is talking about the introduction of CSTO troops into Ukraine no longer seems nonsense. Russia previously used them in the crisis situation in Kazakhstan in January this year. And now, when the war in Ukraine has actually taken on a protracted character, theoretically, Russia can once again use the support of the CSTO to achieve its goals and objectives. Against the background of the Russian deputy's assumptions, the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the CSTO summit (May 16), during which he announced major military exercises on the territory of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in the autumn of this year, seems to be different.

Officially, the goal of the upcoming CSTO military exercises was announced as equipping the armed forces of the organisation's member countries with modern weapons and equipment. However, at least it seems strange that, while rearming the CSTO member states in accordance with modern requirements, Russia in no way counts on the support of the Eurasian military bloc in a crisis situation for it.

The war in Ukraine is the very case when Moscow most needs the military and ideological support of the countries of this alliance. Another thing is that literally, all other members of this organisation are absolutely not interested in getting involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war. For more than three months, Russia has been fighting Ukraine virtually alone. At the same time, the bet on the military-political assistance of Russia's closest ally in the CSTO, Belarus, was also unsuccessful. Minsk avoids confrontation with the Western world and direct involvement in the war in Ukraine in every possible way, realising the serious consequences of this step. [Belarus President Alexander] Lukashenko pursues a rather flexible policy, as they say, bypassing sharp corners. However, Russia would like to use the support of the CSTO for two reasons. Firstly, to accelerate the outcome of the war in their favour. Secondly, to enhance the image of the CSTO as a consolidated military bloc as opposed to NATO.

Therefore, the statement of the Russian deputy about the inadmissibility of the appearance of Western peacekeeping forces on the territory of Ukraine is a direct and unambiguous message to the countries of the Western military bloc, in particular Poland. It was the latter who came up with a similar initiative, which was first announced by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski during his visit to Kyiv.

Later, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made a similar statement on Polish television, noting that the proposal to send a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine will be discussed at the next NATO summit, which will be held in Madrid from June 28 to 30. And its approach irritates Moscow because it is on it that NATO countries will discuss subsequent actions and steps aimed at supporting Ukraine.

It is interesting that while this material was being prepared for publication, information appeared in the Russian media that the Russian presidential press secretary, Dmitriy Peskov, refused to comment to journalists on the issue of the initiative to introduce the CSTO peacekeeping forces into Ukraine's territory, citing that he did not have such data.

Information about the possible deployment of CSTO peacekeeping forces on the territory of Ukraine has not been ignored by the Russian expert community. Russian statesman and public figure, expert Sergey Markov in the comment for Caliber.Az ruled out the possibility of the CSTO peacekeeping troops entering the territory of Ukraine. According to him, theoretically, only Belarus could participate in the process of bringing the CSTO peacekeeping forces to Ukraine's territory.

"Countries like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan are afraid of Americans. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that they will agree to send their troops to the territory of Ukraine. For today, this is a zero chance. On the other hand, Russia can theoretically force them to join this process. But it will take a lot of effort, and the result is insufficient," Markov believes.

P.S. According to some Western political analysts, Russia has failed to involve its allies in the war against Ukraine, which it tried to do at the last meeting of the CSTO leaders in Moscow on May 16. According to experts, this is largely due to the fears of the CSTO countries to find themselves in the epicentre of a losing war, participation in which can hit hard on the economic and military aspects of each of them.

Caliber.Az