"The unrest in Armenia is based on clear public reflexes. This is revanchism"
Caliber.Az interviews Roman Gazenko

INTERVIEWS  09 June 2022 - 19:01

Caliber.Az had an interview with Russian political analyst and publicist Roman Gazenko.

- Roman Vladimirovich, how would you assess the process of normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in the current, post-war period?

- At this stage, the US and some European Union countries are actively interfering in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. This is a very delicate stage, which we are going through. First of all, the general background to what is happening is the fundamental difference in the status of the Azerbaijani leader and Nikol Pashinyan, who can hardly be called a leader. They have different signs of predictable political behaviour. The Azerbaijani leader relies on the society he leads, which is united by an idea, and which sees in his steps a confirmation of the immutability of his course in the defence of national interests. But Nikol Pashinyan is literally devoid of political subjectivity; it is entirely formal. He even now has to address the issue of personal power, which is not the issue in Azerbaijan. The Armenian leader is in a situation of constant political splits. The unrest that is taking place in Armenia is most likely inspired from outside, but it is based on very clear reflexes of Armenian society. This is revanchism. And in this situation, Pashinyan will be forced to manoeuvre in order to preserve his personal power as a goal, rather than for the sake of national interests. Internal and external forces are pushing him toward revanchism, and this must be taken into account. This is a very serious threat.

- A threat to Pashinyan?

- For Pashinyan, the threat is constant, he has a revanchist opposition, which has now turned its back on Russia, which acted as a guarantor of peace in the region and, according to the public, infringes on Armenian interests. Now the internal situation in Armenia forces Pashinyan to drift towards the West, which will use Armenia as a detonator of the situation in the region. Taking advantage of Russia's concentration in another area, first of all, the US will want to take revenge, and this is understandable. In this case, they will try to regain their influence in the region, to prevent Russia from monopolizing the role of the guarantor of peace in the situation around Karabakh. And in this, I see a very serious threat.

Pashinyan will go for such cooperation, his current foreign policy moves speak for themselves. The relevant statements by the US Foreign Ministry show that the region is in the crosshairs and is starting to become a focus of American interests, and we are facing a very interesting situation. On the one hand, let's be frank, Russia is acting as Russia and not as a member of the CSTO. This organization has finally shown its absolutely formal nature because there is no political unity within it. Unlike NATO and the EU with one very important exception. It is the independent position of Azerbaijan's true partner and foreign policy guarantor, Türkiye. And on this fault line within NATO (I mean Türkiye as a NATO member), Ankara has shown that it also defends its national interests, not to the detriment of bloc interests. This fault line is very irritating to the United States.

And it is the Karabakh knot that can now be used from the American side to put pressure on Türkiye and Azerbaijan. This very serious knot, where there is a weakening of Russia's role in the region by analogy with what happened with Kazakhstan, which is actually falling out of the system of the CSTO and the EAEU, and in general with what is happening now in Central Asia. This is a very serious signal. The situation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and Kazakhstan is a very alarming signal that the US will try to take revenge for not being involved, let's be frank, in controlling the situation in the Karabakh region under Trump, and this is a very strong challenge first of all to Erdogan and Aliyev. Pashinyan will inevitably prove to be the weak link in the construction of a peaceful solution to this problem. Azerbaijan is moving forward, and we observe that it is by peaceful means, recreating the social, cultural, and economic environment in the liberated regions, that it shows the only correct and constructive way to solve the problem.

We can confidently assert that internally such a term as the "Karabakh conflict" no longer exists. Azerbaijan poses no threat to the Karabakh Armenians. These are political phantoms, which are now being played as red cards in Pashinyan's foreign policy game. They are being used by the domestic political opposition, stretching him between trying to keep a face to Russia and the very obvious drift toward the United States. Pashinyan will probably try to play on the contradictions between Türkiye and NATO. In this case, it is the whole range of foreign policy facts.

- What about Russia?

- Russia is now in a difficult period of liberation from decades-long (I use this term with scepticism) "implementation" into the Western structure and Western model. That is really the way of gaining genuine independence, and it is quite complicated. We observe the internal multi-vector nature of this process, which weakens Russia's position, including its foreign policy position. Pashinyan, as a person with exclusively reflexive logic of behaviour, cannot fail to see and understand this. As a politician with the characteristics of predictable unpredictability in order to settle, among other things, the internal conflict in Armenia, he will inevitably change the "master". This is now the main threat factor to the peace process in the region, and then we can assume how it can develop. First of all, this is the freezing of the development of the communication infrastructure, first of all, we mean a very important problem - the Zangazur corridor. The position on the absence of a corridor solution to territorial problems has demonstrated its futility, in particular, it concerns the problem of de facto blockade of the Kaliningrad region from Russia, when visa-free communication and the diplomatic corridor from the EU territory, which was created with great difficulty, ceased to exist. We observe how these corridors are very easily blocked due to the political state of affairs, so I assume that this will be the main stumbling block.

- Earlier you said that the US would take revenge. How do you think this will happen?

- Most likely we will observe the process of increasing the military force in Armenia. Already now there are all the signs of abolishing its arms standards. And if the process of strengthening the Armenian armed forces and restructuring, modernizing the Armenian army, changing the management system, training, and so on will be presented as a rebuilding of the defence balance, we should look at it with a backward sign. It will probably be very profitable. First, the sale of US weapons to Armenia, the spread of NATO's zone of influence, and the squeezing of Russia from the region of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has to get ready, acting on the principle "if you want peace, get ready for war".

- So you do not rule out a new war between Baku and Yerevan?

- I do not exclude it. At least, all the trends now allow characterizing the situation as a potentially escalating one.

- Russia may use political tools to put pressure on Armenia.

- Armenia is economically dependent on Russia and will play a double game. In this case, I would not talk about levers of pressure on Armenia - in principle, it is not my status to advise the Russian Foreign Ministry on how to act, but here we can talk about not pressuring, but putting Armenia before a choice. Right now we should not watch this hypocritical drift of "straddling the fence", but put the question firmly: either this or that. Stop playing into the Minsk Group, which has already shown its incompetence and has been artificially freezing the conflict all these years, without contributing at all to the political solution of the problem, and led the situation to the point where Azerbaijan had to use military force. Now it is necessary to define, to expose. But in this case, politics is a very complicated thing, and maybe other factors are also at play. At the very least, we must not let political wishful thinking be taken for granted. We need to clearly understand what the trends are, what is really happening, and what can happen. The masks have long been torn off, this is not a carnival, real life has begun, and we must face the truth. We must judge everything by its actions, not by its statements. If we see that just a couple of days before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the President of Azerbaijan pays a visit to Moscow, shows that upholding the national interests of the country is above the current conflicts, demonstrates an independent, sovereign policy, acting on the principle of "I forgot to ask permission, it is interesting to my country", then we must understand who is a reliable and predictable partner.

- Are you referring to the signing of the alliance declaration between Baku and Moscow?

- Of course. And then the very fact of the visit. This is a very serious, politically important gesture. One must have the political will, political courage, and true sovereignty to make such steps. In the situation of total and global uncertainty, Russia should finally start being guided by predictable partners.

- In the meantime, we are witnessing how the Armenian propaganda machine broadcasts pro-Armenian trends in Russian politics to the masses in the media and television space in Russia as a whole...

- I can't get tired of repeating that what happens in the internal information field doesn't really affect Russia's foreign and domestic policy. It is immaterial. Rather the opposite - it reveals and conceals true intentions if you will. It is my belief that real politics is done in silence. There are some very interesting signs. For example, filmmaker Karen Shakhanazarov, speaking on Solovyov's program, gave an interesting analysis, quite objective, about the prospects of Armenia's reliance on the Western Armenian lobby, particularly in the United States and France. He was rather sceptical about the influence of this lobby on the foreign policy of the USA, France and the European Union. In any case, it is again a reflection of a certain awareness, a sobering assessment of the situation. Again, I understand how painfully the Russian media space is perceived in Azerbaijan, but this in no way affects Russian policy. This is not a lobby. A real lobby works in silence. The Azerbaijani public can calmly watch all this, as the country is led by a self-sufficient leader, capable of upholding national interests. It is Armenia that should be worried about everything. In this case, it is appropriate to remember a wise eastern proverb: "when a dog barks, a camel just keeps walking". There is no need to reflect on what is being said. The people, led by a truly independent leader, can be above this and not pay attention to all these troubles.

Caliber.Az