Sheehan's truth against Karabakh clan
And Armenian opposition's rage

ANALYTICS  10 June 2022 - 17:12

The Armenian opposition and the media controlled by it are ready to burn out Professor Ivan Sascha Sheehan of the University of Baltimore for his article in the Boston Herald, where the political scientist literally explains in a few bullet points why the White House intends to support the [Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan government in the current situation. The professor's arguments are so clear and convincing that they allow us to draw a number of conclusions about the prospects of confrontation between the government and the opposition in Armenia, and in general about what the future geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus may be.

The director of the School of Public and International Relations at the University of Baltimore, a regular author of The National Interest, Ivan Sascha Sheehan, has been making landmark forecasts on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus for several years, often in the field of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. Sheehan is a sensible political scientist, obviously, that's why he was very disliked in Armenia. He does not adore "Armenian exclusivity" and does not regard the "long-suffering Armenian people" as a pillar of humanity.

This time, Armenian political scientists attacked Sheehan for the fact that the professor rightly calls the Armenians in Karabakh separatists, considering his final loss to Armenia a "positive development" that creates conditions for the country to begin to flourish due to rapprochement with Azerbaijan and Türkiye. The truth of the Baltimore professor seriously enraged Armenian political commentators, and the fact that there is not a word about the Armenian genocide and overcoming its consequences in the article caused anaphylactic shock in general. Is it any wonder that Armenians, in an undesirable situation for themselves, traditionally hide their heads like an ostrich in the sand, waving the flag of Armenian chauvinism washed into holes.

According to the American analyst, there is no doubt that the Armenian opposition is controlled by Moscow, which practically does not hide this. Well, Washington is building its plans for the region based on this circumstance.

According to Sheehan, "if the protesters in Yerevan now succeed in overthrowing Pashinyan, Russian control will again spread beyond the borders of the country...". And then he specifies his thought, noting the direct connection between the opposition and Moscow: former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan is leading the protests, and just a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine, "called on Armenia to join the Moscow-led union state, confirming its past commitments to full integration with Armenia's neighbour".

The conclusions are quite logical, and the important point is that the professor practically voices the concept of the current US policy in the South Caucasus, and there is no doubt about the reliability of his conclusions. According to Sheehan, in the context of the war in Ukraine, the United States cannot allow another post-Soviet state to fall under the control of Putin's ally. Therefore, Washington should strive to support Prime Minister Pashinyan, moreover, "lend him a helping hand".

Needless to say, Sheehan's conclusions clearly explain the reaction of the US Embassy in Yerevan, which practically does not pay attention to the cries of the opposition coming from the capital centre. In order to "awaken the conscience" of Americans, opposition leaders and the media subordinate to them have even repeatedly addressed the United States directly with angry reproach, calling for support for the "democratic choice of the Armenian people". However, they did not achieve success - the American State Department is not so stupid as not to understand who provides nutritious meals to the cartoon revolutionaries who have settled in tents on the squares of Yerevan and why they need to protest right now.

And here, based on the competent point of view of the professor, we can draw a number of our own conclusions. If the United States really moves from passive assistance to Pashinyan to active in the near future, then we may witness public speeches by certain American congressmen with statements condemning the opposition actions in Yerevan. And then the American "Armenian radio" of the Diaspora, which is in close contact with the US political administration, will also speak. Russia, of course, will not remain indifferent and will try to tighten the screws, strengthening the actions of allegedly pro-national opposition forces. But the question is how much finance Moscow is ready to invest in this "street" project. Obviously, Washington will allocate more anyway. Consequently, in the near future, we can expect a fierce battle between the United States and Russia for control over the Armenian reality. And even bloody scenarios are not excluded…

On the other hand, one can very confidently believe that in the event of Pashinyan's victory and the collapse of street protests, the work on signing a peace treaty and all other processes between Azerbaijan and Armenia will noticeably intensify. Baku, of course, will only benefit from this. Moreover, if the United States decides that Armenia should "close" the Karabakh issue by agreeing to all the demands of Azerbaijan, then the position of the Americans will approach Pashinyan's since the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear that he is ready to say goodbye to the Armenian "Karabakh dream" in exchange for big preferences and the most favourable offers from Baku. Having made such a political deal with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan will finally have the opportunity to deal with the Karabakh clan, which he hates very much, based on the logic of "no land, no problem". Pashinyan, an Armenian from Yerevan, has little to do with the Karabakh land, which the Armenian revanchists so falsely "dream" of, playing on the mood of the crowd. However, it is quite clear that most of the Armenian society is already far from this rhetoric, preferring to look at everything that is happening in Yerevan from the windows of their apartments.

Caliber.Az