Russia wants to raise Ukraine war status to global level
Colonel Zhdanov for Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  24 June 2022 - 10:04

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in reserve, Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov.

- What, in your opinion, is the current operational situation at the front?

- What can I say - there is good news and not so much. The bad news is that we are likely to leave the settlements of Hirske and Zolote in the near future. I'll explain why I have to do this. It is necessary to withdraw the troops so that they do not get surrounded. Now there are battles in Severodonetsk, and it is partially under our control, and Lysychansk is completely controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For the time being, Russia is regrouping in all other areas in Luhansk Region. There are battles going on in the Donetsk sector, but the enemy has no success there. In the direction of Zaporizhzhya, we are moving slowly, but also in the direction of Melitopol and Kherson. There are also fights going on in the Kryvyy Rih area.

The situation in Kharkiv is difficult because Russian artillery is firing from all sides and trying to attack our positions, although again it has no success. The Russian military has practically returned to the positions from which we knocked them out when we went to the state border. But the Russian Federation continues to launch missile strikes on Odesa. In principle, there is an increase in missile strikes in all our cities. Let's say that seven missiles were fired at Mykolayiv and Dnipropetrovsk Region yesterday [June 22], and, as I said, there were a lot of missile strikes on Kharkiv.

- Does Ukraine launch retaliatory missile strikes against Russia's positions?

- We don't have missiles. There are Tochka-U missile systems, but there are very few of them - both launchers and missiles themselves. This, first of all. Secondly, Russia is shelling Kharkiv from its territory. Logically, in response, we should strike at the territory of Belgorod Region, but we are not firing at the adjacent territory, since there is no official decision of President Zelenskyy to open fire on Russian territory.

- On top of everything else, has Ukraine also faced restrictions on military supplies from abroad?

- Arms supplies are underway, but their volumes and speed are very low. This is the main problem. In general, within the framework of the Ramstein meeting, all European countries theoretically vote to supply weapons, but in fact, when all these assurances are supposed to be fixed in practice, some questions arise, ambiguities, which ultimately slow down supplies. Although relatively recently Ukraine received from Germany self-propelled artillery PzH 2000. So we hope to get more in the near future.

- How long can the war last?

- It is very difficult to predict this. I can only say unequivocally that Old Europe does not believe in our victory and is even afraid of such a possibility. She easily perceives a world in which Russia, not Ukraine, is the winner. Therefore, the Old World is trying to dynamite Ukraine when it comes to military supplies. Roughly speaking, he gives a teaspoon a day of these very weapons. After all, you will agree that the supply of 12 self-propelled howitzers is a drop in the ocean. This policy is mainly applied by Germany and France, which are not interested in a prolonged deterioration of relations with Russia and who expect that they will eventually be able to come to an agreement with Moscow.

- And the UK?

- Great Britain is interested in knocking Russia out of geopolitics and reducing the number of states that are jostling at the top of the global political Olympus. The Anglo-Saxons and Eastern Europe are all those who have experienced the occupation of the Soviet army, and they really support Ukraine, we can say they give the latter. For example, for a small Slovakia, handing over a howitzer division to us is like tearing a huge piece off of yourself. But they agree and are now preparing a contract for the transfer of these weapons because they are well aware of what the Soviet army and the socialist camp are.

- Do you consider the UK initiative to create a military-political union Three Seas (an international initiative that unites 12 EU states and is also known as the Baltic-Adriatic-Black Sea Initiative – ed.) timely?

- Absolutely. In my opinion, regional unions are a substitute for globalism, in which we are up to our ears. It is necessary to create a military-political union Three Seas to form collective security, especially with the closest neighbours and countries that really support Ukraine, first of all, Great Britain.

- Are there any mercenaries in the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

- No. We don't have any mercenaries. There is an international legion, in which foreigners serve under contract, as the legislation of Ukraine allows. In fact, these are legal military personnel, although they are citizens of other countries. At the moment, the international legion is fighting in Severodonetsk. On the part of the Russian Federation, the basis of the combat-ready core at this stage of the war is made up of mercenaries, who are paid about 50 per cent more than contractors.

- How do you think, has the likelihood of Belarus joining the war in Ukraine increased over time?

- I consider this possibility as 50-50. I think Lukashenka will do everything not to join this war. This is his last chance not to be court-martialed. But Putin will do everything to drag Belarus into this war. The fact is that Russia needs to take a short pause to regroup its troops, and Belarus can fill this operational pause to continue the war at the same pace as it is continuing now. However, the involvement of Belarus in the war is unprofitable for Lukashenka, because it can cause serious discontent of the masses in the country, and therefore a direct threat to him personally. On the other hand, Putin may also make an attempt to eliminate him. Nevertheless, I still think that Lukashenka will continue trying to avoid the conflict.

- Given Russia's missile attacks, does something threaten the Baltic states?

- Russia will not be able to do anything against the Baltic states, except for loud statements that "we will take revenge or we will take a terrible revenge". Russia will never attack NATO countries, as it avoids being accused of aggression in every possible way. After all, even Moscow has designated the war in Ukraine as a special operation. But provoking NATO to the first shot in order to accuse the organisation of aggressiveness and immediately offer negotiations to resolve this incident (if NATO, God forbid, shoots a pistol in the direction of the Russian Federation) is Moscow's main task.

Russia wants to raise the war's status to the global level, and then negotiate a settlement not with Kyiv, but with Brussels. And who will be at the head of NATO in Brussels? The USA. Meanwhile, I consider the probability of a world war to be scanty, especially against the background of statements by Stoltenberg and Biden that both NATO and the United States will distance themselves from this conflict as much as possible. NATO, in fact, does not provide Ukraine with any military-technical assistance, only moral support. We receive assistance not from the bloc, but from the countries with which we are in direct contact.

- So Ukraine should not have illusions about the upcoming NATO summit?

- I think that Ukraine should forget about NATO altogether. In Madrid, the alliance will consider the programme of Ukraine's rearmament and its main part will cover the post-war period. That is, in future Ukraine will buy only Western weapons…

Caliber.Az