AI’s double-edged sword: Unveiling hidden costs in technological progress Reflecting on Ilham Aliyev's address at Global Media Forum

Today, humanity is on the brink of the most profound technological transformation in its history. Progress and technology are now inseparable, and many pin their hopes on these advancements to help us navigate and resolve the intricate and seemingly insurmountable issues known as "wicked problems." Yet, should we place our trust in technology without question? Beneath its gleaming exterior, technology harbors a darker side that warrants our attention.

Take green energy, for instance. It's heralded as a key player in combating climate change and reducing pollution. Its major appeal is the reduction of harmful emissions during energy production, which contributes to lowering greenhouse gases and enhancing air quality. Yet, the benefits are not without their caveats. The entire lifecycle of renewable energy systems—from production and installation to transportation — entails greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the disposal of used wind turbine blades and solar panels poses a significant environmental challenge, as these materials often end up in landfills, creating new ecological issues.

In his address at the Second Shusha Global Media Forum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev underscored the need for a balanced view of technological advancements: "I do not rule out that, you may be right – the day may come when they will criticize us for green energy. Because there are many things that are now coming to light about green energy that are making people and decision makers think again. How will those materials be disposed? What will be the fate of batteries and accumulators? That is, a ticking bomb has already been placed underneath it, so that it can explode on someone's head when it is necessary."

Even in the promising realm of green energy, pitfalls abound. As we advance in technology, it's crucial to examine the full scope of its environmental and societal impacts to mitigate potential risks and issues. Unfortunately, green energy is also being leveraged as a tool for geopolitical maneuvering, complicating the situation further. For instance, the US and EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars are driving up costs for consumers and hindering the shift to cleaner energy. This highlights that technological progress is not immune to political influences; simply developing a world-enhancing technology is not enough.

Green energy isn’t the only field with hidden complexities. Take artificial intelligence (AI), another of today's most exciting technologies. Bill Gates notes, "Generative AI has the potential to transform the world in unimaginable ways. It can foster new ideas, products, and services that make our lives easier, more productive, and more creative. It also holds the promise of addressing some of the globe’s most pressing challenges, like climate change, poverty, and disease."

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and creator of the well-known ChatGPT , asserts, "I believe AI will become the greatest force for economic amplification." This sentiment is echoed by renowned futurologist Ray Kurzweil, who, in a recent article in The Economist, anticipates a groundbreaking shift: "By the time children born today enter kindergarten, artificial intelligence is likely to surpass humans in all cognitive tasks, from science to creativity. AI is set to evolve from revolutionizing the digital world to transforming the physical world." Kurzweil forecasts that by 2029, we could see the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — an AI designed to match human intelligence and possess self-learning capabilities.

AI is already addressing several pressing issues, as highlighted in a recent World Economic Forum report. Some key advancements include:

• AI's ability to measure iceberg changes at speeds 10,000 times faster than human capacity.
• The integration of AI, satellite imagery, and environmental expertise to evaluate the effects of deforestation on the climate crisis.
• Enhanced waste management through AI, contributing to more efficient climate change mitigation.
• Sipremo's AI system, which predicts the location, timing, and nature of climate-related disasters.
• Google's DeepMind research lab applying AI to various aspects of climate change, including the development of comprehensive datasets to drive global AI solutions.

These developments showcase AI's growing role in addressing and solving critical global challenges.

While artificial intelligence (AI) offers numerous benefits, it also has a significant dark side. Despite its efficiency in optimizing industrial processes, the environmental impact is substantial. The proliferation of data centers, which power AI and large language models (LLMs), has led to a sharp increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

The rise in data centers, driven by the growing demand for AI technologies, requires enormous amounts of electricity. According to economists at MIT, Google's recent sustainability report reveals a 48% increase in emissions since 2019, while Microsoft has seen a 29% rise since 2020. This increase is largely due to the data-intensive nature of big language models. For instance, a single request to ChatGPT consumes as much energy as running a light bulb for 20 minutes. As demand for these technologies continues to grow, the energy consumption associated with them is expected to escalate significantly.

The trend suggests that major technology companies are approaching energy consumption levels akin to those of large industrialized nations, highlighting a critical challenge in balancing technological advancement with environmental responsibility.

AI’s potential extends beyond its environmental impact; it also poses significant threats in terms of privacy, manipulation, and security. The rapid expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the proliferation of smart devices have led to an explosion in the amount of data collected about individuals. While this data can enhance services, it also raises serious concerns about privacy violations, manipulation, and cyberattacks.

Generative AI introduces new risks, particularly through technologies like deepfakes. These can produce highly realistic fake audio and video content, which could be used to discredit public figures or spread false information. This not only jeopardizes personal security but also threatens political stability and public trust.

Ilham Aliyev has voiced concerns about these dangers, highlighting the serious risks associated with AI's potential for disinformation, fake news, and deepfakes. As AI technology evolves, addressing these challenges becomes crucial to safeguarding both individual privacy and societal integrity. The head of state stated: "Media community and politicians must make a decision, a very serious decision of a restrictive nature. Because this is no longer just fake news, it is a serious threat to life, the safety of societies, countries, individuals, their integrity, privacy, etc. I hope you will be discussing this topic here today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. I hope that an international mechanism can be developed. And this will not be perceived in any way as some kind of infringement of the freedom of speech, etc. – an international mechanism either at the level of an international organization, the UN, I don’t know, the G20, or some key countries in order to put an end to this. This is a huge threat."

This poses a significant threat, as we increasingly immerse ourselves in a world of digital bits rather than physical atoms. Our reliance on online sources for information is growing, and traditional institutions like libraries, museums, and schools have shifted from physical locations to virtual links we click on. This shift underscores the critical need for regulation. In response to these risks, over a thousand AI experts — including notable figures like Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and Evan Sharp — signed an open letter last year urging a six-month halt on the development of AI systems more advanced than GPT-4. Their call for a pause was intended to establish common safety protocols, given that AI now poses a substantial threat to humanity. However, the letter did not lead to substantial changes.

The challenge of regulating AI on a global scale parallels the historical efforts to manage nuclear weapons. As former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned in his piece for Foreign Affairs, "Artificial Intelligence is the new nuclear weapon." He cautions that uncontrolled AI development could ignite a global arms race akin to the one seen during the Cold War. The unpredictability of new technologies, including AI, underscores the need for international cooperation to manage these risks effectively.

Our ancestors once feared apocalyptic scenarios driven by the wrath of deities. Today, the existential threats come from within our own technological advancements: climate change, nuclear weapons, AI, and synthetic biology. Our ability to cause global harm has grown, but our strategies for responsible management have not kept pace. To ensure a future where technology benefits humanity, we must develop a collective responsibility that addresses these global challenges and makes technological advancements safe and universally accessible.

Urkhan Seyidov, a researcher at the Centre for Political Psychology and expert in innovation and strategic communications

Author of "Innovation: Instruction Manual" and "Azerbaijan's Soft Power in the Digital Age."

X: https://x.com/urkhan

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/urxan/