Aliyev and Putin throw cold water on Macron's claims Harsh messages from Astana

It is obvious that the interest of Europe and the US in normalising Armenian-Azerbaijani relations has grown after Azerbaijan closed the Karabakh conflict. The new realities in the region have significantly increased the activity of Western partners, which is evident from the summits in Brussels, Paris, and even Prague.

Meanwhile, amid Armenia's increasingly frequent glances to the West, primarily to France, Paris has added anti-Russian rhetoric to its traditional anti-Azerbaijani and anti-Turkish rhetoric. On October 13, President Emmanuel Macron, in his interview with France 2 TV channel, accused Moscow of purposefully stirring up the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border to destabilize the situation in the Caucasus region and beyond. It is clear that this news was immediately reprinted by almost all Armenian media outlets, interpreting the demarche of France against Russia as a fair act of support to protect the interests of "long-suffering" Armenia. All in all, a very telling message for Russia as well.

The French president's sharp rebuke to Moscow followed a recent meeting in Prague, where Macron and EU Council President Charles Michel held talks with the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan on the margins of the summit of the European Political Community.

In essence, the French leader's statement means that France is ready to assume the function of an active player in the South Caucasus because it is it that is seriously concerned about the escalation of tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and can therefore become a direct regulator of the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Macron's reminder that after the latest escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, it was France that contacted the parties to the conflict through its Foreign Ministry, and he himself immediately held a meeting with Pashinyan at the Elysee Palace, may have two meanings. Firstly, it is a message to Moscow that it is France that has influence over Armenia, not Russia, and secondly, that Paris is ready to take over mediation initiatives on Karabakh from Russia, as the Prague meeting at the summit also demonstrated. There is no doubt that France will continue to lobby for Armenian interests and increase anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric. In fact, this has been the official Paris policy from the very first days of Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories. The complete inaction of France, as the co-chair of the OSCE MG, only confirms this position.

France is pursuing a similar policy today, in the post-conflict period, pushing the interests of Armenians in Europe as far as possible. For example, relatively recently the Senate of the country unanimously adopted a resolution in support of Armenia, describing the actions of Azerbaijan as aggression and gross violations of international law. It is also known that the document calls for sanctions against the Azerbaijani leadership. And this is not the first demarche against Azerbaijan. Immediately after the 44-day war in Karabakh, the French Senate passed a resolution calling on the government to recognise "NKR", which was unequivocally instigated to pressurise Azerbaijan. As is known, on November 18, 2020, a group of pro-Armenian French senators tabled draft resolution No. 145 on the need to recognise the "NKR" and the resolution was hastily passed a few days later.

It is clear that the French state's foreign policy is determined by the government, not the Senate, whose decisions are only advisory in nature, and the resolution it has adopted has no legal force whatsoever. Therefore, Azerbaijan did not pay much attention to this piece of paper, reasonably replying to Paris and the whole world that nobody has the right to demand the withdrawal of the Azerbaijani Army from the territory of their own country. However, the incident undoubtedly undermined Baku's trust in Paris, which high-ranking officials of that country will have to take into account in their future contacts.

There is another example: last September a rally in support of Armenia was held in one of the central squares of Marseille. The rally was organised by the Marseilles branch of the Coordinating Council of Armenian Organisations of France (CCAF) with the participation of MPs from this region, President of Marseilles Martin Vassal, President of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region of France Renaud Muselier, as well as representatives of Marseilles mayoralty and local associations. Participants in the rally voiced insulting remarks against Azerbaijan and Türkiye and the presidents of the two countries, as well as provocative statements regarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and in support of Armenian separatism.

Curiously, French law prohibits leaders and representatives of local government (mayors, regional council presidents, local deputies, and senators) from expressing any form of support for illegal territorial entities not recognised by the French Republic. But when it comes to supporting Armenian separatism, long-established laws in France selectively stop "working".

As for Macron's latest anti-Russian rhetoric, suffice it to recall the reaction of President Putin, who called his French counterpart's statements on Russia's role in the Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations incorrect and unacceptable. Speaking at an expanded meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State in Astana, Putin said the French leader lacked understanding of the conflict itself, as he was insufficiently informed of the positions of the sides. Putin deemed Macron's statements unacceptable, calling them incorrect or perverse, and noted that Russia has always sincerely sought to resolve any conflicts, including those related to and around Karabakh. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also criticized Macron, stressing that his claims that Russia was allegedly using the Karabakh conflict to destabilize the South Caucasus were blatant and totally unacceptable. According to Zakharova, in this way Paris is trying to drive a wedge into Russia's relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the context of Macron's anti-Russian rhetoric, another important political thesis of Baku is worth noting. While this material was being prepared it became known that President Ilham Aliyev, who addressed the CIS Council of the Heads of State in Astana on October 14, stated that Azerbaijan sees no chance for France to play a role in the normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. Undoubtedly, President Aliyev's very unambiguous message to the French government, against the background of statements, including those voiced by President Putin, was a cold shower for President Macron now from the authoritative platform of Astana.