Armenia goes into escalation Azerbaijani, Turkish MPs on Caliber.Az

This month the activity of Armenian militaries has increased sharply both in the zone of temporary responsibility of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh and on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Not a day goes by without reports that Armenians are carrying out armed provocations in one direction or another, including the use of artillery. There is a feeling that Armenians are consistently provoking a spiral of tension. At the same time, it cannot be overlooked that the intensity of the shelling began to increase as the Lachin checkpoint became fully operational.

This begs the question: who is pushing Armenians into these provocations? And what is the Armenian side itself counting on by arranging them?

Turkish political analyst Engin Ozer told Caliber.Az that if we try to understand the situation inside Armenia and the anti-Azerbaijani passions that have been stirred up by various forces, we can understand that [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan is now in a particularly difficult position - the normally functioning Lachin checkpoint, with at least formal support from Russian peacekeepers, causes a barrage of resentment against him. And he needs to find a way out of the situation. Political analysts say the anti-Pashinyan sentiment in Armenia was particularly strong after his trip to Erdogan's inauguration.

"So now Pashinyan must do something to help him, roughly speaking, save face in front of that part of the Armenian public and opposition that is directly calling for a change of government. And make them believe that he is doing everything not to betray Armenia's national interests. Among other things, by shelling the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, the border crossing point in Lachin, Pashinyan creates this appearance. Because Pashinyan understands that he has no way out - Azerbaijan is about to return the whole of Karabakh under its control, and there is no way out of this. And when Pashinyan signs a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, recognising its territorial integrity - and from all appearances, this will happen soon enough - he will say that he tried to do everything to prevent Azerbaijanis from dictating their terms in Karabakh. Simply put, he will say something like: 'I was ready to fight, but the people did not support it, you were not active enough,'" Ozer said.

Another possible scenario, according to the Turkish political analyst, is the Iranian factor.

"There is a feeling that Iran is ready to fight to the end, just so long as the Zangazur corridor is not launched and peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is never concluded. It is to Iran's advantage that military tension reigns in the region. But there is one 'but' here - Pashinyan made sure during the 44-day war that Iran's influence did not stop the liberation of Azerbaijani territories, and the Azerbaijani army solved all its problems. And Pashinyan has no illusions about Tehran's support, even if some Iranian proxies try to create tension in Karabakh, he objectively understands that the way out is still peace with Azerbaijan," Ozer said.

For his part, Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabayov noted that "usually the shootings were stopped by direct contact with the Armenian side, meaning that our military command and the Armenian military command stopped such incidents in the course of operational informal talks. More often, however, this has been facilitated by the Russian military, which has been in contact with both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides.

"As far as I understand, the Russian military command does not show such zeal now. Perhaps in view of the new round of talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the US, the Russian political leadership, together with the military command represented by the Russian peacekeeping contingent, do not believe that such incidents are to their detriment.

Apparently, they have backtracked in order to demonstrate Russia's exclusive role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement and the futility of the negotiation and mediation efforts of Washington and Brussels. Indeed, neither the Americans nor even the Europeans, with their limited mission on the Armenian side, currently have the tools to organize a swift dialogue between the militaries on both sides of the border in order to stop the exchange of fire. From a military point of view, the exchanges of fire initiated by the Armenians make no sense - they will not achieve their strategic, operational or even tactical objectives. And the human casualties on both sides are real and must be stopped.

As far as I know, after the shelling of the checkpoint in Lachin, the Azerbaijani side suspended movement there not only for Armenians but also for transport and the contingent of Russian peacekeepers. If they stand under the hot sun for a day or two, understanding will dawn on both the Armenians and the Russian military commanders. Baku will expect guarantees not only from Armenians but also from the Russian military that shelling of the Azerbaijani checkpoint in Lachin, as well as other border crossings of our country along the entire length of the conditional border will not be repeated," Musabayov said.