"Armenia is in search of an ally to replace Russia" Sociologist Alexander Zhukovsky on Caliber.Az

The year 2022 was not so much successful in resolving the most important political issues concerning Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia as it was emotional for all three countries. Famous Russian sociologist and public figure Alexander Zhukovsky shared his thought with Caliber.Az, emphasizing socio-political aspects of the state policy of Moscow, Baku, and Yerevan.

In the opinion of the Russian sociologist, heads of practically all three states, summing up the results of the past year noted the courage and strength of their armed forces, the relevance and necessity of state apparatuses, and, certainly, the need to realize of goals and tasks in foreseeable future.

"For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking about the results of 2022 in his New Year's address to citizens, emphasized external circumstances: international heterogeneity, unfriendliness, uncertainty, and aggressiveness. Confidence and hope in his army and patriotic citizens were clearly reinforced by adjectives in superlatives and flamboyant statements. At the same time, throughout the year there was a rather passive 'activity' of Russians and expectation of the best from the future insights of nations and countries, an inert bureaucratic inhibition and fatigue with uncertainty were visible. As a result, the feedback of the authorities to the population weakened a process that continues today. In international history, countries have competed and fought hard for new markets and consumer markets. Russia aggressively and proudly continues to lose not only the markets it has won but even its traditional positions. The understanding that the wealth of countries is formed by rationally organized people and not by the spaces they occupy has not yet penetrated the Russian culture of public administration. As a consequence of all this, there has been a reverse emigration of qualified citizens from Russia to the countries of the Central Caucasus. In the 1990s, professional Russian staff was actively leaving the "outskirts" of the USSR because they could not fulfill their potential there. Now they are returning, albeit largely involuntarily, to a freer, more tolerant, and technologically advanced environment.

In its turn, the Azerbaijani government, summing up the results of the last year, has made accents on maintaining the state's internal condition, the spatial victories achieved and the planned results of joint international projects, as well as the high level of independence from external circumstances and pressure that has been achieved.

A significant part of President Ilham Aliyev's last year's address to the Azerbaijani people was dedicated to domestic plans, tasks, the army, and religion. The messages were balanced: passivity/activity, objective confidence in oneself, one's strengths, and partners were visible. By the way, in the current international regrouping the Islamic world looks and acts more united and organized, and the best example of this is the friendly and fraternal alliance between Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

As for Armenia, there, as well as in Russia, the emphasis is placed on unfavorable external circumstances, blaming unreliable partners, and fixing causes, and losses. The country is increasingly on the lookout for new, "reliable" partners, including the EU, based on last year's results. The ending of the Armenian prime minister's address looked like a request on behalf of the ruling regime for forgiveness for the mistakes made," believes Alexander Zhukovsky.

According to the Russian sociologist, at this stage, all three countries are at different points of reference:

Russia is in a stage of looming prostration; Azerbaijan defines what has been achieved; Armenia is in search of the actual.

"It is clear that any complex, evolving, dynamic system is defined by internal ties and stable boundaries. When necessary, the system expands its boundaries or rebuilds the links. The wider the opportunities for internal development, the more sustainable the system is. Analyzing the results of the past year, I am coming to the obvious conclusion that the Russian regime has been 'carried away' by external circumstances to the detriment of internal ones. The regime itself has upset the balance, including on the borders, by putting itself in a knowingly losing position.

The clash with Ukraine, if we exclude humanitarian and moral themes, is primarily a conflict between two similarly motivated oligarchic regimes (one worse than the other), viewing (substituting) the country's potential with its growing private assets in offshore locations. The difference, however, is that Ukraine has already begun to realize this and is turning around, changing, with allies, while Russia is still in prostration and already without allies. The question of the actual reform of state administration, which, by the way, was declared in Russia back in 2002 and hasn't been fulfilled, isn't raised even publicly.

Azerbaijan, on the contrary, having long ago lost its 'patron' in the face of the USSR, optimizing the internal conditions, felt confidence and strength. The 'call of the ancestors' - internal energy - has worked. President Ilham Aliyev's New Year address clearly stressed the reliance on domestic forces and cooperation with partners.

Armenia, on the other hand, is stuck under the wing of Russia, an ally that is losing its potential. Judging by Nikol Pashinyan's address, Armenia is mainly looking for candidates to replace Russia as an ally - in the form of new 'honest' and strong external partners capable of supporting its 'sovereignty'. The emphasis on its own internal development and the revision of its potential is only just being stated. Hence the apparent political indecision. As they say, a tailwind is for those who know where they are sailing, but in the case of Armenia, everything is uncertain. The lack of appropriate political will on the part of the Armenian leadership not only threatens the stability and security of the region and hampers its development, but also has a negative impact on social life, casting great doubt on the future of the small South Caucasus country," Zhukovsky concludes.